Production and Investment

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Steady Overall With Pockets of Stress

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2026

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Intelligence Report: Which Industries Are Investing the Most in AI?

Macro Minute

August 11, 2026

Data on software investment suggest that AI adoption may represent a broad-based shift in how businesses invest.

Samina Stack and John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Capital and AI Investment in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

August 6, 2026

Learn how AI is being used among firms in the Fifth District, and the role firms believe AI will play in the future.

Drew Ngo and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Working Paper

How Do Sectoral Shocks Shape Future GDP?

Working Paper Series

July 2026, No. 26-11

Over a three-year horizon, goods-producing sectors have larger cumulative aggregate effects from productivity shocks than service-producing sectors, despite goods only accounting for less than one-third of GDP.

Paul Ho, Danial Lashkari and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Steady Overall With Pockets of Stress

Regional Matters

July 31, 2026

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Blog Post

Retail Resilience Defies Doomsayers

Macro Minute

July 14, 2026

Recent data suggest that retail businesses and U.S. consumer spending have kicked off summer in full stride, assuaging concerns of a near-term consumer pullback.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Public-Private Partnerships Drive Rural Revitalization

Regional Matters

July 9, 2026

Learn how Clifton Forge, Virginia, in the rural Alleghany Highlands region has faced economic decline and navigated rural revitalization through public, private, and philanthropic partnerships.

Surekha Carpenter and Emily Wavering Corcoran

Podcast

Navigating Today's Supply Shocks

Speaking of the Economy

July 1, 2026

John O'Trakoun discusses the supply shocks resulting from the recent conflicts in the Middle East and how businesses and consumers have responded to these shocks. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

How Much Does the US Economy Rely on Fossil Fuels?

Economic Brief

July 2026, No. 26-21

The aggregate use of fossil fuels in gross output has remained relatively constant for two reasons.

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Article

Is AI Taking Over?

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2026

What do we know and what can we forecast about the implications of artificial intelligence for productivity and the economy?

Anna Kovner
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Surprisingly Solid Demand but Signs of Strain Persist

Regional Matters

June 19, 2026

In the lead up to the June FOMC meeting, businesses reported increased cost pressures, surprisingly resilient demand, and limited pricing power.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

What Foot Traffic Reveals About Demand

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2026

How do economists measure sudden changes to demand and estimate how firms respond to those shocks?

Alexander Tan

Working Paper

Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy

Working Paper Series

May 2026, No. 26-09

The authors model conditions for adopting new technology and discuss the subsidies needed for the best path forward.

Fernando Alvarez, Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now

Regional Matters

May 1, 2026

Businesses reported limited impact from the Middle East conflict in the lead up to the April FOMC meeting, with consumers continuing to spend and more cost pressure and supply chain disruption still to come.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Will AI Investments Pay Off?

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

Artificial intelligence is taking root in the workplace and beyond. How will it impact labor productivity and the wider economy?

Matthew Wells

Working Paper

Estimating Demand Shocks from Foot Traffic: A Big-Data Approach

Working Paper Series

March 2026, No. 26-05

This study uses foot-traffic data and machine learning to separate unpredictable customer demand shocks from strategic business decisions at NYC establishments, revealing significant heterogeneity in shock persistence and trends that pooled analysis would miss.

Marina Azzimonti, David Wiczer and Yang Xuan

Article

Pharmaceutical Onshoring in the Fifth District

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

As pharmaceutical manufacturers look to bring production back to the United States, the Fifth District is attracting billions of dollars in cutting-edge life sciences investments.

Matthew Wells

Article

Noise Bargaining: A New Perspective on Single Proposers, Negotiation and Delays

Economic Brief

November 2025, No. 25-42

A new approach addresses the dynamics of negotiations involving a single proposer and the inherent delays in reaching agreements.

Grey Gordon

Blog Post

Assessing Manufacturing Business Conditions by Firm Size

Regional Matters

November 4, 2025

How does Fifth District manufacturing activity vary by size? The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey found that large firms are more optimistic, including about the impact of recent tariffs, compared to small and mid-sized firms.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Podcast

Stocking Up: What Inventory Levels Say About the Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 15, 2025

Thomas Lubik discusses how inventories are tracked at the firm and aggregate levels and what fluctuations in these levels over time tell us about the health of the overall economy. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting

Working Paper Series

October 2025, No. 25-08

Exploring the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II provides methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts.

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Blog Post

Seeing Double: An AI Bubble?

Macro Minute

October 7, 2025

Will today's AI-related investment turn out to be a repeat of the 1990s telecom boom and bust?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Goodfriend Memorial Lecture: Productivity and Structural Change

Economic Brief

September 2025, No. 25-34

The third annual Marvin Goodfriend lecture, given by Richard Rogerson, covered cross-country sectoral productivity differences.

Richard Rogerson

Article

Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-31

How does the rise in land-use regulation play into the decline in construction sector productivity?

Chen Yeh

Article

Forecasting U.S. Productivity

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-30

How might labor productivity and total factor productivity fare over the rest of the decade?

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Blog Post

Are Companies Saving for a Rainy Day?

Macro Minute

July 15, 2025

The capital expenditure ratio — a signal of business confidence — may reveal whether uncertain business expectations are carrying over to firms' investment decisions and plans for the future.

Kristal Tejeda and John O'Trakoun

Article

South Carolina's Globalized Economy

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Driven by the auto industry, the Palmetto State is a global economic player. How will tariff uncertainty impact its businesses?

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

What Is the Natural Level of Inventories?

Macro Minute

June 24, 2025

Exploring inventories — an enigmatic yet significant aspect of GDP data — can shed light onto business investment patterns, structures, and conditions across different industries over time.

Katherine Anderson, Thomas A. Lubik and Nathan Robino

Blog Post

The Impact of Tariffs on Our Region's Firms

Regional Matters

June 3, 2025

According to our May business surveys, most firms are responding to tariffs in a variety of ways, including planning and implementing price increases, delaying capital expenditures, and changing hiring plans.

Zach Edwards and Nathan Sumner

Article

What Can News Shocks Tell Us About the Effects of AI?

Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-16

Announcements regarding AI can have significant impact on the economy, even if the actual technology isn't enacted for a while.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Has Nuclear Energy's Time Come?

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2025

Growing demand for carbon-free energy has put nuclear back in the spotlight, but hurdles to new development remain.

Tim Sablik

Podcast

What Shapes Productivity Growth?

Speaking of the Economy

April 9, 2025

Pierre-Danie Sarte and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on the components of productivity growth, how that growth has varied over time and across industries, and how much it will benefit from the use of artificial intelligence. Sarte and Lubik are senior advisors in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Auto Industry Has Little Wiggle Room to Navigate Tariff Hikes

Macro Minute

April 8, 2025

Data from the automotive industry seems to suggest car buyers could feel the effects of tariffs sooner rather than later.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Survey

How Are Tariffs Impacting Firms?

March 26, 2025

Our first CFO Survey of 2025 explored the extent to which firms' supplies are imported from countries facing tariffs and how this exposure impacts firms' expectations.

Zach Edwards, Lauren Taylor and Daniel Weitz

Blog Post

How Might Fifth District Firms React to Changing Tariff Policies?

Regional Matters

March 25, 2025

In March, we asked Fifth District businesses about the impacts of tariffs. Most expected to be impacted negatively and anticipated passing through some of the additional costs to customers.

Marina Azzimonti, Zach Edwards, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Acacia Wyckoff

Article

Sectoral Determinants of Aggregate Productivity Growth

Economic Brief

February 2025, No. 25-08

The contributions of various sectors to aggregate productivity growth have shifted significantly since World War II.

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Article

Supply Chain Resilience and the Effects of Economic Shocks

Economic Brief

January 2025, No. 25-02

Economic shocks can be amplified through supply chains. In response, many firms and policies are aiming to increase supply chain resilience.

Nicolas Morales

Article

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2024, No. 24-40

The topics presented included unconventional monetary and fiscal policy, global inflation patterns and worker responses to labor shocks.

Matthew Wells

Survey

How Did the U.S. Elections Impact Firms' Outlook for the Economy?

Dec. 4, 2024

In the most recent CFO Survey, we explored how the economic outlook of financial executives changed following the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections.

Zach Edwards, John Graham and Daniel Weitz

Working Paper

The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-13

This paper explores the role of technological shocks and if their impact triggers a response that resembles business cycles.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Survey

How Does Election Uncertainty Impact Firms?

Sept. 25, 2024

This post explores how firms whose investment plans were negatively impacted by election-related uncertainty differ from non-impacted firms in optimism levels, growth expectations, and investment motivations.

Daniel Weitz

Podcast

AI and Automation Adoption in the Fifth District and Beyond

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 18, 2024

Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Sonya Waddell share survey results on businesses' use of AI tools and other forms of automation, and research on the potential effects of automation on the nation's overall productivity growth. Sarte is a senior advisor and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Boeing South Carolina's Economic Impact: Ten Years After Opening

Regional Matters

September 12, 2024

South Carolina's recruitment of a Boeing assembly plant to North Charleston in the late 2000s boosted the state's aerospace sector and Charleston's local labor market over the subsequent decade.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Article

Sectoral Multipliers and Technology Adoption as Insight Into Growth

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-27

Policies aimed at helping specific sectors better adopt new technologies might see better returns when targeting sectors that affect a wide range of others.

Nicholas Trachter and Lindsay Li

Survey

The Productivity Implications of How CFO Survey Firms are Using AI

Aug. 15, 2024

As the capabilities of generative AI continue to improve, the CFO Survey can provide us insights on the impact these tools are having on firms and the growth of their productivity.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Article

The Productivity Puzzle: AI, Technology Adoption and the Workforce

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-25

Technology improvements may not matter as much as the age and experience of the workforce.

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Blog Post

Automation and AI: What Does Adoption Look Like for Fifth District Businesses?

Regional Matters

June 27, 2024

Firms continue to innovate and automate, although responses from Fifth District business respondents illustrate that we are in the early days of AI adoption.

Emily Wavering Corcoran and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Survey

Do Firms Expect Persistent Pricing Pressures — And Does Automation Make a Difference?

June 20, 2024

The most recent CFO Survey indicates that most firms expect pricing pressures to persist during 2024, and firms implementing automation are expecting slower price growth than those who are not.

Daniel Weitz

Article

Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-19

What are early studies suggesting about how AI may impact labor productivity?

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Article

Artificial Intelligence: Potentials and Prospects

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Economic history and research can provide useful tools for thinking about the future of AI and the challenges and risks along the way.

Zhu Wang

Article

How Do College-Educated Immigrants Affect US Firms and Workers?

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-15

Most native U.S. workers seem to benefit from having immigrant coworkers.

Nicolas Morales

Working Paper

The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery (Revised March 2025)

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-04R

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior.

Parag Mahajan, Nicolas Morales, Kevin Shih, Mingyu Chen and Agostina Brinatti

Survey

The Impact of Automation on Firm Performance and Expectations

March 27, 2024

In this report, we investigate how the firms that adopted automation differ — in performance and expectations — from those that did not adopt automation.

Brent Meyer and Daniel Weitz

Article

Diverging Trends in Market Concentration

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-05

Top firms entering markets don't appear to drive away local businesses.

Nicholas Trachter and Lindsay Li

Article

Inflation Expectations and Price Setting Among Fifth District Firms

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-03

Even though expectations are not paramount in how most firms set their prices, there is evidence that inflation expectations matter.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Digging Into Construction Data

Macro Minute

January 16, 2024

Data from the monthly Construction Spending Report point to a sustained and robust pace of real private construction spending toward the end of 2023.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-36

Jobs held by temporary workers aren't included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows.

Claudia Macaluso

Article

The Collateral Channel and Bank Credit

Economic Brief

October 2023, No. 23-33

What impacts can be seen based on the type of collateral used by businesses?

Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza and Vladimir Yankov

Article

Semiconductor Industrial Policy and the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Will the recently enacted CHIPS Act bring major growth to the region's semiconductor industry?

Matthew Wells

Article

Talking Technology-Enabled Disruption

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Understanding the economic effects of technological change — and of the world-changing disruptions that new technologies may bring about — is important for central bankers.

Charles Gerena

Article

A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-25

Severe weather shocks can have long-lasting impacts on the macroeconomy.

Toan Phan

Article

How Costly Is Rising Market Power for the U.S. Economy?

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-24

A 2020 paper on market power has ignited considerable attention, follow-up and criticism.

Chen Yeh

Podcast

Supply Chain Resilience

Speaking of the Economy

July 26, 2023

Nicolas Morales discusses his research on supply chains and the factors that can help them resist and recover from economic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Morales is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Innovation, Diffusion and Intellectual Property Rights

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-23

How much should imitators compensate innovators for using their ideas?

Zhu Wang

Article

How Much Do Multinational Companies in the U.S. Depend on Immigrant Workers?

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-21

Restrictions on immigration could cause production to shift away from the U.S. to other countries.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Where are the Region's Economies Heading?

Speaking of the Economy

June 28, 2023

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matt Martin share what their business contacts have told them about regional economic conditions in the Fifth District.

Article

Partisan Conflict in the U.S. and Potential Impacts on the Economy

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-20

U.S. politics have become increasingly polarized, and this polarization has impacted the economy.

Marina Azzimonti

Article

How Well Do Firms Retain Customers After Price Increases?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-16

Firm productivity plays a role in how many customers a firm loses after a price increase.

Samira Gholami and Nicholas Trachter

Blog Post

Rough Road Ahead for Auto Sales

Macro Minute

May 16, 2023

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Are Capital Expenditures Getting Too Expensive?

Regional Matters

May 05, 2023

Since the second half of 2022, we have observed firms increasingly pulling back on capital expenditures. This post explores the recent declines in capital investment using data from The CFO Survey and the Richmond Fed monthly business surveys.

Zach Edwards

Podcast

Business Expectations for 2023

Speaking of the Economy

April 12, 2023

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Waddell discuss the expectations of regional and national business leaders about the economy, based on responses to the CFO Survey and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's regional business surveys during the first quarter of 2023.

Working Paper

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms (Revised January 2025)

Working Paper Series

December 2022, No. 22-11R

In this paper, we use new data on daily firm-to-firm transactions from India, coupled with a large exogenous shock that disrupted supply chains to varying degrees.

Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Article

What Makes Supply Chains More Resilient to Economic Shocks?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-46

The lockdowns resulting from COVID-19 provide an opportunity to examine what factors affect the strength of supply chains.

Claire Conzelmann, Nicolas Morales, Gaurav Khanna and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Speech

The Evolution of Technological Disruption

Oct. 3, 2022

President Barkin reflects on the relationship between technological innovation, the economy and monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Economic History of the Shopping Mall — and Its Future (Yes, It Does Have One)

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Malls have been a part of the American cultural and economic fabric for generations. How will they survive recessions, the rise of online shopping, and a pandemic?

Matthew Wells

Article

Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflation, and the Fed

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Today's inflationary snarls reflect both supply shocks and policy stimulus.

John Mullin

Blog Post

Are Recession Fears Replacing Supply Chain Challenges? Evidence from Fifth District Business Surveys

Regional Matters

September 1, 2022

Supply chain disruptions and fluctuating input costs are improving for some Fifth District firms, but the threat of a recession looms large according to August's surveys of businesses.

Zach Edwards

Article

Measuring Employers’ Market Power

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

How competitive is the U.S. labor market? Answering this question quantitatively is helpful for understanding how wages are affected by labor market power, and thus for understanding how workers will be affected by labor policy choices.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Blog Post

What's Behind Firms' Reported Improvements in Meeting Demand?

Regional Matters

July 14, 2022

Fifth District firms recently reported being able to better meet customer demand. A cooling economy may be part of the story.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Article

Information and Core-Periphery Structure in Over-the-Counter Markets

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-23

In the OTC market for credit default swaps, some investors are more central within the trading network than others.

Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Rethinking the Office

May 26, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how firms can optimize the hybrid work environment.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Industrial Development and Convergence

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

In this essay, we describe Marvin Goodfriend's Industrial Development model and ponder its lessons for contemporary policy discussions.

Sergio T. Rebelo and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Blog Post

Goods Riddance

Macro Minute

April 5, 2022

Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

How Does Trade Policy Get Decided?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-11

Consumers who would benefit from lower tariffs on a good tend to matter more when setting trade policy than producers who want higher tariffs.

Santiago M. Pinto

Blog Post

Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?

Regional Matters

February 25, 2022

Fifth District firms report that two years into the pandemic, they still cannot provide enough goods and services to completely meet customer demand.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Services Hitting a Snag on Snarled Supply Chains?

Macro Minute

February 1, 2022

The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Omicron Ominous Overseas

Macro Minute

December 28, 2021

The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

For Want of a Nail

Macro Minute

November 16, 2021

Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

We’re All Out: Firms Struggle to Fully Meet Customer Demand

Regional Matters

November 5, 2021

Amid labor shortages and supply side disruptions, firms are struggling to fully meet demand and many reported they expect this issue to persist.

Roisin McCord

Blog Post

Are Logistical Bottlenecks Easing Yet?

Macro Minute

October 5, 2021

Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Demand for Goods Grows: Will Manufacturers Be Able to Meet It?

Regional Matters

September 2, 2021

Manufacturers have recently seen an increase in orders, but disruptions in the supply chain have made meeting demand a challenge.

Roisin McCord and Alexander Nikolov

Article

Bolstering Regional Economies

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

Some policymakers, researchers, and commentators have expressed their belief that a concerted federal investment in technology, or in research and development, can help level the playing field nationwide and spur economic growth. But is it optimal for all localities to specialize in the same sorts of industries?

Neeraja Deshpande

Article

When Interstates Paved the Way

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

The construction of the Interstate Highway System helped to develop the U.S. economy.

Hailey Phelps

Working Paper

Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach (Revised June 2023)

Working Paper Series

July 2021, No. 21-12R

Sometimes money gets used when it should not, and we investigate why using surveys plus measures.

Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright

Blog Post

Eyes on the Roads (and Bridges) in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

June 29, 2021

This post looks at the current assessment of roads and bridges in the Fifth District and how states have recently allocated federal funds.

Joseph Mengedoth and Alexander Nikolov

Speech

What Could Happen if We Keep Washing Our Hands?

June 22, 2021

Flu incidence declined dramatically during the pandemic. If that were to continue, we could see large social and economic gains, writes President Tom Barkin in his latest essay.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

On Remote Work, Markets Will Decide

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

How much reshuffling of businesses and residents will we see among cities, suburbs, and rural areas? The answer will have important implications for local economies.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?

Regional Matters

May 3, 2021

The economic recovery enabled by the vaccine rollout has increased demand for Fifth District goods and services. But can supply keep up with demand?

Jacob Crouse and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

The CFO Survey: A Window into the Past and the Future

Speaking of the Economy

April 14, 2021

Sonya Waddell, Brent Meyer and John Graham discuss the latest results of the quarterly CFO Survey.

Speech

To Invest in Infrastructure, Invest in People

Feb. 24, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses the importance of training the next generation of infrastructure workers.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Future “Hybrid” Office

Feb. 1, 2021

President Tom Barkin talks about the pandemic’s lasting influence on office life.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Furniture Faces a New Challenge

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Tom Barkin travelled to Hickory, N.C. to take part in a video roundtable with industry leaders. These included five area furniture manufacturing companies, textile suppliers and more.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

The Rise and Sudden Decline of North Carolina Furniture Making

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

In just 10 years, between 1999 and 2009, North Carolina's furniture manufacturing industry lost more than half of its jobs.

John Mullin

Article

What Makes Companies Invest?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Decisions about investment at the firm level are important to the path of economic growth

Hailey Phelps

Article

Unpacking the Meat Industry

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Changes in the meat supply chain have brought benefits, but are vulnerabilities a cause for concern?

Emily Green

Podcast

A Look at the Carolinas Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 16, 2020

Matt Martin provides his take on the tumultuous year that was 2020 and how it impacted economic conditions in North Carolina and South Carolina.

Speech

What’s Ahead? Learning From The CFO Survey

Oct. 15, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discussed the latest CFO Survey results and their implications for the economy at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Idea Diffusion and Property Rights (Revised November 2025)

Working Paper Series

September 2020, No. 20-11R

The authors develop a model of industry evolution that links innovation, diffusion, and intellectual property protection with 18 industries, including automobiles and personal computers to show how industry dynamics shape optimal policy design.

Boyan Jovanovic and Zhu Wang

Working Paper

Bubbles and the Value of Innovation

Working Paper Series

July 2020, No. 20-08

Episodes of booming innovation coincide with intense speculation in financial markets leading to bubbles — increases in market valuations and firm creation followed by a crash.

Valentin Haddad, Paul Ho and Erik Loualiche

Blog Post

What Businesses are Saying About the COVID Crisis

Regional Matters

May 29, 2020

While most businesses surveyed have suffered some negative effects and loss of revenue as result of COVID-19, most remained open and operating, at least partially.

Roisin McCord and Joseph Mengedoth

Working Paper

Plants in Space

Working Paper Series

May 2020, No. 20-05

In this paper, we aim to provide insights into two main questions: First, which firms set up plants in which locations? Second, what determine the scale and location of production? Answering these questions requires us to think about plants and firms as distinct, albeit related, economic entities.

Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Is There News in Inventories?

Working Paper Series

May 2020, No. 20-03

This paper identifies total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and documents a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Speech

The Path to Full Recovery

May 4, 2020

President Tom Barkin wrote about the potential longer-term impact of COVID-19.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Janice Eberly

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

Northwestern University economist on firms' investment decisions, intangible capital, and the college premium

Jessie Romero

Article

Venture Capital Grows Up

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

VC: An American History is an accessible business history of the industry, one that policymakers nationwide and, indeed, worldwide can learn from in thinking about how to encourage investment in startup innovation.

David A. Price

Speech

The Effects of Market Concentration on Suppliers

May 16, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke May 16, 2019 at the Richmond Fed’s “Market Structure and the Macroeconomy” conference.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Sentiment and the Real Economy

May 15, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke May 15, 2019, to the New York Association for Business Economics.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A Practitioner’s Perspective on the Productivity Slowdown

April 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke at the Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting on April 4, 2019, in Richmond.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Ensuring Longer-Term Growth

Jan. 10, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 10, 2019, in Raleigh to the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce at its 2019 Economic Forecast event.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Growth

Jan. 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 4, 2019, at the Maryland Bankers Association’s First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch

Oct. 3, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke on the national economic outlook October 3, 2018, in Charleston, West Virginia.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Fifth District Firms Weigh In on Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

Regional Matters

August 10, 2018

While about half of the firms surveyed expected negative impacts to their own businesses and to the U.S. economy, there was a good portion of firms that believed the tariffs would be good for the overall U.S. economy, even if their firms would not directly benefit.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Are Markets Too Concentrated?

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2018

Industries are increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer firms. But is that a bad thing?

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

The Adoption of Digital Technology: Survey of Fifth District Firms

Regional Matters

May 31, 2018

In April, we surveyed firms about their adoption of technology and how it might translate into prices and employment in the next few years. Most firms reported adopting new technology, although many did not anticipate the technology to notably impact their pricing or employment decisions.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Blog Post

Industry Diversity in Cities

Regional Matters

May 9, 2018

Charlotte, N.C., has the most diverse industrial mix of any Fifth District city. What causes industry diversity in cities?

Michael Stanley

Blog Post

A Sectoral Look of Real Gross Domestic Product by State

Regional Matters

July 7, 2017

Which industries in the Fifth District contributed the most to real GDP in 2016? How does that compare to employment by industry and which industries generate the most output per worker?

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Building the Aerospace Cluster in South Carolina

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

State governments that recognize the tremendous economic value that aircraft manufacturing can bring their communities are actively courting such plants to bolster their aerospace clusters.

Richard Kaglic

Article

The Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

U.S. energy production has risen sharply in recent years and is expected to continue to grow at remarkable rates in coming decades — with benefits for the U.S. economy overall as well as within the Fifth District.

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Working Paper

Whither North Carolina Furniture Manufacturing?

Working Paper Series

September 2004, No. 04-7

Robert L. Lacy