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Wenli Li

Xuan S. Tam

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Blog Post

A penny being held between person's index finger and thumb with a semi-transparent American flag and upwards arrow overlay.

Sentiment Is Sweet When You’re in the Driver’s Seat

Macro Minute

March 26, 2024

Findings from UM's Survey of Consumers suggest that being affiliated with the political party in power makes consumers more engaged and, in turn, more informed about the state of the economy.

John O'Trakoun

Podcast

Marriage Matters When Saving During Retirement

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 14, 2024

Richmond Fed economist John Bailey Jones shares what he has learned about the savings decisions of people when they're single compared to when they're married, particularly during retirement.

Blog Post

Red for rent sign stuck in the ground in front of brick house.

New Renters and the Rent CPI

Macro Minute

February 6, 2024

A significant gap has emerged between the growth rate of rent CPI and new renters. An increase in tenant lease renewal and young adults living at home could be related.

John O'Trakoun

News

Bank Initiative Helps Rural Communities Pursue Economic Growth

Jan. 22, 2024

The Richmond Fed's Rural Investment Collaborative will train 20 rural leaders how to create successful proposals for community funding.

Article

Black and white photo of woman walking into store with prices written on window.

How the Pandemic Era Changed Price-Setting

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

While price-setting is challenging even in normal times, shocks during the past few years, such as the pandemic and inflation, have made it harder.

David A. Price, Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Article

Portfolios Across the U.S. Wealth Distribution

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-39

Portfolio composition varies widely among age groups.

John Bailey Jones and Urvi Neelakantan

Blog Post

Households Feeling Down in the Dumps

Macro Minute

November 28, 2023

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Hunting for Holiday Discounts

Macro Minute

November 14, 2023

This post provides a look at where retail inventory-to-sales ratios may hint at discounts for price-conscious consumers this holiday season.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Is the Goods-to-Services Rotation Over?

Macro Minute

November 7, 2023

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

John O'Trakoun

News

Fed Listens Fosters Feedback on Post-Pandemic Recovery

Oct. 30, 2023

Richmond Fed leaders and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman heard business and community leaders' perspectives on the state of the local economy.

Blog Post

Dwindling Disposable Income

Macro Minute

October 10, 2023

Real disposable personal income growth has been negative for the past three months following 11 consecutive months of gains. This week's post dives into the drivers of this decline.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Sizing Up Spending in a Shutdown Scenario

Macro Minute

October 3, 2023

In this week's post, we explore alternative series that might have been used to measure the strength of consumer demand in the absence of official measures of personal consumption expenditure (PCE).

John O'Trakoun

Article

Melissa Kearney

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

The University of Maryland's Melissa Kearney, author of The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind, on the American fertility decline, the role of social norms, and the link between single-parent households and economic gaps.

David A. Price

Blog Post

A Mother’s Work Is Never Done?

Macro Minute

August 8, 2023

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

Erin Henry and John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Daughter using calculator, computer, and receipts to help mother with home finances.

Households Confront the End of Pandemic-Era Assistance Programs

Regional Matters

July 13, 2023

After almost three years, pandemic-era SNAP enhancements ended this spring. Another support — the pause on federal student loan payments — is ending this fall. Are households ready?

Stephanie Norris

Blog Post

Are Consumers Losing Steam?

Macro Minute

July 11, 2023

While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Savings Still High, but Not for All Households

Macro Minute

June 27, 2023

Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Are Retail Inventories Back to Normal?

Macro Minute

June 20, 2023

In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.

John O'Trakoun

Article

two elders chatting with coffee at the computer

How Well Insured Are Older Americans?

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-19

Long-term care expenses and coverage play a significant role in determining out-of-pocket expenses for older Americans.

Erin Henry, John Bailey Jones and Pauline Sow

Article

Learning From Our District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Last year, the Richmond Fed had over 1,700 community engagements — meetings with bankers, business and community leaders, workers, and public officials. These conversations help us see the region's economy more clearly.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

What Are "Core Retail Sales?"

Macro Minute

May 30, 2023

April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?

John O'Trakoun

Podcast

Unequal Access to Credit

Speaking of the Economy

April 19, 2023

Surekha Carpenter discusses why adequate access to credit is important for individuals and the economy overall, what contributes to gaps in access, and how community development financial institutions have addressed those gaps. Carpenter is a research analyst on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

When Will a Decline in Asking Rents Be Reflected in Rent CPI?

Macro Minute

April 04, 2023

Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Old bald headed man doing some work on a laptop

Wiser Policy for Seniors

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

With the American population aging, Richmond Fed economists are attempting to improve their understanding of the economic decisions facing older people — decisions that are likely to become increasingly important for the U.S. economy as the population distribution skews older.

John Mullin

Blog Post

Saving, Schmaving: Why You Shouldn't Worry About Personal Saving Rates

Macro Minute

March 7, 2023

This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Where the Spending Cutbacks Are

Macro Minute

February 07, 2023

Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Consumer Debt Load Continues to Rise

Macro Minute

January 17, 2023

Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?

John O'Trakoun

Podcast

A Closer Look at the University of Michigan's Consumer Surveys

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 21, 2022

Joanne Hsu talks about the widely followed Surveys of Consumers and the information they provide on inflation expectations. Hsu is director of the surveys and a research associate professor at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. She was a panelist at the "Demystifying Inflation" session of the Richmond Fed's District Dialogues event series on November 7, 2022.

Article

Adjusting to Income Risk

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

Theory predicts that when households' incomes become more volatile, they may save more, work more, or reduce their holdings of risky assets to compensate for their increased risk.

Anthony Hui

Blog Post

Income, Spending and Inflation

Macro Minute

August 16, 2022

Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Do Black Households Face Higher and More Volatile Inflation?

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-25

Many assume that inflation affects all households the same. But that doesn't appear to be true.

Munseob Lee

Blog Post

Experiences and Expectations of Inflation

Macro Minute

June 28, 2022

The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.

Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun

Article

Why Don’t More Young People Buy Stocks?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

Standard life-cycle models of portfolio choice suggest that individuals should participate in the stock market throughout their lives. Yet the data show that this is not typically the case early in life.

Brandon Fuller

Blog Post

Goods Riddance

Macro Minute

April 5, 2022

Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?

John O'Trakoun

Article

photo from November 2021 Richmond Fed Core Week presentations

Firm Closures, a Global Phillips Curve, and More: A Recap of the Fall Research Workshop

Economic Brief

December 2021, No. 21-42

Do payday loan regulations help or harm consumer welfare? How many firms close due to financial market inefficiencies? These were among questions addressed at a recent research workshop.

John Mullin

Blog Post

Spending Spree? No Guarantee

Macro Minute

November 30, 2021

Americans have spent less and saved more during most of the COVID-19 pandemic. What will happen to these accumulated savings is an open question.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Mortgage Refinance Costs and a Better Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Contract

Economic Brief

November 2021, No. 21-38

A decreasing-rate mortgage wouldn't increase its interest rate, but would decline when rates dropped, potentially saving significant refinance costs.

Borys Grochulski

Blog Post

Dipping into Savings

Macro Minute

October 12, 2021

Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Why Do People Save During Retirement?

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-32

Prepping for medical expenses is more important for singles, while leaving bequests is more important for couples.

Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French, John Bailey Jones, Rory McGee and Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Spend as I Do, Not as I Say

Macro Minute

September 28, 2021

How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Private Flood Insurance – Navigating Uncharted Waters

Supervision News Flash

August 2021

Private flood insurance may be a more cost-effective option for customers over policies backed by the National Flood Insurance Program. Let us help you wade through the sea of information.

Dorian R. Henry-Jones

Article

Compliance Perspective: Branch Closings – Are You Considering These Risks?

August 2021

Are you considering all the impacts to your customers when you debate closing a branch? In addition to the economic and financial impact of closing a branch, it’s crucial to consider the legal and compliance risks related to Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) ratings and fair lending as part of a branch evaluation.

Michael Hanna

Blog Post

Bringing Back Services

Macro Minute

August 17, 2021

Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Is Rental Assistance Getting to Those in Need?

Regional Matters

June 3, 2021

Recent legislation has increased emergency rental assistance for renters struggling due to the pandemic, but efficient disbursement has been a challenge in many states.

Stephanie Norris and Peter M. Dolkart

Working Paper

Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?

Working Paper Series

May 2021, No. 21-09

While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses.

Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French, John Bailey Jones and Rory McGee

Podcast

The Economics of Aging in America

Speaking of the Economy

April 30, 2021

John Bailey Jones shares his work on the medical spending of the elderly and other financial decisions people make as they age.

Article

hand reaching through a laptop screen reaching for a wallet

Anatomy of an Account Takeover

Supervision News Flash

March 2021

In the world of cyber fraud, account takeovers loom large. Red flags to look for in order to protect bank customers.

Speech

Will Americans Go on a Spending Spree?

Oct. 21, 2020

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses the recent increase in personal savings and the implications for future spending.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Coronavirus Crisis and Debt Relief

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

Loan forbearance and other debt relief measures have been part of the effort to help struggling households and businesses.

John Mullin

Working Paper

two people reviewing financial documents

Household Financial Distress and the Burden of 'Aggregate' Shocks

Working Paper Series

September 2020, No. 20-12

The goal of this paper is to show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly, meaning there is unequal exposure to macroeconomic risk, and that FD can increase macroeconomic vulnerability.

Kartik B. Athreya, Ryan Mather, José Mustre-del-Río and Juan M. Sanchez

Article

The Coronavirus and the Economy

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

This gallery offers a record of some of the unprecedented economic changes that Americans experienced at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jacob Crouse, David A. Price, Rachel Rodgers, Jessie Romero and Luna Shen

Working Paper

Loan Delinquency Projections for COVID-19

Working Paper Series

April 2020, No. 20-02

The authors forecast the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on loan delinquency rates under three scenarios for unemployment and house price movements.

Grey Gordon and John Bailey Jones

Speech

Restoring Consumer Confidence after COVID-19

April 8, 2020

President Tom Barkin wrote about economic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices (Revised September 2020)

Working Paper Series

March 2020, No. 20-01R

Based on administrative data from Statistics Norway, we find economically significant shifts in households' financial portfolios around individual structural breaks in labor-income volatility.

Yongsung Chang, Jay H. Hong, Marios Karabarbounis, Yicheng Wang and Tao Zhang

Article

What We Don’t Know about What's Next

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

For economic policymakers, the atmosphere of uncertainty creates new challenges in understanding the environment and anticipating the economy's path.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Speech

Confidence, Expectations and Implications for Monetary Policy

July 11, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke July 11, 2019, at the Global Interdependence Center’s Rocky Mountain Economic Summit.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Sentiment and the Real Economy

May 15, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke May 15, 2019, to the New York Association for Business Economics.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Two older workers sitting in front of laptop while looking at documents.

Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees

Economic Brief

May 2019, No. 19-05

Retirees face considerable medical expenses during their remaining lives. Model simulations suggest that although a large amount of that spending can be predicted — based on attributes such as income, health, and marital status — there remains significant dispersion.

John Bailey Jones and Aaron Steelman

Article

Man staring distressfully at a laptop while holding a baby

The Persistence of Financial Distress

Economic Brief

March 2019, No. 19-03

Household financial distress is pervasive. Is this pattern driven by a small share of individuals experiencing persistent distress, by the majority facing more occasional distress, or something in between? Recent research indicates that over a lifetime, financial distress is unlikely for most but very persistent for some.

Kartik B. Athreya and Jessie Romero

Article

Subprime Securitization Hits the Car Lot

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2017

Are fears of a "bubble" in auto lending overstated?

Jessie Romero

Article

Medical Spending in Old Age

Economic Brief

May 2017, No. 17-05

Overall, the government pays more for lower-income individuals than higher-income individuals, but Medicaid is not just a program for the young and the poor. It provides substantial benefits to older adults with higher incomes as well.

John Bailey Jones and Jessie Romero

Article

Are the Kids All Right?

Econ Focus

Third/Fourth Quarter 2016

Many worry that the Great Recession and mounting student debt have stunted millennials' financial development

Tim Sablik

Article

How Couples Approach Portfolio Allocation

Economic Brief

February 2017, No. 17-02

The classical theory of household portfolio allocation finds that the share of household wealth invested in risky assets is independent of the level of household wealth. However, this prediction is at odds with empirical observations.

Helen Fessenden, Nika Lazaryan and Urvi Neelakantan

Article

Scaling Back Debt Subsidies

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2015

Reducing excessive household indebtedness would reduce the likelihood of costly and burdensome workouts when borrowers get in trouble. Regardless of the exact size of the effect, it seems clear that reducing the tax favoritism for debt would help reduce the negative effects of credit booms and busts.

Jeffrey M. Lacker

Publication

Investing over the Life Cycle: One Size Doesn't Fit All

Economic Brief

October 2014, No. 14-10

Are investors ignoring financial advice to their detriment? Research by a number of economists suggests otherwise. Using more detailed lifecycle models, they find that young investors may be considering a number of risk factors not captured by simple investment rules of thumb.

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles (Revised July 2017)

Working Paper Series

June 2014, No. 14-13R

A great uncertainty in the labor market--high unemployment risk, frequent job turnovers, and an unknown career path--prevents young workers from taking too much risk in the financial market. As labor-market uncertainty is resolved over time, workers start taking more risk in their financial portfolios.

Yongsung Chang, Jay H. Hong and Marios Karabarbounis

Working Paper

Payment Choice and Currency Use: Insights from Two Billion Retail Transactions (Revised September 2016)

Working Paper Series

April 2014, No. 14-09R

Using three years of transactions data from a discount retailer with thousands of stores, we study payment variation along three dimensions: transaction size and location; weekly and monthly frequencies; and longer time horizons.

Zhu Wang and Alexander L. Wolman

Working Paper

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Working Paper Series

January 2014, No. 14-01

One suggested hypothesis for the dramatic rise in household borrowing that preceded the financial crisis is that low-income households increased their demand for credit to finance higher consumption expenditures in order to "keep up" with higher-income households.

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mondragon

Publication

How Risky Are Young Borrowers?

Economic Brief

December 2013, No. 13-12

Recent research suggests that young borrowers are actually among the least likely to experience a serious credit card default. One reason why people obtain credit cards early in life may be to build a strong credit history.

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? (Revised June 2014)

Working Paper Series

August 2013, No. 13-09R

Young borrowers are the least experienced financially and, conventionally, thought to be most prone to financial mistakes. We study the relationship between age and financial problems related to credit cards.

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak

Publication

Credit Reports: Have You Checked Yours Lately?

5E Navigator

Credit Reports

This issue directs readers to their credit report and provides a road map for resolving credit report errors.

Grade Level: College, Adult
Resource Type: Publication

Publication

All Mortgages Are Not Created Equal

Economic Brief

January 2013, No. 13-01

This Economic Brief highlights the impact of non-occupant-owner mortgages on the housing crisis.

Karl Rhodes and Breck Robinson

Publication

Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle?

Economic Brief

January 2012, No. 12-01

As households strengthen their balance sheets, their ability to take on new debt to finance consumption is improving, but household debt remains elevated by historical standards, and other determinants of consumer spending remain weak.

R. Andrew Bauer and Betty Joyce Nash

Working Paper

Loan Guarantees for Consumer Credit Markets

Working Paper Series

October 2011, No. 11-06

In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of loan guarantees, in the context of unsecured consumption loans.

Kartik B. Athreya, Xuan S. Tam and Eric R. Young

Working Paper

Mortgage Defaults and Prudential Regulations in a Standard Incomplete Markets Model (Revised February 2014)

Working Paper Series

September 2011, No. 11-05R

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Juan M. Sanchez

Publication

The Earned Income Tax Credit: Recipients, Labor Force Participation, and Credit Constraints

Economic Brief

March 2011, No. 11-03

Kartik B. Athreya and Aaron Steelman

Publication

The Effects of Local Demographic Characteristics and State-Level Legislation on Foreclosure Rates

Economic Brief

September 2010, No. 10-09

Ross Lawrence and Brent C Smith

Working Paper

The Role of Non-Owner-Occupied Homes in the Current Housing and Foreclosure Cycle

Working Paper Series

June 2010, No. 10-11

Breck Robinson and Richard M. Todd

Working Paper

Housing Default: Theory Works and So Does Policy

Working Paper Series

May 2010, No. 10-10

Allen C. Goodman and Brent C Smith

Working Paper

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Paulson "Teaser Freezer" Plan: Evidence from the ABX Index

Working Paper Series

April 2010, No. 10-06

Eliana Balla, Robert E. Carpenter and Breck Robinson

Working Paper

Residential Mortgage Default: The Roles of House Price Volatility, Euphoria and the Borrower's Put Option

Working Paper Series

March 2010, No. 10-02

Wayne R. Archer and Brent C Smith

Publication

Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures

Economic Brief

September 2009, No. 09-09

Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak and Stephen Slivinski

Working Paper

Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Theory and Evidence from U.S. States (Revised June 2010)

Working Paper Series

July 2009, No. 09-10R

Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak

Working Paper

Credit and Self-Employment

Working Paper Series

April 2009, No. 09-5

Kartik B. Athreya and Ahmet Akyol

Working Paper

The Role of Information in the Rise in Consumer Bankruptcies

Working Paper Series

April 2009, No. 09-4

Juan M. Sanchez

Publication

Rationalizing Financial Literacy Policy

Economic Brief

March 2009, No. 09-03

Kartik B. Athreya and Anne Stiwell

Working Paper

A Quantitative Theory of Information and Unsecured Credit (Revised July 2011)

Working Paper Series

October 2008, No. 08-6R

Kartik B. Athreya, Xuan S. Tam and Eric R. Young

Working Paper

Optimal Personal Bankruptcy Design: A Mirrlees Approach

Working Paper Series

September 2008, No. 08-5

Borys Grochulski

Working Paper

Long-Duration Bonds and Sovereign Defaults (Revised July 2009)

Working Paper Series

May 2008, No. 08-2R

We show that, when we assume that the government issues bonds with a duration similar to the average duration of sovereign bonds in emerging economies, the model generates an interest rate that is substantially higher and more volatile than the one obtained assuming one-quarter bonds.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

Working Paper

The Anatomy of U.S. Personal Bankruptcy under Chapter 13

Working Paper Series

September 2007, No. 07-5

Hülya Eraslan, Wenli Li and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Working Paper

A Literature Review on the Effectiveness of Financial Education

Working Paper Series

June 2007, No. 07-3

Matthew Martin
Regional Executive

Speech

Retail Financial Innovation

June 14, 2005

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke June 14, 2005 at the 109th Annual Convention of the North Carolina Bankers Association in Kiawah, S.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Unsecured Debt with Public Insurance: From Bad to Worse (Revised: Nov. 2004)

Working Paper Series

November 2003, No. 03-14R

Kartik B. Athreya and Nicole B. Simpson

Working Paper

Fresh Start or Head Start? Uniform Bankruptcy Exemptions and Welfare (Revised: Jul. 2004)

Working Paper Series

May 2003, No. 03-3R

Kartik B. Athreya

Working Paper

Risky Higher Education and Subsidies

Working Paper Series

August 2003, No. 03-2

Ahmet Akyol and Kartik B. Athreya

Working Paper

The Macroeconomics of U.S. Consumer Bankruptcy Choice: Chapter 7 or Chapter 13?

Working Paper Series

September 2002, No. 02-1

Wenli Li and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

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Household and Consumer Finance