Economic Growth

News

Brick entry way labeled Old town Winchester

Navigating Growth and Community Dynamics in Winchester, Virginia

July 18, 2024

Winchester, Virginia, is known for its blend of history, culture and natural beauty, making it a popular destination for visitors and a vibrant community for its residents. The Winchester Metro Area is the fastest growing metro area in the state of Virginia, with its population growing at almost five times the rate of Virginia as a whole. In May, our Community Conversations team visited the Winchester area to learn more about their economic strengths and opportunities.

Blog Post

Two factory workers in hard hats and safety vests review the guide for a piece of equipment.

Visualizing the Breadth of Job Gains

Macro Minute

July 16, 2024

With sentiment about the labor market appearing to soften, we explore some ways to visualize the breadth of recent jobs growth across industries.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Small model house sitting and coins sitting on top of paper with charts.

Diving Into Private Fixed Investment

Macro Minute

July 2, 2024

This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

A woman buying her son new clothes in a store. She’s at the checkout, paying contactless with her smartphone.

Why Were Forecasts Off?

June 28, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores why it has been particularly challenging to predict the path of the economy over the last few years.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Do Research Universities Recession Proof Their Regions? Evidence from State Flagship College Towns

Working Paper Series

June 2024, No. 24-05

This paper provides evidence on the regional resiliency impact of research universities by estimating the effects of recent U.S. recessions on local unemployment.

Robert Calvert Jump and Adam Scavette

Article

Illustration of a lightbulb with an internal brainstem that says AI and surrounding blocks that represent people.

Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-19

What are early studies suggesting about how AI may impact labor productivity?

Andreas Hornstein

Blog Post

Financial analyst pointing to data on a stock market chart.

Searching for Signals in a Stock Market Surge

Macro Minute

June 18, 2024

The stock market is way up, and households know it. A consumption-supporting wealth effect, an overvalued stock market, and expecting strong future output growth are three possible causes.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Illustration of a diverse array of silhouettes in overlaid on a city landscape.

How Do Demographics Influence r*?

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-18

Demographic factors can simultaneously work in opposite directions when it comes to r*.

Paul Ho

Conference

2024 Investing in Rural America: Building and Sustaining Momentum

May 21, 2024

Building relationships, developing the next generation of leaders and innovation. These were among the takeaways recently shared by panelists and presenters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s fifth annual Investing in Rural America Conference, which took place in Roanoke, Virginia, and showcased the efforts of stakeholders to build strong partnerships, develop innovative programs that address community needs, and educate and retain a talented workforce in their small towns and rural communities.

News

Tom Barkin and Matt Martin visiting North Carolina’s Surry and Yadkin counties

A ‘Grow Your Own’ Approach to Workforce Development in Northwestern North Carolina

May 16, 2024

In April, President Tom Barkin, Regional Executive Matt Martin and Regional Economist Laura Ullrich met with local community and business leaders in North Carolina’s Surry and Yadkin counties to gain a fuller understanding of the economic strengths and opportunities facing the region as part of the Bank’s Community Conversations program.

Program

District Dialogues: How Is the Economy, Really?

May 15, 2024

Upcoming Event: The general public is invited to join the Richmond Fed on Wednesday, May 15, for an enlightening conversation on the state of the economy, consumer and business sentiments, and the potential implications of any disconnect between the two. Registration required.

Speech

Navigating Data Whiplash

May 6, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on recent data and shares his view on where the U.S. economy is headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

China's flag with semitransparent line graph on top showing an upward economic trend.

Can China Avoid a Liquidity-Trap Recession? Some Unintended Consequences of Macroprudential Policies

Economic Brief

April 2024, No. 24-12

Some think such a trap for China is imminent, due to factors such as a surge in deposits, mounting deflationary pressures and high youth unemployment rates.

Russell Wong

Podcast

Figuring Out Maryland's Out-Migration

Speaking of the Economy

April 17, 2024

Adam Scavette, a regional economist at the Baltimore branch of the Richmond Fed, and Keith Waters of George Mason University discuss their analysis of migration patterns in Maryland and how they might help explain a significant reduction in the state's workforce since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

Trio of bikers riding across a wooden bridge atop swamp-like water.

Investing in the Great Outdoors

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Some rural and small-town communities see potential for outdoor recreation to reinvigorate their economies.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Which Fed Districts Look Most Like the U.S.?

Macro Minute

April 16, 2024

In this week's post, we rank districts according to how similar they are to the overall U.S. in terms of the industry composition of their GDP.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Is There a Place for Place-Based Policies?

Speaking of the Economy

April 10, 2024

Richmond Fed economist Santiago Pinto discusses what economists have learned about policies intended to promote economic development in specific communities. He also outlines the intended and unintended spillover effects beyond the targeted communities.

Speech

How You Might Look at Recent Data

April 4, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores different ways to look at recent data, and then gives his own perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Purple and blue abstract financial graph with layered trend lines and columns.

Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-10

The pattern of r* paths for other countries seem more alike to each other than they are to the U.S.

Thomas A. Lubik, Brennan Merone and Nathan Robino

News

President Tom Barkin sits with others to discuss at the roundtable

Harvesting New Ideas in Peanut Country

March 11, 2024

From quaint storefronts offering a variety of gourmet peanuts to sprawling farms where generations have perfected their craft, this area has solidified its spot as an important part of Virginia’s agricultural economy thanks to its continued commitment to one of America’s favorite legumes. But as our Community Conversations team learned on a recent trip to Southeastern Virginia, the pull between maintaining a rural, small town feel and embracing the potential benefits of urbanization hangs in the balance.

Blog Post

Small business owner, wearing an apron, sits at a desk as she adds up the day's sales in a notebook and enters the data into her laptop.

Signals From Small Businesses

Macro Minute

March 5, 2024

Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Overhead view of Earth focusing on the United States. There are lights heavily populated across the country representing different hotspots.

Are Place-Based Policies a Boon for Everyone?

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-07

Helping one area could mean hurting another area.

Santiago Pinto

Article

President Tom Barkin visiting Western North Carolina

Community, Resiliency and Innovation in Western North Carolina

Feb. 21, 2024

Western North Carolina is known for stunning mountain views, the eclectic tourist hotspot Asheville, and the opulent former residency of the Vanderbilts, the Biltmore Estate. But, as our Community Conversations team learned as they traveled an hour west of Asheville to places like Jackson County and the Qualla Boundary, Western North Carolina is also home to a strong sense of community, resiliency and innovation.

News

Bank Initiative Helps Rural Communities Pursue Economic Growth

Jan. 22, 2024

The Richmond Fed's Rural Investment Collaborative will train 20 rural leaders how to create successful proposals for community funding.

Article

Blue parachute attached to the word "economy", slowly lowering to ground below.

Of Soft, Hard and Aborted Landings

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-02

How has the economy navigated previous rate cycles, and how do they compare to the current one?

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Speech

Heading for a Soft Landing?

Jan. 3, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on 2023 and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Office with many IT workers sitting in front of computers.

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Webinar

Economics in the Hot Seat

Nov. 30, 2023

Upcoming Event: What do Uber and the Federal Reserve have in common? They both hire economists! Did you know that some of your favorite brands also hire economists? But what do economists actually do? Registration required.

News

South Carolina Counties Investing in Workforce Development

Nov. 30, 2023

The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team visited two South Carolina counties that are partnering with schools to prepare a skilled workforce.

News

Speakers on stage at the 2023 District Dialogues Community Colleges event.

Bank Shares New Success Metric for Community Colleges

Nov. 29, 2023

The Richmond Fed hosted two programs on November 15 that unveiled a new approach to measuring the success of community colleges.

Speech

A crane and construction equipment being used to build a new apartment complex

The Housing Challenge

Nov. 15, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how communities in the Fifth District are working to move the needle on housing.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

News

Erika in red dress writing on the easel paper

Bank Partners With Rural Leaders to Foster Capital Investments

Nov. 13, 2023

The Richmond Fed Community Development team hosted the Rural Investment Collaborative retreat in Charlotte in early November.

Speech

A paved road in the forest forks into two directions

What’s Next for the Economy?

Nov. 9, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores potential paths for the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Man with safety vest examining his tablet inside of a factory.

How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-36

Jobs held by temporary workers aren't included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows.

Claudia Macaluso

News

Fed Listens Fosters Feedback on Post-Pandemic Recovery

Oct. 30, 2023

Richmond Fed leaders and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman heard business and community leaders' perspectives on the state of the local economy.

News

Community Conversations VA Northern Neck

Bank Leaders Find Growth Opportunities in Northern Neck

Oct. 25, 2023

The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team learned about the economic diversity in Virginia's Northern Neck during a recent visit.

Forum

woman holding a microphone in front of a group of people

Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy

Oct. 18, 2023

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will lead a discussion about the lingering impact of the pandemic on the economy and the workforce. The general public is invited to listen in, via livestream, as Barkin, Bowman and several special guests explore the challenges and opportunities that exist as the region served by the Richmond Fed continues the transition to a new normal.

News

Tom Barkin sits at table with other leaders discussing Community Conversations in West Virginia

Bank Leaders Find Future-Focused Progress in West Virginia Coal Mining Towns

Oct. 3, 2023

A recent Community Conversations visit to southern West Virginia revealed efforts underway to transform the economy from coal-based to one sustained by natural resources.

Article

The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model

Economic Brief

September 2023, No. 23-32

The updates result in a less volatile r* series that more closely reflects our prior belief as to where r* likely is.

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Article

Adapting Sovereign Debt to Climate Change

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

How quickly a country recovers from climate-related disasters is influenced by its ability to attract foreign capital — making recovery challenging for emerging economies.

David Ramachandran

Article

Talking Technology-Enabled Disruption

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Understanding the economic effects of technological change — and of the world-changing disruptions that new technologies may bring about — is important for central bankers.

Charles Gerena

News

Regional Collaboration Helps Mountain Towns Get Creative

Aug. 31, 2023

A Community Conversations visit to two counties in rural western Virginia showcased inviting landscapes that offer opportunities for economic growth.

News

Bank President Tom Barkin visited with community leaders on the Eastern Shore during a Community Conversations visit to the region.

Two Maryland Regions Adjusting to Cyclical Changes

Aug. 28, 2023

Bank leaders spent time with leaders in Anne Arundel County in mid-July and Caroline, Talbot and Dorchester counties in mid-August.

Blog Post

Circle of Life: What Is the Birth-Death Adjustment?

Macro Minute

August 15, 2023

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Conference

Economist engaging a speaker at CORE Week

CORE Week, featuring the Climate Economics Conference

July 31, 2023 - Aug. 4, 2023

Article

How Costly Is Rising Market Power for the U.S. Economy?

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-24

A 2020 paper on market power has ignited considerable attention, follow-up and criticism.

Chen Yeh

News

Matt Martin and Tom Barkin watch a man demonstrate a device

Community Conversations Team Canvasses South Carolina

July 24, 2023

The Richmond Fed's Community Conversations team discovered a similar focus on workforce development and affordable housing in two regions of South Carolina.

News

two women and one man discussing business on a glass wall with sticky notes

Richmond Fed Partners With Atlanta Fed for Southeast Regional Supplier Diversity Summit

July 17, 2023

The Richmond Fed is partnering with the Atlanta Fed to host the Southeast Regional Supplier Diversity Summit on September 19 at our Charlotte branch.

Podcast

This Paper Blew My Mind

Speaking of the Economy

July 12, 2023

On the 100th episode of the podcast, three leaders of the Richmond Fed 's Research department — Kartik Athreya, Huberto Ennis and Ann Macheras — share the research paper that had a major impact on their careers and the economics profession in general. Paper topics range from bank runs to insuring against risks to knowledge spillovers.

Blog Post

Are Consumers Losing Steam?

Macro Minute

July 11, 2023

While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

The Effects of Higher Borrowing Costs: Insights from Sovereign Default Models

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-22

Higher borrowing costs for a sovereign can impact its GDP, consumption and investment, among other items.

Grey Gordon

News

Community Development Philanthropy Convening

Bank Brings Together Experts to Discuss Funding for Rural Projects

June 22, 2023

The Bank hosted national, regional and local funders to discuss how to more strategically provide rural communities with access to capital.

Conference

CORE Week branded image of a presenter talking about his paper to economists

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

News

A street corner showing shops in downtown Wytheville, Va.

Bank Team Discovers Economic Potential in Southwest Virginia Town

June 20, 2023

The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team visited Wythe County to explore the region's promises and possibilities.

Article

Daron Acemoglu

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

MIT's Daron Acemoglu, the author of Why Nations Fail and Power and Progress, on Henry Ford, making AI worker-friendly, and how democracy improves economic growth.

David A. Price

Article

A woman network engineer working on equipment in a wiring closet.

Virginia's Data Centers and Economic Development

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Leveraging some of its natural advantages, Virginia has encouraged the industry's growth through tax incentives and other initiatives. It is now home to hundreds of data centers, many in Northern Virginia's "Data Center Alley."

John Mullin

Article

Community Conversations

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Since becoming President of the Richmond Fed in 2018, Tom Barkin has made spending time throughout the Fifth District his goal. One of the ways the Richmond Fed's research department supports this goal is through an event series known as Community Conversations.

Tim Sablik

Article

A whiteboard with words about Monetary Policy

Why Are Economists Still Uncertain About the Effects of Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-15

Even though economists have made huge leaps in understanding how monetary policy impacts the economy, there remains substantial disagreement and imprecision in the estimates.

Paul Ho

Podcast

Person looking through window at opportunities

Creative Destruction: The Birth and Death of Firms

Speaking of the Economy

May 17, 2023

Hugo Hopenhayn discusses his research on the factors that affect the entry and exit of firms in a market, as well as the reallocation of labor and other resources that results from this "creative destruction." Hopenhayn is a professor of economics at UCLA and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

effects of new casinos on regional economies

The Economic Impact of a Casino Monopoly: Evidence from Atlantic City

Working Paper Series

May 2023, No. 23-07

New Jersey voters approved legalized gambling for Atlantic City in a 1976 referendum. The state explicitly leveraged the city's regional monopoly on casinos east of the Mississippi River as an economic development strategy to revive the blighted seaside resort town.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Article

Looking at a computer screen about applying for Unemployment Benefits

Unemployment Changes as Recession Indicators

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-13

Changes in unemployment appear to be strong recession predictors, especially when combined with lagged term spreads.

Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation

Working Paper Series

March 2023, No. 23-06

We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk.

Toan Phan and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Image of calculator and pen laying on an upwards trending graph.

Firm Price-Setting Behavior Amid Elevated Price Growth: Evidence From Our Surveys

Regional Matters

March 28, 2023

Fifth District firms have experienced faster price growth since 2021. Increased uncertainty coincided with firms adjusting their own prices more frequently than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jason Kosakow and Adam Scavette

Article

Fed Balance Sheet Normalization and the Minimum Level of Ample Reserves

Economic Brief

February 2023, No. 23-07

Just by allowing the securities in its portfolio to mature, the Fed could reach a normalized size of its balance sheet in two to three years.

Huberto M. Ennis and Tre' McMillan

Article

Why Are Startups Important for the Economy?

Economic Brief

February 2023, No. 23-06

The startup rate has been declining for decades, but another measure of business growth has spiked since the pandemic started.

Chen Yeh

Podcast

Start-Up Surge

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 18, 2023

Chen Yeh discusses the factors that have contributed to an increase in new business formation during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic implications of this entrepreneurship surge. Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Secular Trends in Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-02

Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.

Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Article

How Does Trade Impact the Way GDP Growth and Inflation Comove Across Countries?

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-01

Seemingly small international trade linkages can lead to substantial spillovers across countries, helping explain global comovement in GDP growth and inflation across countries.

Paul Ho, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Podcast

Manufacturing and service sector surveys

What Surveys Say About the Regional and National Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 7, 2022

Jason Kosakow and Santiago Pinto describe how survey data is gathered and used to assess regional and national economic conditions. Kosakow is survey director and Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Building A Pipeline Between Producer and Consumer Prices

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-38

The relationship between the producer price index and consumer price indexes has not always been clear.

John O'Trakoun and David Ramachandran

Article

How Speculation Affects the Market and Outcome-Based Values of Innovation

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-35

During bubbles, an innovation raises a company's stock price by more than it would otherwise, and competing company stock prices don't suffer as much.

Valentin Haddad, Paul Ho and Erik Loualiche

Article

Casinos and Regional Economies: Has the Game Changed?

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-28

As legal gambling options proliferate, commercial casino expansion is less likely to induce economic growth.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Article

The Impacts of Immigration: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-27

How does immigration policy impact economic growth? Do firms that hire more skilled immigrants perform better? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Podcast

man scratching head as an arrow points downward against the backdrop of a dollar bill

Prospects for a Recession: A Perspective From the CFO Survey

Speaking of the Economy

June 29, 2022

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell shares insights from the latest survey of chief financial officers and other financial decision-makers at companies across the United States. Waddell is a vice president and economist at the Richmond Fed.

Speech

Group of businesspeople raising their hands to ask questions during a conference

The Recession Question

June 21, 2022

As the Fed works to contain inflation, many ask whether we are headed into a recession. President Barkin shares his perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

What Are Leading Indicators Telling Us About Economic Growth?

Macro Minute

May 31, 2022

For decades, economists have been looking for leading indicators that can signal the future direction of the overall economy. In today's post, we look at a few of these indicators and what they suggest for growth going forward.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Can Immigration Help Boost Rural Economies in the Fifth District and Beyond?

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-18

When immigration is restricted in rural areas, native workers don't seem to fill the jobs left empty.

Nicolas Morales

Article

GDP Fall Doesn’t Tell All

Macro Minute

May 10, 2022

The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure of provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Industrial Development and Convergence

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

In this essay, we describe Marvin Goodfriend's Industrial Development model and ponder its lessons for contemporary policy discussions.

Sergio T. Rebelo and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Article

Relative Price Changes Are Unlikely to Account for Recent High Inflation

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-10

The recent high inflation had been due to price changes in a small group of expenditures, but that changed a few months ago.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Pinelopi Goldberg

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

Yale University economist on developing countries, measuring economies by satellite, and the learning crisis.

David A. Price

Article

illustrative image of infrastructure construction

Does Infrastructure Spending Boost the Economy?

Economic Brief

February 2022, No. 22-04

Studies suggest that short-term effects of such spending are small and long-term effects depend on an economy's sensitivity to such investment.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

illustrative image about news and inventories

How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories

Economic Brief

January 2022, No. 22-03

News about productivity shocks — even when these shocks have not even happened yet — seems to be a powerful additional source of economic fluctuations.

Thomas A. Lubik, Christoph Gortz and Christopher Gunn

Essay

A business person reviewing charts in a notebook and tablet

The Economy: What We’ve Learned

Jan. 13, 2022

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

image depicting stores located on a busy street

How Do Firms Choose Where to Place Establishments?

Economic Brief

October 2021, No. 21-34

Firms with high productivity place more establishments in dense locations and fewer establishments in low density locations.

Samira Gholami and Nicholas Trachter

Article

Vision of an upward arrow with Ben Franklin's $100 image in background

How Broad-Based Is the Recent High Inflation?

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-30

The annualized PCE inflation rate over the period March through July is 6.5 percent, the highest five-month rate since November 1981.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

How Much Does Household Consumption Impact Business Cycles?

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-25

Household consumption shocks have accounted for close to 40 percent of pre-pandemic business cycle fluctuations.

Christian Matthes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Cushioning Destruction to Foster Creation

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

The Power of Creative Destruction ties the need for social insurance to the crucial roles played by social norms and civil society.

John Mullin

Blog Post

Wages Are Rising: How Far Will They Go?

Regional Matters

August 5, 2021

Surveyed Fifth District firms are raising wages at an above normal pace as they struggle to fill open positions.

Roisin McCord

Article

Can an Individual Large Firm Impact the U.S. Business Cycle?

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-24

Contrary to the traditional view, adverse events for a single firm can affect the economy as a whole, if the firm is large enough.

Chen Yeh

Article

What Does the FOMC's Shift in Fed Funds Rate Target Language Mean?

Economic Brief

July 2021, No. 21-22

The new language — which has been in each FOMC statement since September — represents a significant shift in the committee's thinking.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Was There a Better Way to Contain COVID-19?

Economic Brief

June 2021, No. 21-18

Targeted interventions toward COVID-19, rather than universal stay-at-home orders, might have resulted in less economic damage and fewer deaths, according to one researcher.

Andreas Hornstein

Blog Post

Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?

Regional Matters

May 3, 2021

The economic recovery enabled by the vaccine rollout has increased demand for Fifth District goods and services. But can supply keep up with demand?

Jacob Crouse and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

The CFO Survey: A Window into the Past and the Future

Speaking of the Economy

April 14, 2021

Sonya Waddell, Brent Meyer and John Graham discuss the latest results of the quarterly CFO Survey.

Article

Why Don't Low-Income Countries Adopt More Productive Technologies?

Economic Brief

April 2021, No. 21-11

A new theory of economic development integrates two existing paradigms to show that reducing distortions in "big push" regions could unleash massive growth.

Reiko Laski and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Big Push in Distorted Economies

Working Paper Series

March 2021, No. 21-07

Many countries have industrialized and grown rapidly by adopting modern technologies. Why don't poor countries adopt more productive technologies? Is there a role for policies that coordinate technology adoption?

Francisco Buera, Hugo Hopenhayn, Yongseok Shin and Nicholas Trachter

Article

College-Educated Immigrants Bolster U.S. Productivity

Economic Brief

March 2021, No. 21-08

This brief discusses the main contributions that college-educated immigrants make to U.S. productivity growth, such as providing scarce skills that supplement and complement skills of native workers, contributing disproportionately to innovation and promoting job creation in the United States by foreign-based multinational corporations.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Tracking the Economy in Real Time

Speaking of the Economy

March 11, 2021

Marios Karabarbounis, Nicholas Trachter, and Adam Blandin discuss using high-frequency datasets to track the economy's health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Working Paper

Searching for Hysteresis

Working Paper Series

February 2021, No. 21-03

In this paper we embark on an empirical search for hysteresis. While the theoretical channels for the transmission of hysteresis shocks are well-understood, empirical evidence is few and far between.

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Delving into Climate Change Economics

Economic Brief

January 2021, No. 21-02

By quantifying climate change's effects and assessing potential mitigation and adaptation techniques, economists contribute valuable perspectives to conversations about the planet's future. This brief summarizes presentations from the Richmond Fed's November 2020 conference on climate change economics.

Molly Harnish

Speech

What’s Ahead? Learning From The CFO Survey

Oct. 15, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discussed the latest CFO Survey results and their implications for the economy at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Economy and the Question of Inflation

Sept. 24, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin spoke about the outlook for inflation at a webinar hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Restoring Consumer Confidence after COVID-19

April 8, 2020

President Tom Barkin wrote about economic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

View of Richmond, VA with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond looming tall

Is a Recession Around the Corner?

Jan. 9, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discusses economic conditions and the potential for a recession.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Is a Recession Around the Corner?

Jan. 3, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discusses economic conditions and the potential for a recession.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Risk Management in Monetary Policy

Sept. 26, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke September 26, 2019 to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

big fish eats medium fish who eats small fish who takes bait of a coin

Are Markets Becoming Less Competitive?

Economic Brief

June 2019, No. 19-06

National markets in many U.S. industries seem to be increasingly dominated by large companies. Some policymakers have argued that this growing market concentration is a sign of weakening competition, but concentration by itself does not necessarily translate into market power.

Tim Sablik and Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Challenges to Women’s Labor Force Participation

June 3, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to the Charlotte Economics Club on women's labor force participation, including trends, challenges and solutions.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Ensuring Longer-Term Growth

Jan. 10, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 10, 2019, in Raleigh to the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce at its 2019 Economic Forecast event.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Growth

Jan. 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 4, 2019, at the Maryland Bankers Association’s First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch

Oct. 3, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke on the national economic outlook October 3, 2018, in Charleston, West Virginia.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Closing the Gap

Sept. 28, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivered remarks to a Federal Reserve conference on minorities in banking.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Unlocking Our Potential

Aug. 8, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to community and business leaders in Roanoke, Virginia, about strategies to boost economic growth.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Bad conditions creeping across a city and field

The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth

Economic Brief

August 2018, No. 18-08

Riccardo Colacito, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Catching a Ride in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

July 31, 2018

Ride-sharing services have been competing with the taxi industry and encountering regulatory spats, yet they have grown markedly, particularly around the District of Columbia.

Caitlin Dutta

Speech

A Conversation With Tom Barkin

May 7, 2018

President Tom Barkin spoke at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. on May 7, 2018.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Business Dynamics in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

July 28, 2017

The dynamics of firm creation and exit are an important engine of economic growth. Researchers have noted that there has been a slowing in business dynamics in the United States in recent decades. Is the same true for the Fifth District and our jurisdictions?

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Blog Post

A Sectoral Look of Real Gross Domestic Product by State

Regional Matters

July 7, 2017

Which industries in the Fifth District contributed the most to real GDP in 2016? How does that compare to employment by industry and which industries generate the most output per worker?

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Blog Post

Ties That Bind: The Carolinas in an Integrated Global Economy

Regional Matters

March 22, 2017

While increased global integration required painful adjustments for some workers and communities as well as companies and even entire industries, there have also been significant benefits to this global interconnectedness, including in the Carolinas.

Richard Kaglic

Article

Does Redistribution Increase Output?

Economic Brief

January 2017, No. 17-01

According to conventional wisdom, wealth redistribution boosts output by increasing aggregate consumption. However, while redistributive policies can have a short-run stimulative effect on consumption, their effect on output depends, potentially quite importantly, on the nature of household labor supply.

Kartik B. Athreya, Andrew Owens, Jessie Romero and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

A "New Normal"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States

Economic Brief

July 2016, No. 16-07

Economic growth in the United States following the Great Recession has been well below the post-World War II average. Some observers have called this the "new normal."

Aaron Steelman and John A. Weinberg

Article

The Competitiveness of Inner Cities

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2015

Are the majority of inner cities experiencing a renaissance thanks to rapid gentrification, or is growth limited to a small number of high-technology regions, resulting in inequality among metropolitan areas?

Lisa Davis

Speech

Education, Innovation and Economic Growth

Feb. 10, 2015

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker spoke about innovation and human capital at the 2015 Emerging Issues Forum.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Annual Report - 2015

Annual Report

2015

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article "A 'New Normal'? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States"

Article

Crowded

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

While more is not always merrier, population growth over the last century has had many positive effects

Tim Sablik

Article

Nicholas Bloom

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Stanford University economist on the effects of economic uncertainty, the role of management practices in economic performance, and fostering good management

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Prospects for Growth and Labor Markets

Oct. 9, 2014

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the national economic outlook during the Bank’s Regional Forum in Asheville, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, July 2014

July 8, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-08

This paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers.

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed (Revised May 2015)

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-06R

In this paper, we show that variations in the discount factor estimated using inventories correlate well with established independent measures of credit market frictions.

Thomas A. Lubik, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

Economic Outlook, February 2014

Feb. 4, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Feb. 4, 2014, in remarks to students, faculty and community leaders at Shenandoah University in Winchester, Virginia.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2014

Jan. 17, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Working Paper Series

January 2014, No. 14-01

One suggested hypothesis for the dramatic rise in household borrowing that preceded the financial crisis is that low-income households increased their demand for credit to finance higher consumption expenditures in order to "keep up" with higher-income households.

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mondragon

Publication

Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

Economic Brief

January 2014, No. 14-01

In response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, the federal government enacted a number of emergency fiscal policies intended to aid recovery. However, the unconventional and transitory nature of these fiscal policies may have contributed to greater economic uncertainty.

Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Speech

Economic Outlook, November 2013

Nov. 21, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook in remarks to business and community leaders in Asheboro, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-15

In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession.

Christian Matthes and Josef Hollmayr

Working Paper

The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy (Revised July 2017)

Working Paper Series

September 2013, No. 13-14R

We study the impact of intersectoral and interregional trade linkages in propagating disaggregated productivity changes to the rest of the economy.

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Fernando Parro and Lorenzo Caliendo

Publication

Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy?

Economic Brief

September 2013, No. 13-09

Concerns about fiscal imbalances in Europe and the United States have led to intense debates about whether governments should dramatically cut spending or increase taxes to reduce government debt — a course of action often called fiscal "austerity."

Renee Haltom and Thomas A. Lubik

Publication

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

May 2013, No. 13-05

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Publication

Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search

Economic Brief

April 2013, No. 13-04

A new database of online job posting data sheds light on how workers search for jobs.

Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

Working Paper Series

February 2013, No. 13-01R

This paper provides a theoretical framework to quantitatively investigate the optimal accumulation of international reserves to hedge against rollover risk.

Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

Publication

Explaining an Industry Cluster: The Case of U.S. Car Makers from 1895-1969

Economic Brief

October 2012, No. 12-10

David A. Price and Zhu Wang

Working Paper

Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data (Revised September 2014)

Working Paper Series

April 2012, No. 12-03R

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev

Working Paper

Sales, Inventories, and Real Interest Rates: A Century of Stylized Facts

Working Paper Series

April 2012, No. 12-02

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Working Paper Series

March 2012, No. 12-01

This paper examines the optimality of fiscal rules and measures their aggregate effects using a baseline sovereign default framework.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

Publication

Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle?

Economic Brief

January 2012, No. 12-01

As households strengthen their balance sheets, their ability to take on new debt to finance consumption is improving, but household debt remains elevated by historical standards, and other determinants of consumer spending remain weak.

R. Andrew Bauer and Betty Joyce Nash

Publication

Recoveries From Recessions Associated With Banking Crises: How Does This One Compare?

Economic Brief

November 2011, No. 11-11

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, David A. Price and Jonathan Tompkins

Working Paper

Transition Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model: The Case of South Korea (Revised August 2013)

Working Paper Series

August 2011, No. 11-04R

Yongsung Chang and Andreas Hornstein

Publication

Is Stimulative Fiscal Policy More Effective at the Zero Lower Bound?

Economic Brief

August 2011, No. 11-08

Several recent research efforts have found that stimulative fiscal policy — government spending or tax cuts — can have unusual effects when nominal interest rates are as low as they are today. In particular, some studies have found that the government spending "multiplier" can be much larger at the zero lower bound.

Renee Haltom and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Speech

What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

July 28, 2011

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Time to Produce and Emerging Market Crises (Revised July 2012)

Working Paper Series

October 2010, No. 10-15R

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Publication

The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: The Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)

Economic Brief

October 2010, No. 10-10

Marianna Kudlyak, David A. Price and Juan M. Sanchez

Working Paper

The Cyclical Price of Labor When Wages Are Smoothed

Working Paper Series

August 2010, No. 10-13

Marianna Kudlyak

Publication

How Useful Are Consumer Surveys as Macroeconomic Indicators?

Economic Brief

July 2010, No. 10-07

Roy H. Webb

Working Paper

On the Job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market

Working Paper Series

June 2010, No. 10-12

Michael U. Krause and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Learning About Informational Rigidities from Sectoral Data and Diffusion Indices

Working Paper Series

May 2010, No. 10-09

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Working Paper

Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk (Revised February 2012)

Working Paper Series

May 2010, No. 10-08R

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Cesar Sosa Padilla

Working Paper

Quantifying the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Development

Working Paper Series

April 2010, No. 10-05

Jeremy Greenwood, Juan M. Sanchez and Cheng Wang

Working Paper

Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models: Solution Methods Matter

Working Paper Series

March 2010, No. 10-04

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Horacio Sapriza

Working Paper

Inventories, Inflation Dynamics, and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Working Paper Series

February 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Wing Leong Teo

Speech

The Economic Outlook, January 2010

Jan. 8, 2010

President Lacker addresses the Maryland Bankers Association

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Region Focus - Fall 2009

Region Focus

Fall 2009

Cover Story: The Price is Right? Has the financial crisis provided a fatal blow to the efficient market hypothesis?

Working Paper

On the Cyclicality of the Interest Rate in Emerging Economy Models: Solution Methods Matter

Working Paper Series

October 2009, No. 09-13

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Horacio Sapriza

Publication

The Case for Direct Methods to Address CO2 Emissions and Other Negative Environmental Externalities

Economic Brief

October 2009, No. 09-10

Existing policies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) largely have been structured to subsidize alternative energy technologies. Yet these policies are likely not to be as useful as ones that target CO2 emissions directly, such as an emissions tax or a "cap and trade" program.

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

Working Paper

The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor (Revised: March 2013)

Working Paper Series

September 2009, No. 09-12R

Marianna Kudlyak

Working Paper

Notes on Collateral Constraints in a Simple Model of Housing

Working Paper Series

April 2009, No. 09-3

Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets

Working Paper Series

February 2009, No. 09-1

In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical.

Gabriel Cuadra, Juan M. Sanchez and Horacio Sapriza

Working Paper

Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs (Revised August 2009)

Working Paper Series

December 2008, No. 08-8R

Jeremy Greenwood, Juan M. Sanchez and Cheng Wang

Working Paper

The Lucas Critique and the Stability of Empirical Models

Working Paper Series

May 2006, No. 06-5

Thomas A. Lubik and Paolo Surico

Working Paper

Nontraded Goods, Market Segmentation, and Exchange Rates

Working Paper Series

May 2006, No. 06-3

Michael Dotsey and Margarida Duarte

Working Paper

Optimal Public Investment with and without Government Commitment

Working Paper Series

August 2003, No. 03-10

We analyze the problem of optimal public investment when government purchases of productive capital assets are financed through income taxes.

Marina Azzimonti, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jorge Soares

Working Paper

Growth Effects of Progressive Taxes

Working Paper Series

November 2001, No. 01-9

Wenli Li and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte