Monetary Policy

Podcast

What's the Fed Doing with its Balance Sheet Now?

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 7, 2026

Huberto Ennis provides an updated view of the Federal Reserve's management of its balance sheet and the flow of reserves between banks, which were the focus of a recent conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Ennis is group vice president for micro, macro and financial economics at the Richmond Fed.

Article

Close up of a person making pencil marks on a printed-out chart with a spread of reports surrounding.

How Data Revisions and Uncertainty Affect Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

January 2026, No. 26-01

Macroeconomic data revisions appear to be smaller than they were a few decades ago, but they still pose challenges for real-time economic analysis.

Thomas A. Lubik and Jacob Titcomb

Speech

Tuning In: 2026 Outlook

Jan. 6, 2026

President Tom Barkin reflects on 2025 and shares his economic outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

News

Barkin Speaking to Raleigh Chamber on January 6

Jan. 6, 2026

Podcast

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin giving a speech

Year in Review with Tom Barkin

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 17, 2025

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back at 2025 and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of uncertainty and changes in the economy, including trade policy, consumer sentiment, and labor market demand and supply. He also discusses how monetary policymakers have navigated the year.

Article

Operating With Limited Data

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

While the government shutdown delayed official data releases, private sector data and outreach efforts helped Fed policymakers keep a pulse on the economy.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Podcast

Update on the Fed's Framework

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 19, 2025

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's recent unveiling of its revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, highlighting what has changed and what has remained consistent with past statements. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

Operating with Limited Data

Nov. 18, 2025

President Tom Barkin shares his perspective on the economy and how the Richmond Fed's outreach efforts inform it.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

News

Barkin Speaking November 18 in Winchester, Virginia

Nov. 18, 2025

Article

Data Measurement and Monetary Policy

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

The economic data that monetary policymakers rely on is often noisy and imperfect. Collecting additional signals about economic outcomes can help.

Anna Kovner
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Working Paper

Stack of coins with a curve of fluctuating prices of financial markets.

What is the Impact of a Major Unconventional Monetary Policy Intervention?

Working Paper Series

September 2025, No. 25-07

This post uses a major central bank announcement, the "whatever it takes" speech, to determine how a credible announcement of an unconventional monetary policy intervention affects bank lending standards during crises.

Carlo Alcaraz, Stijn Claessens, Gabriel Cuadra, David Marques-Ibanez and Horacio Sapriza

Speech

Staying Sanguine About the Horizon

Sept. 26, 2025

President Tom Barkin discusses risks to both sides of the dual mandate and shares his outlook for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

News

Barkin Speaks in Washington on September 26

Sept. 26, 2025

Article

Job applicants waiting in a line of chairs as they review their notes.

How to Gauge Maximum Employment

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-32

The Fed's "maximum employment" mandate isn't directly measurable, so how can we tell if the economy is close?

Marios Karabarbounis

Speech

Woman holds a toddler while examining groceries at a grocery store

Why the Consumer Matters

Aug. 12, 2025

The fog is lifting. President Tom Barkin explores why the road ahead for the U.S. economy may be bumpy but bearable.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data

June 26, 2025

President Tom Barkin discusses what he’s seeing in the data, hearing from businesses and expecting in the months to come.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

What is the Fed's Policy Framework?

Speaking of the Economy

June 4, 2025

Grey Gordon and Felipe Schwartzman discuss the creation and evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework and the Fed's current review of the framework. Gordon and Schwartzman are senior economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Dashboard oil pressure gauge has a scale showing spelling out "inflation" and a needle pointing at the danger red zone.

The Rabbit-Duck Question: What Caused the Recent Inflation Surge?

Economic Brief

May 2025, No. 25-20

Viewing the rise in inflation through a single perspective may mean missing part of the picture.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Marble doorway that reads "Federal Reserve"

Good Data is Hard to Find

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2025

New challenges have emerged to the production of economic statistics. How are Fed researchers and policymakers adjusting?

Tim Sablik

Speech

Driving through Economic Fog

March 27, 2025

President Tom Barkin considers the economic outlook amid elevated uncertainty.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Inflation Then and Now

Feb. 25, 2025

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Dollar sign within a circle, floating above an outstretched hand, with arrows coming out of the left and right sides

Keeping Dollars Flowing Around the Globe

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 15, 2025

Ricardo Reis discusses how swap lines have supported the flow of US currency into global financial markets to meet their liquidity needs and the dollar's prominence in those markets, especially during the 2007-08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Reis is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

2025 Economic Outlook

Jan. 3, 2025

President Tom Barkin reflects on the past year and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Center for Advancing Women in Economics (AWE)

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2024, No. 24-40

The topics presented included unconventional monetary and fiscal policy, global inflation patterns and worker responses to labor shocks.

Matthew Wells

Working Paper

A teetering seesaw with wooden figurines representing people balanced on each side sits on a pile of money.

Minority Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

December 2024, No. 24-16

This paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races.

Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

the word "inflation" with a small chart on newsprint

The Relationship Between Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes

Working Paper Series

December 2024, No. 24-15

The authors show that there has been a more general relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative price changes during the extended period of inflation stability in the U.S.

Andreas Hornstein, Francisco Ruge-Murcia and Alexander L. Wolman

Article

The Fed's Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed loaned billions of dollars to central banks in desperate need of them.

Matthew Wells

Podcast

Gauge with different percentage levels marked in different colors

Will Interest Rates Remain Elevated as Monetary Policy Normalizes?

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 4, 2024

Felipe Schwartzman explains how he and other economists define the natural rate of interest, what factors have influenced this theoretical estimate of where long-term interest rates will settle, and what it tells us about how the cost of savings and borrowing will respond as monetary policy normalizes after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Podcast

A Conversation with the Richmond Fed's New Research Director

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 20, 2024

For our 150th episode, Anna Kovner reviews her career path to becoming the research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and reflects on the work of the Bank's Research department. Kovner also offers her views on various topics — including the banking turmoil of 2023, the Fed's "lender of last resort" role, current risks to the financial system, and the "neutral rate" of interest — as well as the current state of the national economy.

Article

Close up of compass with map and lighthouse overlay to demonstrate charting course.

Examining the Differences in r* Estimates

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-36

A careful comparison of the approaches allows policymakers to discern possible strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Thomas A. Lubik and Paul Ho

Working Paper

An overlay of upward-facing arrows with percent signs and stock market charts over top of assorted stacks of coins.

The Politics of Debt in the Era of Rising Rates

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-12

Researchers examine how the post-pandemic trajectory of risk-free rates affects sovereign debt management and default risk in emerging markets (EMs).

Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra

Speech

How Did the Economy Get Here?

Nov. 12, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores where the U.S. economy is today, how it got here and where it may be headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Why Not Declare Victory?

Oct. 2, 2024

President Tom Barkin shares his views on the economy and the recent rate cut, and then looks to what could come next.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Conference

Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate: Tools to Teach Full Employment and Price Stability

Oct. 1, 2024

Working Paper

People using an ATM machine with others waiting in line.

Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time (Revised September 2024)

Working Paper Series

September 2024, No. 24-10R

This paper offers novel insights on modern bank runs using confidential data on wholesale and retail payments to detail the bank runs of March 2023.

Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach and Anna Kovner

Working Paper

Economic chart showing stock market shifts with a silhouette of business professionals shaking hands behind the chart.

Corporate Bond Market Distress

Working Paper Series

September 2024, No. 24-09

The authors show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy.

Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Anna Kovner and Or Shachar

Working Paper

Three stacks of coins with a letter block on top that spell out "g" "d" "p."

Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth

Working Paper Series

September 2024, No. 24-08

The authors find evidence that bank capital matters for the tails of future GDP growth, with a relationship that is particularly strong in reducing the probability of the worst GDP outcomes. The relationship between bank capital and growth, however, is not strong for its central tendency.

Nina Boyarchenko, Domenico Giannone and Anna Kovner

Article

Abstract illustration of financial data being shown with a bar chart.

Will Interest Rates Remain Elevated Even as Monetary Policy Normalizes?

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-28

Several factors may have been permanently altered since the onset of the pandemic.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Angled view of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building on a sunny day against a blue sky

Independence, If You Can Keep It

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

What exactly does it mean for a central bank, created by Congress, to be "independent," and how is the Fed in its current form accountable to elected leaders and the public at large?

Sam Louis Taylor

Article

Image of dollar bill with the word fed spelled out in letter blocks

Central Bank Lending Lessons from the 2023 Bank Crisis

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

The Fed moved quickly to support the financial system during a banking panic last spring. Now, policymakers are evaluating what they learned.

Tim Sablik

Article

Raghuram Rajan

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Economist Raghuram Rajan on leading a central bank, creating a digital payment system, and India's future in professional services.

David A. Price

Article

Milton Friedman, Dissenter

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Milton Friedman, the architect of modern monetarism and an advocate for free markets, was an energetic public intellectual who greatly influenced economics.

Julian Kikuchi

Speech

A woman buying her son new clothes in a store. She’s at the checkout, paying contactless with her smartphone.

Why Were Forecasts Off?

June 28, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores why it has been particularly challenging to predict the path of the economy over the last few years.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Illustration of a man in a suit looking at a large question mark figure.

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Election Years

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-20

Economic policy uncertainty rises significantly leading up to an election and stays elevated for a couple months after the election is over.

Marina Azzimonti

Webinar

Inside the Fed: What Does the Federal Reserve Do and Why Does It Matter?

June 25, 2024

Article

Illustration of a lightbulb with an internal brainstem that says AI and surrounding blocks that represent people.

Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-19

What are early studies suggesting about how AI may impact labor productivity?

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Article

Illustration of a diverse array of silhouettes in overlaid on a city landscape.

How Do Demographics Influence r*?

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-18

Demographic factors can simultaneously work in opposite directions when it comes to r*.

Paul Ho

Podcast

The Fed's Inflation Target

Speaking of the Economy

May 22, 2024

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's establishment of an inflation target in 2012 and how that has fit within the Fed's evolving monetary policy framework. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Richmond Fed.

Speech

Navigating Data Whiplash

May 6, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on recent data and shares his view on where the U.S. economy is headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

China's flag with semitransparent line graph on top showing an upward economic trend.

Can China Avoid a Liquidity-Trap Recession? Some Unintended Consequences of Macroprudential Policies

Economic Brief

April 2024, No. 24-12

Some think such a trap for China is imminent, due to factors such as a surge in deposits, mounting deflationary pressures and high youth unemployment rates.

Russell Wong

Article

A Forecasting Personality Test

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

It's easy to see why people might differ on the path forward for the economy — each forecaster sees the future through his or her own lens.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

When Economists Navigate by the Stars

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Taking into account the uncertainty of the state of the world is the hallmark of good policymaking in economics. Moreover, r* and other stars are just one of many inputs in this process.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

The Origins of the 2 Percent Inflation Target

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

The FOMC established its explicit inflation target in January 2012 after a decades-long deliberation. It came in part from the Richmond Fed.

Matthew Wells

Speech

How You Might Look at Recent Data

April 4, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores different ways to look at recent data, and then gives his own perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Purple and blue abstract financial graph with layered trend lines and columns.

Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-10

The pattern of r* paths for other countries seem more alike to each other than they are to the U.S.

Thomas A. Lubik, Brennan Merone and Nathan Robino

Speech

Inflation: Handle With Care

Feb. 8, 2024

Recent data have been remarkable. President Tom Barkin shares why he still sees reasons for caution.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Blue parachute attached to the word "economy", slowly lowering to ground below.

Of Soft, Hard and Aborted Landings

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-02

How has the economy navigated previous rate cycles, and how do they compare to the current one?

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Podcast

Charting the Path of Interest Rates

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 10, 2024

Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes discuss how economists wrestle with measuring the natural rate of interest or r-star, why this measure is important for monetary policymakers, and how their model has evolved to better chart the path of interest rates. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Matthes is a professor of economics at Indiana University.

Speech

Heading for a Soft Landing?

Jan. 3, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on 2023 and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Federal Reserve meeting room with leather chairs surrounding long table.

Reserve Bank Boards of Directors

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

The Reserve Bank boards of directors are a key link between the Federal Reserve System and the communities it serves, working to achieve the dual mandate and formulate monetary policy.

Matthew Wells

Speech

A crane and construction equipment being used to build a new apartment complex

The Housing Challenge

Nov. 15, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how communities in the Fifth District are working to move the needle on housing.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Overhead shot of Earth with global connections highlghted

Economic Spillovers Across Borders

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 15, 2023

Paul Ho talks about how countries are connected to each other through international trade and how these connections help spread economic shocks across the globe. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

A paved road in the forest forks into two directions

What’s Next for the Economy?

Nov. 9, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores potential paths for the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Forum

woman holding a microphone in front of a group of people

Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy

Oct. 18, 2023

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will lead a discussion about the lingering impact of the pandemic on the economy and the workforce. The general public is invited to listen in, via livestream, as Barkin, Bowman and several special guests explore the challenges and opportunities that exist as the region served by the Richmond Fed continues the transition to a new normal.

Workshop

A whiteboard with words about Monetary Policy

Personalizing Monetary Policy: How Does Monetary Policy Affect You?

Oct. 17, 2023

Speech

Tom Barkin meeting with community members in a cafe

Looking Beyond Recent Data

Oct. 17, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses what he is hearing on the ground from Fifth District contacts, and how it compares to recent data.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Warehouse supervisor walking and talking with senior manager

The New Job Hierarchy

Sept. 28, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model

Economic Brief

September 2023, No. 23-32

The updates result in a less volatile r* series that more closely reflects our prior belief as to where r* likely is.

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Podcast

Where is the Credit Crunch?

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 27, 2023

Sonya Waddell and Chen Yeh provide an update on credit market conditions, based on recent results of the CFO Survey and other surveys of borrowers and lenders. They also discuss the macroeconomic forces that shape the supply and demand sides of the market, including the current round of monetary policy tightening. Waddell is a vice president and economist and Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Market graph of different trend lines overlapping.

A Small Contribution to Measuring the Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission

Economic Brief

September 2023, No. 23-30

What is the typical lag between market interest rate increases and increases in CD and MMMF balances? Is the recent increase unusually large, or is more in store?

Alexander L. Wolman

Podcast

Uncertainty About the Effects of Monetary Policy

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 9, 2023

Paul Ho talks about how economists model the interactions between monetary policy and the economy and the challenges of determining the economic effects of policy with precision. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

A hand erasing question marks on a blackboard

Recession Revisited

Aug. 3, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses what’s driving the resilient U.S. economy and where it may be headed next.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Rate Hikes and Credit Tightening

Macro Minute

August 1, 2023

How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Conference

Economist engaging a speaker at CORE Week

CORE Week, featuring the Climate Economics Conference

July 31 – Aug. 4, 2023

Conference

CORE Week branded image of a presenter talking about his paper to economists

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

Speech

Close up of a person's hand swiping a credit card.

The Inflation Story

June 16, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores a plausible story for how inflation returns to target.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Side-by-side image of President Andrew Jackson and Nicholas Biddle, President of the Second Bank of the United States.

The Bank War

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson triggered the demise of America's second central bank with a stroke of his veto pen.

Matthew Wells

Article

Why Are Economists Still Uncertain About the Effects of Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-15

Even though economists have made huge leaps in understanding how monetary policy impacts the economy, there remains substantial disagreement and imprecision in the estimates.

Paul Ho

Working Paper

a small piggy bank and a big piggy bank balanced on a seesaw

Unemployment Insurance when the Wealth Distribution Matters

Working Paper Series

May 2023, No. 23-08

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of unemployment insurance in general equilibrium using a life-cycle model.

Facundo Piguillem, Hernán Ruffo and Nicholas Trachter

Article

Detecting Inflation Instability

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-11

Do relative price changes account for the behavior of inflation in the pandemic and post-pandemic eras?

Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

The Need to Be Nimble

March 30, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses recent data and events and explores potential implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

A View of Monetary History (Part 2)

Speaking of the Economy

March 8, 2023

In part two of this two-part conversation, Robert Hetzel focuses on the Fed's policies during the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation and after the Great Recession, as well as the role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond during these periods.

Podcast

A View of Monetary History (Part 1)

Speaking of the Economy

March 8, 2023

In part one of this two-part conversation, Robert Hetzel discusses the Fed's policy shifts in the two decades following the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond during that period.

Article

The Fed, the Stock Market, and the "Greenspan Put"

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

Market commentors noticed a pattern during Alan Greenspan's tenure as Fed chair from 1987 to 2006. The Fed, it appeared to some, had developed a policy of bailing out stock investors by injecting liquidity into the economy amid large stock market declines. This perceived tendency came to be called the "Greenspan put."

John Mullin

Speech

Woman holding a receipt while seated at a laptop

What’s Keeping Inflation Elevated?

March 3, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses how he sees the economy, and the implications for inflation and for policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Trade-offs in Fulfilling the Fed’s Dual Mandate

Economic Brief

March 2023, No. 23-08

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Fed Balance Sheet Normalization and the Minimum Level of Ample Reserves

Economic Brief

February 2023, No. 23-07

Just by allowing the securities in its portfolio to mature, the Fed could reach a normalized size of its balance sheet in two to three years.

Huberto M. Ennis and Tre' McMillan

Podcast

Tom Barkin on Inflation and the Fed's Response

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 8, 2023

Tom Barkin discusses the state of inflation and the monetary policy response of the Federal Reserve, as well as his outlook on the national economy. Barkin is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

Directional sign silhouetted against the sunset.

2023 Economic Outlook

Jan. 12, 2023

President Tom Barkin reflects on monetary policy and the economy in 2022 and shares his thoughts on what’s ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

The Fed's Balance Sheet

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 11, 2023

Huberto Ennis explores how the Federal Reserve used its asset purchases to deal with market disruptions and the unprecedented economic issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. He also discusses why and how the Fed is unwinding these purchases. Ennis is group vice president for macro and financial economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

Inflation in the Economy: Getting Here, and Looking Ahead

Jan. 6, 2023

The past few years have seen unprecedented real economy shocks, which are particularly hard to deal with for any central bank, and so drove a lot of the inflation in the wake of the pandemic's arrival.

Kartik Athreya
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Article

How Long Will Higher Inflation Last?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

For the first time in more than a generation, we are grappling with high, broad-based, and persistent inflation. Is there an end in sight?

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Inflation and the Road Ahead for Research

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

While the Fed has never been a stranger to criticism, the criticism has been notable and specific during the past year. The subject: inflation.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

The Future of Forward Guidance

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

Talking about the future has become a valuable tool of monetary policy, but recent events have prompted a reevaluation.

Tim Sablik

Podcast

How Long Will Inflation Stick Around?

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 16, 2022

John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel Sarte discuss the persistence of inflation over the years and what may set apart the current period of elevated prices compared to historical patterns. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist and Sarte is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Applied Macro-Econometrics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-43

Techniques at the frontiers of econometrics were addressed by economists during a recent research conference.

John Mullin

Podcast

The Fed vs. Inflation: Monetary Policy Under the Microscope

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 19, 2022

Kartik Athreya responds to recent critiques of the Federal Reserve and its efforts to combat inflation. Athreya is executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Price Changes and Monetary Non-Neutrality

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-41

The newer a product is, the more likely its price will change and the larger the price change will likely be.

Chen Yeh

Blog Post

How Pump Prices Play With Monetary Policy

Macro Minute

October 4, 2022

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Close-up on the hands of a woman picking eggs in a supermarket

What’s Driving Inflation?

Sept. 30, 2022

President Tom Barkin considers the forces behind today’s high inflation and offers his outlook for the economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Analyzing Fiscal Policy Matters More Than Ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-39

This theory may be obscure, even to economists, but it can have quite an impact on inflation.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Anticipated FOMC Policy, Inflation and Credibility

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-37

One can argue whether the FOMC's response to inflation has been strong enough, but financial markets and surveys suggest that the Fed retains credibility for low inflation in the long run.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

The Fed Is Shrinking Its Balance Sheet. What Does That Mean?

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

While the Fed has experience buying assets to respond to crises, questions remain around unwinding those actions

Tim Sablik

Article

Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflation, and the Fed

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Today's inflationary snarls reflect both supply shocks and policy stimulus.

John Mullin

Article

Following Through

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that monetary policy is a blunt instrument and using it to bring down inflation could entail some short-term pain. This risk, though, must be compared with outcomes that would confront the Fed and the economy were clear action not forthcoming.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Columbia University economist on inflation, capital controls, and finding research topics.

David A. Price

Article

The Reserve Bank Presidential Search

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Given the critical role that Reserve Bank presidents play in formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to ensure that the presidential selection process is transparent, fair, and inclusive.

Chris Murphy

Article

Yiming Ma presents her paper to attendees of the Intermediation and Bank Liquidity Conference, part of August's CORE Week collaboration

Intermediation and Bank Liquidity: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-34

How might a CBDC alter the banking system? How does credit easing affect bank runs? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.

John Mullin and Matthew Wells

Blog Post

The 2021 Rise in U.S. Inflation: A Cross-Country Perspective

Macro Minute

August 23, 2022

Inflation has hit most other advanced economies in addition to the United States. What can we learn from their experiences?

Thomas A. Lubik and Alexander L. Wolman

Article

an illustration of a figure pushing a cart up a line chart

How Persistent Is Inflation?

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-31

Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.

Conner Mulloy, John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Speech

Woman working with a laptop, pencil, paper and calculator in kitchen at home

Winning the War on Inflation

Aug. 3, 2022

President Tom Barkin outlines how he expects inflation to come down.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Inflation and Fed Policy

Speaking of the Economy

July 13, 2022

John O'Trakoun offers an update on where inflation stands, how it is affecting the economy, and what steps the Federal Reserve is taking to bring it down. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Richmond Fed and primary author of the Bank's Macro Minute blog.

Working Paper

Relative Price Shocks and Inflation (Revised March 2024)

Working Paper Series

June 2022, No. 22-07R

Decomposing the 2012-2019 inflation shortfall, and its surge starting in 2021, we find that sectoral shocks were major contributors to the inflation deviations from target.

Francisco Ruge-Murcia and Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Group of businesspeople raising their hands to ask questions during a conference

The Recession Question

June 21, 2022

As the Fed works to contain inflation, many ask whether we are headed into a recession. President Barkin shares his perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Photo of a multicolor financial graph on a screen.

A Historical Perspective on Digital Currencies

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-21

Perhaps history can be a guide on whether central banks should issue digital currencies.

Huberto M. Ennis, Zhu Wang and Russell Wong

Article

Unwinding Pandemic Monetary Policy

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

When COVID-19 hit, it put consumers and businesses in unprecedented difficulty. Given the magnitude of the unique shock hitting the economy, the Fed acted to ensure that broader financial conditions did not further hurt consumers and businesses.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Recent Research in Monetary Policy and Central Banking: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-19

Among the topics covered at the Marvin Goodfriend conference were Fed bond facilities' impact on corporate credit risk and how trade leads to a global Phillips curve.

John Mullin

Podcast

The Legacy of Marvin Goodfriend

Speaking of the Economy

May 18, 2022

Alex Wolman and Robert King reflect on the life and legacy of Marvin Goodfriend. Throughout his career, Goodfriend wrote a number of influential papers on monetary policy and played a key role in the development of the Richmond Fed's Research Department.

Speech

Man at a desk using a calculator and holding paper money in his hand

Why We Care About Inflation

May 10, 2022

Inflation hasn’t been a hot topic for decades. Now that it’s back, it’s clear consumers and businesses dislike it. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses why and how the Fed is working to contain it.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Federal Reserve Structure and Economic Ideas

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

Marvin Goodfriend's views on the proper role of a central bank and his defense of the federal structure of the Federal Reserve System.

Michael D. Bordo and Edward S. Prescott

Article

Rational Expectations and Volcker’s Disinflation

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

An examination of Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King's "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation" paper.

Thomas J. Sargent

Article

Interest Rate Policy

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This paper builds on the analysis of Marvin Goodfriend and examines how the Fed can better engage in a rules-based monetary policy going forward.

John B. Taylor

Article

The Implications of Optimal Prediction Formulae

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

Like many economists who came of age in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Marvin Goodfriend learned how models were affected by the assumption of rational expectations.

Mark W. Watson

Article

Taming Inflation Scares

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

Marvin Goodfriend drew a number of conceptual and policy implications from his analysis of inflation scares, which have become part of the central banks' approaches to monetary policy.

Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams

Article

Banking Policy and Monetary Policy

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This essay discusses the ideas and contributions in Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King's 1988 paper and relates it to some of Goodfriend's other research on banking and monetary policy.

Douglas W. Diamond

Article

Monetary Mystique and the Fed’s Path Toward Increased Transparency

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This essay details Marvin Goodfriend's work around central bank secrecy and the evolution of transparency over the years.

Lars E.O. Svensson

Article

From the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

This essay reviews the Volcker and Greenspan policy accomplishments at the Fed, as well as Marvin Goodfriend's contributions during this timespan.

Robert L. Hetzel

Article

The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

In 1997, Marvin Goodfriend published two papers that advocated a new approach to monetary policy analysis.

Michael Woodford

Article

Marvin Goodfriend and the Zero Lower Bound

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

An examination of Marvin Goodfriend's research on the relationship between the zero lower bound and interest rate policy.

Ben S. Bernanke

Article

Credibility and Explicit Inflation Targeting

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

This essay reviews Marvin Goodfriend's path to making the case that the U.S. should adopt an explicit inflation targeting system.

Robert G. King and Yang K. Lu

Article

The 2007 Monetary Policy Consensus in Retrospect

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

The development of a symbiotic relationship between academic research and central bank policymaking led to a consensus on a new framework for monetary policymaking, which remains with us today.

Mark Gertler

Article

Federal Reserve Independence: Is it Time for a New Treasury-Fed Accord?*

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This essay considers whether the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord should be amended in order to address new challenges to Fed independence.

Charles Plosser

Article

Central Bank Lending and Incentives

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

An analysis of the roles of central bank lending and central bank credit policy, what can go wrong with central bank lending, and how to fix these problems.

Kartik B. Athreya and Stephen D. Williamson

Article

Paying Interest on Bank Reserves

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

This essay recounts the history of interest on reserves at the Fed, showcasing the influence of Marvin Goodfriend's ideas and how those ideas were adapted as policymakers learned from the implementation of policy.

Huberto M. Ennis and John A. Weinberg

Article

Reconsidering the Case for Price Stability

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This essay explains why central banks have targeted a 2 percent target inflation rate instead of literal price stability.

Vitor Gaspar and Frank Smets

Article

Interest Rate Smoothing

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

The concept of interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks is now standard, but it was not in the early 1980s when Marvin Goodfriend made the concept into a distinct phenomenon to be explained.

Michael Dotsey, Andreas Hornstein and Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Board of Governors headquarters, Washington, D.C.

Projecting the Evolution of the Fed's Balance Sheet

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-15

Based on different sets of reasonable assumptions, we analyze several different scenarios for the future of this critical policy-relevant lever.

Huberto M. Ennis

Speech

Ocean wave at sunrise in a tropical sea with reflections of the sky

Beyond Today’s Inflation Storm

April 12, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores the conditions we may face once we navigate through the current inflation storm.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A man with a hammer, broken piggy bank and counted savings

Containing Inflation

March 18, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how the Federal Reserve is working to contain inflation and reflects on the post-pandemic era economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Essay

A business person reviewing charts in a notebook and tablet

The Economy: What We’ve Learned

Jan. 13, 2022

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Borrower of Last Resort: What Explains the Rise of ON RRP Facility Usage?

Economic Brief

December 2021, No. 21-43

The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo facility has seen significant activity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russell Wong

Article

Challenges of Forward Guidance

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

For the Fed, good communication is an important tool

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Forecasting Inflation

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

For policymakers and market participants, inflation can be challenging to predict.

Tim Sablik

Speech

Talking About Outcomes

Oct. 14, 2021

President Tom Barkin talks about the merits of outcome-based, rather than date-based, forward guidance.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Vision of an upward arrow with Ben Franklin's $100 image in background

How Broad-Based Is the Recent High Inflation?

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-30

The annualized PCE inflation rate over the period March through July is 6.5 percent, the highest five-month rate since November 1981.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

coins and a chart of trendlines in front of a wall calendar

Is Your Inflation Different?

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

Not everyone experiences the same inflation. What does that mean for monetary policy?

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach (Revised June 2023)

Working Paper Series

July 2021, No. 21-12R

Sometimes money gets used when it should not, and we investigate why using surveys plus measures.

Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright

Article

What Does the FOMC's Shift in Fed Funds Rate Target Language Mean?

Economic Brief

July 2021, No. 21-22

The new language — which has been in each FOMC statement since September — represents a significant shift in the committee's thinking.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

The Fed’s New Framework

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

With a revised strategy, the Fed responds to challenges facing central banks today

Tim Sablik

Article

MMT and Government Finance: You Can't Always Get What You Want

Economic Brief

April 2021, No. 21-12

The "modern monetary theory" tenet that governments can continuously print money to fund deficits ignores the fact that governments ultimately must satisfy creditors.

Michael U. Krause, Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Speech

Anticipating COVID Scarring

March 21, 2021

President Tom Barkin spoke about the potential for COVID-19 to leave long-lasting scars on the economy—and how policy can help.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Understanding the Links Between Policy and Stability

Feb. 19, 2021

Richmond Fed Research Director Kartik Athreya reflected on how — or if — monetary policy choices influence financial stability.

Kartik Athreya
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Article

Seek and Ye Shall Not Find: The Absence of Hysteresis in U.S. Macroeconomic Data

Economic Brief

February 2021, No. 21-04

Conducting a statistical analysis of U.S. economic data, economists from the Richmond Fed and the University of Bern find no evidence of hysteresis, the idea that seemingly temporary economic shocks can have permanent effects.

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

The Fed's Discount Window in "Normal" Times (Revised June 2023)

Working Paper Series

January 2021, No. 21-01R

We study new transaction-level data of discount window borrowing in the U.S. from 2010–17, merged with quarterly data on bank financial conditions (balance sheet and revenue).

Huberto M. Ennis and Elizabeth Klee

Article

between supply and demand there is a dollar sign

How Do Small Business Finance and Monetary Policy Interact?

Economic Brief

October 2020, No. 20-11

Economists at the Richmond Fed, the University of Virginia, UC Irvine, and Purdue analyze how monetary policy affects lending relationships for small businesses and vice versa.

Hailey Phelps and Russell Wong

Working Paper

Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

September 2020, No. 20-13

We construct and calibrate a monetary model of corporate finance with endogenous formation of lending relationships. The equilibrium features money demands by firms that depend on their access to credit and a pecking order of financing means.

Zachary Bethune, Guillaume Rocheteau, Russell Wong and Cathy Zhang

Speech

The Economy and the Question of Inflation

Sept. 24, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin spoke about the outlook for inflation at a webinar hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Fed's Emergency Lending Evolves

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

The Fed is using emergency lending powers it invoked during the Great Recession to respond to COVID-19 — but it cast a wider net this time.

Tim Sablik

Article

masked woman adding a sold sign to a for sale house sign

Federal Reserve MBS Purchases in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic Brief

July 2020, No. 20-08

The Federal Reserve's purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities — launched in response to financial disruptions caused by COVID-19 — appear to have restored smooth market function supporting the continued flow of credit to mortgage borrowers.

Borys Grochulski

Article

The Repo Market is Changing (and What Is a Repo, Anyway?)

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

The market for repurchase agreements has repeatedly adapted to changing circumstances.

John Mullin

Article

Making Up Is Hard to Do

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

The process of guiding inflation expectations higher is not likely to be easy. Indeed, the historical record suggests that making up for periods of below-target inflation will be challenging.

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Article

The Coronavirus and the Economy

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

This gallery offers a record of some of the unprecedented economic changes that Americans experienced at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jacob Crouse, David A. Price, Rachel Rodgers, Jessie Romero and Luna Shen

Article

the word DEBT piled up on four stacks of coins

Public and Private Debt after the Pandemic and Policy Normalization

Economic Brief

May 2020, No. 20-06

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt has increased dramatically and private debt seems likely to increase as well.

Thomas A. Lubik and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Presidential Politics and Monetary Policy: Lessons from the 1896 Election

Economic Brief

February 2020, No. 20-02

The U.S. presidential election of 1896 provides an excellent natural experiment to measure the impact of exchange-rate uncertainty on bank balance sheets and the broader economy.

Scott Fulford, Karl Rhodes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Repo Rate Spikes: A Puzzle for Policymakers

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

On Sept. 17, 2019, the repo rate spiked as high as 9 percent at one point during the trading day and ended up averaging 5.25 percent over the entire day. The size of the spike was extremely unusual.

Kartik B. Athreya

Speech

The New Environment for Monetary Policy

Nov. 13, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke November 13, 2019 at the Greensboro Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Forecast Luncheon in Greensboro, N.C.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The New Environment for Monetary Policy

Nov. 5, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke November 5, 2019 at the Greater Baltimore Committee Economic Outlook conference in Baltimore, Md.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Composing the Fed's Balance Sheet

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2019

Over the last few years, the FOMC has embarked on a process of monetary policy "normalization," which includes raising interest rates above zero and reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet.

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Article

Business Short-Termism and Monetary Policy

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2019

Policymakers and commentators argue that the pursuit of attractive quarterly results often takes precedence over building long-term value. Monetary policymakers need to understand this part of the economic environment.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Speech

Risk Management in Monetary Policy

Sept. 26, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke September 26, 2019 to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Monetary Policy across Space and Time

Economic Brief

August 2019, No. 19-08

Laura Liu, Christian Matthes, Katerina Petrova and Jessie Romero

Article

Money Supply

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2019

Knowing about the components of the nation's money supply and its evolving role in the economy is important for monetary policy.

Mike Finnegan

Speech

Confidence, Expectations and Implications for Monetary Policy

July 11, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke July 11, 2019, at the Global Interdependence Center’s Rocky Mountain Economic Summit.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

big fish eats medium fish who eats small fish who takes bait of a coin

Are Markets Becoming Less Competitive?

Economic Brief

June 2019, No. 19-06

National markets in many U.S. industries seem to be increasingly dominated by large companies. Some policymakers have argued that this growing market concentration is a sign of weakening competition, but concentration by itself does not necessarily translate into market power.

Tim Sablik and Nicholas Trachter

Article

Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles

Economic Brief

April 2019, No. 19-04

This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component (cycles up to thirty-two years), and a long-term component (the trend).

Renee Haltom, Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Fabio Verona

Article

Pile of money spread out showing $100 bill

Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship between Money and Prices

Economic Brief

February 2019, No. 19-02

Huberto M. Ennis and Tim Sablik

Article

Computer Models at the Fed

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2018

Modeling the U.S. economy on computers has come a long way since the 1950s. It's still a work in progress

David A. Price

Article

How Likely Is a Return to the Zero Lower Bound?

Economic Brief

September 2018, No. 18-09

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and David A. Price

Working Paper

Monetary Policy across Space and Time

Working Paper Series

August 2018, No. 18-14

Laura Liu, Christian Matthes and Katerina Petrova

Speech

Unlocking Our Potential

Aug. 8, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to community and business leaders in Roanoke, Virginia, about strategies to boost economic growth.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A Conversation With Tom Barkin

May 7, 2018

President Tom Barkin spoke at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. on May 7, 2018.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Fed's Foray Into Forex

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2017

Although very uncommon now, the Fed used to intervene regularly in foreign exchange markets

Tim Sablik

Article

1965: The Year the Fed and LBJ Clashed

Econ Focus

Third/Fourth Quarter 2016

The storied showdown between Fed Chairman Bill Martin and President Lyndon Johnson wasn't just about personalities. It was a fundamental dispute over the Fed's policymaking role

Helen Fessenden

Article

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?

Economic Brief

March 2017, No. 17-03

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Article

The Role of Central Bank Lending in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

December 2016, No. 16-12

Huberto M. Ennis and John A. Weinberg

Article

The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Economic Brief

November 2016, No. 16-11

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Article

How Did Short-Term Market Rates React to Liftoff?

Economic Brief

September 2016, No. 16-09

Renee Haltom and Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Do Net Interest Margins and Interest Rates Move Together?

Economic Brief

May 2016, No. 16-05

As a way to understand the origins of this expectation, in this Economic Brief we look at the relationship between the federal funds rate and the average net interest margin for U.S. banks since the mid-1980s. We find that the relationship is not as clear-cut as one might suspect.

Huberto M. Ennis, Helen Fessenden and John R. Walter

Article

Real Interest Rate

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2015

Real interest rates — nominal rates adjusted for inflation — are what matter for saving, borrowing, and investing.

Helen Fessenden

Publication

Inflation Targeting: Could Bad Luck Explain Persistent One-Sided Misses?

Economic Brief

September 2015, No. 15-09

Andreas Hornstein, Joe Johnson and Karl Rhodes

Article

What's It Like on the FOMC?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

FOMC meetings are set up to bring a wide range of perspectives to bear

Jeffrey M. Lacker

Publication

Discount Window Lending: Policy Trade-offs and the 1985 BoNY Computer Failure

Economic Brief

May 2015, No. 15-05

Huberto M. Ennis and David A. Price

Working Paper

Should Greece Remain in the Eurozone? (Revised July 2015)

Working Paper Series

May 2015, No. 15-04R

Robert L. Hetzel

Speech

Economic Outlook, April 2015

April 10, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Nominal GDP: Target or Benchmark?

Economic Brief

April 2015, No. 15-04

Robert L. Hetzel

Speech

Economic Outlook, March 2015

March 31, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Birds of a Feather

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Does the hawk-dove distinction still matter in the modern Fed?

Tim Sablik

Article

Richmond's Hawkish Tradition

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

The Richmond Fed has a long tradition of concern for price stability

Tim Sablik

Article

Disinflation

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Disinflation is when inflation is falling. The Fed sometimes deliberately brings about disinflation, but there is a risk of it becoming outright deflation.

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Publication

How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Economic Brief

February 2015, No. 15-02

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Article

Will the Graying of America Change Monetary Policy?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Economists ponder whether demographic change will reduce the potency of the Fed's interest rate moves

David A. Price

Article

Nicholas Bloom

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Stanford University economist on the effects of economic uncertainty, the role of management practices in economic performance, and fostering good management

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Publication

Putting the Beveridge Curve Back to Work

Economic Brief

September 2014, No. 14-09

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Working Paper

A Simple General Equilibrium Model of Large Excess Reserves

Working Paper Series

July 2014, No. 14-14

Huberto M. Ennis

Speech

Economic Outlook, July 2014

July 8, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Should the Fed Do Emergency Lending?

Economic Brief

July 2014, No. 14-07

Renee Haltom and Jeffrey M. Lacker

Speech

The Fed as Lender of Last Resort: Comments on "Rules for a Lender of Last Resort" by Michael Bordo

May 30, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke on May 30, 2014 during the Hoover Institution’s Central Banking Conference at Stanford University.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

Working Paper Series

April 2014, No. 14-10

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, Christian Matthes and Mu-Chun Wang

Working Paper

Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-08

This paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers.

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-07

Timothy Cogley, Christian Matthes and Argia M. Sbordone

Working Paper

Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation

Working Paper Series

February 2014, No. 14-02

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2014

Jan. 17, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, November 2013

Nov. 21, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook in remarks to business and community leaders in Asheboro, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

State Dependent Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-17

Nicholas Trachter, Francesco Lippi and Stefania Ragni

Speech

Monetary Policy in the United States: The Risks Associated With Unconventional Policies

Sept. 26, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed U.S. monetary policy at the Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar on Sept. 26 in Stockholm.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A Look Back at the History of the Federal Reserve

Aug. 29, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed Federal Reserve history at Christopher Newport University on Aug. 29 in Newport News, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Can Monetarists Explain Recession in the Eurozone? (Revised August 2015)

Working Paper Series

July 2013, No. 13-07R

Robert L. Hetzel

Publication

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

May 2013, No. 13-05

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Economic Outlook, December 2012

Dec. 17, 2012

Lacker speaks at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce's Annual Economic Outlook Conference.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

A Citizen's Guide to Unconventional Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

December 2012, No. 12-12

Renee Haltom and Alexander L. Wolman

Working Paper

Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models (Revised September 2015)

Working Paper Series

December 2012, No. 12-09R

Carlos Carvalho and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

Perspectives on Monetary and Credit Policy

Nov. 20, 2012

Lacker Speaks at Shadow Open Market Committee Symposium in New York

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook

Nov. 15, 2012

Speech before the West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference Nov. 15, 2012

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, October 2012

Oct. 15, 2012

Lacker Addresses Business and Government Leaders in Roanoke, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Challenges to Economic Growth

Oct. 12, 2012

Speech before the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy Oct. 12, 2012

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Maximum Employment and Monetary Policy

Sept. 18, 2012

Speech before Money Marketeers Sept. 18, 2012

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Unsustainable Fiscal Policy: Implications for Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

July 2012, No. 12-07

This Economic Brief argues that the current fiscal position is not sustainable. Though financial markets seem unconcerned, for the time being, about U.S. fiscal health, as evidenced by low rates on Treasury securities, lawmakers should not be complacent.

Renee Haltom and John A. Weinberg

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2012

Jan. 13, 2012

Lacker Addresses Richmond Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

The Federal Reserve's "Dual Mandate": The Evolution of an Idea

Economic Brief

December 2011, No. 11-12

Aaron Steelman
Publications Director

Speech

Understanding the Interventionist Impulse of the Modern Central Bank

Nov. 16, 2011

Lacker on Understanding the Interventionist Impulse of the Modern Central Bank,CATO Institute Monetary Conference

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Potential Causes and Implications of the Rise in Long-Term Unemployment

Economic Brief

September 2011, No. 11-09

Andreas Hornstein, Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

Publication

Is Stimulative Fiscal Policy More Effective at the Zero Lower Bound?

Economic Brief

August 2011, No. 11-08

Several recent research efforts have found that stimulative fiscal policy — government spending or tax cuts — can have unusual effects when nominal interest rates are as low as they are today. In particular, some studies have found that the government spending "multiplier" can be much larger at the zero lower bound.

Renee Haltom and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Speech

What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

July 28, 2011

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Monetary Policy with Unknown Natural Rates

Economic Brief

July 2011, No. 11-07

Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

Discretionary Monetary Policy in the Calvo Model (Revised March 2017)

Working Paper Series

June 2011, No. 11-03R

Willem Van Zandweghe and Alexander L. Wolman

Publication

How Might the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases Lower Long-Term Interest Rates?

Economic Brief

January 2011, No. 11-01

Renee Haltom and Juan Carlos Hatchondo

Publication

Is There Stigma Associated with Discount Window Borrowing?

Economic Brief

May 2010, No. 10-05

Renee Haltom and Huberto M. Ennis

Publication

Excess Reserves and the New Challenges for Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

March 2010, No. 10-03

Huberto M. Ennis and Alexander L. Wolman

Publication

Is the Output Gap a Faulty Gauge for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

January 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Stephen Slivinski

Publication

The Effect of Interest on Reserves on Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

December 2009, No. 09-12

John R. Walter and Renee Haltom

Publication

Rolling Back the Financial Safety Net

Economic Brief

November 2009, No. 09-11

Robert L. Hetzel and Stephen Slivinski

Working Paper

On the Implementation of Markov-Perfect Monetary Policy (Revised August 2011)

Working Paper Series

April 2009, No. 09-6R

Michael Dotsey and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices

Working Paper Series

March 2009, No. 09-2

Alexander L. Wolman

Publication

Inflation Expectations: Their Sources and Effects

Economic Brief

October 2008, No. 08-01

Yash P. Mehra and Devin Reilly

Publication

Annual Report - 2008

Annual Report

2008

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "The Financial Crisis: Toward an Explanation and Policy Response"

Speech

Comments on "Understanding the Evolving Inflation Process"

March 9, 2007

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke March 9, 2007 at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum 2007 in Washington, D.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

How Should Regulators Respond to Financial Innovation?

Dec. 1, 2006

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke December 1, 2006 at The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum in Philadelphia, Pa.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Monetary Policy Tactics and Strategy

Oct. 30, 2006

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke October 30, 2006 at the Baltimore Convention Center in Baltimore, Md.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Transition and Continuity at the Federal Reserve

Feb. 14, 2006

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke February 14, 2006 at the West Virginia University's Acordia/Royal & SunAlliance Distinguished Lecture Series in Morgantown, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Annual Report - 2006

Annual Report

2006

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve"

Speech

Interest Rate Policy After Greenspan

Oct. 20, 2005

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke October 20, 2005 at the Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Region Focus - Spring 2005

Region Focus

Spring 2005

Cover Story: Homeward Bound
Housing markets work just fine for most people. But certain markets in the Fifth District aren't producing homes and apartments that working families can afford.

Speech

Comments on the Economy and Monetary Policy

June 16, 2004

As usual I’ll begin with a recap of recent developments in the economy to put the outlook in perspective. Then I’ll comment on the outlook — as others see it and I see it — and finally I’ll conclude with a few remarks about monetary policy.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Working Paper

Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity, and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria

Working Paper Series

June 2004, No. 04-5

Robert G. King and Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Competition in Banking: Achieving the Right Balance

May 6, 2004

It is a pleasure to be with you this morning. The theme of this session is “How Banks Compete.” I want to develop a variation on this theme and consider how the intensity of competition in banking has increased over the years, and some of the challenges this change presents.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Working Paper

Price Stability and Japanese Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

February 2004, No. 04-1

Robert L. Hetzel

Speech

The Economic Outlook for 2004

Jan. 16, 2004

It's a pleasure to be back with you once again. I don't know exactly how many years you've honored me by inviting me back, but it's an appreciable number, and I always enjoy being with you. I guess I should say most of the time.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Working Paper

Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Working Paper Series

December 2003, No. 03-15

Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Comments on Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

Jan. 3, 2003

It's a pleasure to be here today and to have this opportunity to comment on conducting monetary policy in a low inflation environment.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Working Paper

Should Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy Look at Money?

Working Paper Series

November 2002, No. 02-4

Michael Dotsey and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

The Taylor Principle, Interest Rate Smoothing and Fed Policy in the 1970s and 1980s

Working Paper Series

August 2002, No. 02-3

Yash P. Mehra

Speech

Transparency in the Practice of Monetary Policy

Oct. 12, 2001

This has been a very useful conference in my view, and I am honored by this opportunity to be a part of it.1 As some of you may know, I was the second choice for this slot, but that doesn't bother me at all because the first choice was Don Brash, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a pathbreaker in bringing both transparency and accountability to central banking in practice.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Working Paper

The Pitfalls of Monetary Discretion

Working Paper Series

October 2001, No. 01-8

Aubhik Khan, Robert G. King and Alexander L. Wolman

Working Paper

The Taylor Principle, Interest Rate Smoothing and Fed Policy in the 1970s and 1980s

Working Paper Series

August 2001, No. 01-5

Yash P. Mehra

Working Paper

The Case for Price Stability

Working Paper Series

April 2001, No. 01-2

Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King

Working Paper

Financial Stability, Deflation, and Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

January 2001, No. 01-1

The paper explores the relationship between financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy. A discussion of narrow liquidity, broad liquidity, market liquidity, and financial distress provides the foundation for the analysis.

Marvin Goodfriend

Publication

Annual Report - 2000

Annual Report

2000

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "What Assets Should the Federal Reserve Buy?"

Publication

Annual Report - 1999

Annual Report

1999

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "The Role of a Regional Bank in a System of Central Banks"

Speech

U.S. Monetary Policy: Looking Back to Find the Future

Oct. 17, 1996

Needless to say, it's a great pleasure for both Margaret and me to have this opportunity to return to IU, where we spent four very happy years between mid-1966 and mid-1970.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Publication

Annual Report - 1996

Annual Report

1996

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Monetary Policy Comes of Age: A 20th Century Odyssey"

Speech

Reflections on Monetary Policy

March 16, 1995

Mr. Broaddus wishes to thank his long-time colleague, Timothy Cook, for substantial assistance in preparing the address.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Publication

Annual Report - 1995

Annual Report

1995

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Foreign Exchange Operations and the Federal Reserve"

Speech

Central Banking: Then and Now

April 2, 1993

Thank you very much for that kind introduction. It is very nice indeed to be here in the Shenandoah Valley.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President