President Tom Barkin discusses what he is hearing on the ground from Fifth District contacts, and how it compares to recent data.

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

The updates result in a less volatile r* series that more closely reflects our prior belief as to where r* likely is.

Sonya Waddell and Chen Yeh provide an update on credit market conditions, based on recent results of the CFO Survey and other surveys of borrowers and lenders. They also discuss the macroeconomic forces that shape the supply and demand sides of the market, including the current round of monetary policy tightening. Waddell is a vice president and economist and Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

What is the typical lag between market interest rate increases and increases in CD and MMMF balances? Is the recent increase unusually large, or is more in store?

Paul Ho talks about how economists model the interactions between monetary policy and the economy and the challenges of determining the economic effects of policy with precision. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

President Tom Barkin discusses what’s driving the resilient U.S. economy and where it may be headed next.

How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.

President Tom Barkin explores a plausible story for how inflation returns to target.

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson triggered the demise of America's second central bank with a stroke of his veto pen.

The Richmond Fed hosted CORE Week and also launched the Goodfriend Memorial Lecture in early May.

Even though economists have made huge leaps in understanding how monetary policy impacts the economy, there remains substantial disagreement and imprecision in the estimates.

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of unemployment insurance in general equilibrium using a life-cycle model.

Do relative price changes account for the behavior of inflation in the pandemic and post-pandemic eras?

President Tom Barkin discusses recent data and events and explores potential implications for monetary policy.

In part two of this two-part conversation, Robert Hetzel focuses on the Fed's policies during the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation and after the Great Recession, as well as the role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond during these periods.

In part one of this two-part conversation, Robert Hetzel discusses the Fed's policy shifts in the two decades following the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond during that period.

Market commentors noticed a pattern during Alan Greenspan's tenure as Fed chair from 1987 to 2006. The Fed, it appeared to some, had developed a policy of bailing out stock investors by injecting liquidity into the economy amid large stock market declines. This perceived tendency came to be called the "Greenspan put."

President Tom Barkin discusses how he sees the economy, and the implications for inflation and for policy.

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Just by allowing the securities in its portfolio to mature, the Fed could reach a normalized size of its balance sheet in two to three years.

Tom Barkin discusses the state of inflation and the monetary policy response of the Federal Reserve, as well as his outlook on the national economy. Barkin is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

President Tom Barkin reflects on monetary policy and the economy in 2022 and shares his thoughts on what’s ahead.

Huberto Ennis explores how the Federal Reserve used its asset purchases to deal with market disruptions and the unprecedented economic issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. He also discusses why and how the Fed is unwinding these purchases. Ennis is group vice president for macro and financial economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The past few years have seen unprecedented real economy shocks, which are particularly hard to deal with for any central bank, and so drove a lot of the inflation in the wake of the pandemic's arrival.

We theoretically and empirically investigate how climate risks affect collateralized debt markets. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous beliefs in understanding the effects of climate change on the financial system.

For the first time in more than a generation, we are grappling with high, broad-based, and persistent inflation. Is there an end in sight?

While the Fed has never been a stranger to criticism, the criticism has been notable and specific during the past year. The subject: inflation.

Talking about the future has become a valuable tool of monetary policy, but recent events have prompted a reevaluation.

John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel Sarte discuss the persistence of inflation over the years and what may set apart the current period of elevated prices compared to historical patterns. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist and Sarte is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Techniques at the frontiers of econometrics were addressed by economists during a recent research conference.

Kartik Athreya responds to recent critiques of the Federal Reserve and its efforts to combat inflation. Athreya is executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The newer a product is, the more likely its price will change and the larger the price change will likely be.

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

President Tom Barkin considers the forces behind today’s high inflation and offers his outlook for the economy.

Learn about key trends and considerations related to balance sheet management and interest rate risk practices in a highly dynamic economic environment.

This theory may be obscure, even to economists, but it can have quite an impact on inflation.

One can argue whether the FOMC's response to inflation has been strong enough, but financial markets and surveys suggest that the Fed retains credibility for low inflation in the long run.

While the Fed has experience buying assets to respond to crises, questions remain around unwinding those actions

Today's inflationary snarls reflect both supply shocks and policy stimulus.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that monetary policy is a blunt instrument and using it to bring down inflation could entail some short-term pain. This risk, though, must be compared with outcomes that would confront the Fed and the economy were clear action not forthcoming.

Given the critical role that Reserve Bank presidents play in formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to ensure that the presidential selection process is transparent, fair, and inclusive.

Columbia University economist on inflation, capital controls, and finding research topics.

How might a CBDC alter the banking system? How does credit easing affect bank runs? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.

Inflation has hit most other advanced economies in addition to the United States. What can we learn from their experiences?

Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.

President Tom Barkin outlines how he expects inflation to come down.

John O'Trakoun offers an update on where inflation stands, how it is affecting the economy, and what steps the Federal Reserve is taking to bring it down. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Richmond Fed and primary author of the Bank's Macro Minute blog.

We use an estimated multi-sector New Keynesian model to decompose the behavior of U.S. inflation into contributions from sectoral (or "relative price") shocks, monetary policy shocks, and aggregate real shocks.

As the Fed works to contain inflation, many ask whether we are headed into a recession. President Barkin shares his perspective.

Perhaps history can be a guide on whether central banks should issue digital currencies.

When COVID-19 hit, it put consumers and businesses in unprecedented difficulty. Given the magnitude of the unique shock hitting the economy, the Fed acted to ensure that broader financial conditions did not further hurt consumers and businesses.

Among the topics covered at the Marvin Goodfriend conference were Fed bond facilities' impact on corporate credit risk and how trade leads to a global Phillips curve.

Alex Wolman and Robert King reflect on the life and legacy of Marvin Goodfriend. Throughout his career, Goodfriend wrote a number of influential papers on monetary policy and played a key role in the development of the Richmond Fed's Research Department.

Inflation hasn’t been a hot topic for decades. Now that it’s back, it’s clear consumers and businesses dislike it. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses why and how the Fed is working to contain it.

Marvin Goodfriend's views on the proper role of a central bank and his defense of the federal structure of the Federal Reserve System.

Like many economists who came of age in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Marvin Goodfriend learned how models were affected by the assumption of rational expectations.

This essay considers whether the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord should be amended in order to address new challenges to Fed independence.

This essay reviews the Volcker and Greenspan policy accomplishments at the Fed, as well as Marvin Goodfriend's contributions during this timespan.

This paper builds on the analysis of Marvin Goodfriend and examines how the Fed can better engage in a rules-based monetary policy going forward.

This essay recounts the history of interest on reserves at the Fed, showcasing the influence of Marvin Goodfriend's ideas and how those ideas were adapted as policymakers learned from the implementation of policy.

This essay discusses the ideas and contributions in Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King's 1988 paper and relates it to some of Goodfriend's other research on banking and monetary policy.

An analysis of the roles of central bank lending and central bank credit policy, what can go wrong with central bank lending, and how to fix these problems.

This essay details Marvin Goodfriend's work around central bank secrecy and the evolution of transparency over the years.

Marvin Goodfriend drew a number of conceptual and policy implications from his analysis of inflation scares, which have become part of the central banks' approaches to monetary policy.

In 1997, Marvin Goodfriend published two papers that advocated a new approach to monetary policy analysis.

The concept of interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks is now standard, but it was not in the early 1980s when Marvin Goodfriend made the concept into a distinct phenomenon to be explained.

An examination of Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King's "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation" paper.

This essay reviews Marvin Goodfriend's path to making the case that the U.S. should adopt an explicit inflation targeting system.

An examination of Marvin Goodfriend's research on the relationship between the zero lower bound and interest rate policy.

The development of a symbiotic relationship between academic research and central bank policymaking led to a consensus on a new framework for monetary policymaking, which remains with us today.

This essay explains why central banks have targeted a 2 percent target inflation rate instead of literal price stability.

Based on different sets of reasonable assumptions, we analyze several different scenarios for the future of this critical policy-relevant lever.

President Tom Barkin explores the conditions we may face once we navigate through the current inflation storm.

President Tom Barkin discusses how the Federal Reserve is working to contain inflation and reflects on the post-pandemic era economy.

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo facility has seen significant activity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For policymakers and market participants, inflation can be challenging to predict.

For the Fed, good communication is an important tool

President Tom Barkin talks about the merits of outcome-based, rather than date-based, forward guidance.

The annualized PCE inflation rate over the period March through July is 6.5 percent, the highest five-month rate since November 1981.

Not everyone experiences the same inflation. What does that mean for monetary policy?

Sometimes money gets used when it should not, and we investigate why using surveys plus measures.

The new language — which has been in each FOMC statement since September — represents a significant shift in the committee's thinking.

With a revised strategy, the Fed responds to challenges facing central banks today

The "modern monetary theory" tenet that governments can continuously print money to fund deficits ignores the fact that governments ultimately must satisfy creditors.

President Tom Barkin spoke about the potential for COVID-19 to leave long-lasting scars on the economy—and how policy can help.

Conducting a statistical analysis of U.S. economic data, economists from the Richmond Fed and the University of Bern find no evidence of hysteresis, the idea that seemingly temporary economic shocks can have permanent effects.

We study new transaction-level data of discount window borrowing in the U.S. from 2010–17, merged with quarterly data on bank financial conditions (balance sheet and revenue).

Economists at the Richmond Fed, the University of Virginia, UC Irvine, and Purdue analyze how monetary policy affects lending relationships for small businesses and vice versa.

We construct and calibrate a monetary model of corporate finance with endogenous formation of lending relationships. The equilibrium features money demands by firms that depend on their access to credit and a pecking order of financing means.

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin spoke about the outlook for inflation at a webinar hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University.

The Fed is using emergency lending powers it invoked during the Great Recession to respond to COVID-19 — but it cast a wider net this time.

The Federal Reserve's purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities — launched in response to financial disruptions caused by COVID-19 — appear to have restored smooth market function supporting the continued flow of credit to mortgage borrowers.

The market for repurchase agreements has repeatedly adapted to changing circumstances.

This gallery offers a record of some of the unprecedented economic changes that Americans experienced at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt has increased dramatically and private debt seems likely to increase as well.

The U.S. presidential election of 1896 provides an excellent natural experiment to measure the impact of exchange-rate uncertainty on bank balance sheets and the broader economy.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke November 13, 2019 at the Greensboro Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Forecast Luncheon in Greensboro, N.C.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke November 5, 2019 at the Greater Baltimore Committee Economic Outlook conference in Baltimore, Md.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke September 26, 2019 to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Knowing about the components of the nation's money supply and its evolving role in the economy is important for monetary policy.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke July 11, 2019, at the Global Interdependence Center’s Rocky Mountain Economic Summit.

National markets in many U.S. industries seem to be increasingly dominated by large companies. Some policymakers have argued that this growing market concentration is a sign of weakening competition, but concentration by itself does not necessarily translate into market power.

This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component (cycles up to thirty-two years), and a long-term component (the trend).

Modeling the U.S. economy on computers has come a long way since the 1950s. It's still a work in progress

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to community and business leaders in Roanoke, Virginia, about strategies to boost economic growth.

President Tom Barkin spoke at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. on May 7, 2018.

Although very uncommon now, the Fed used to intervene regularly in foreign exchange markets

The storied showdown between Fed Chairman Bill Martin and President Lyndon Johnson wasn't just about personalities. It was a fundamental dispute over the Fed's policymaking role

As a way to understand the origins of this expectation, in this Economic Brief we look at the relationship between the federal funds rate and the average net interest margin for U.S. banks since the mid-1980s. We find that the relationship is not as clear-cut as one might suspect.

Real interest rates — nominal rates adjusted for inflation — are what matter for saving, borrowing, and investing.

FOMC meetings are set up to bring a wide range of perspectives to bear

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Does the hawk-dove distinction still matter in the modern Fed?

The Richmond Fed has a long tradition of concern for price stability

Disinflation is when inflation is falling. The Fed sometimes deliberately brings about disinflation, but there is a risk of it becoming outright deflation.

Economists ponder whether demographic change will reduce the potency of the Fed's interest rate moves

Stanford University economist on the effects of economic uncertainty, the role of management practices in economic performance, and fostering good management

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke on May 30, 2014 during the Hoover Institution’s Central Banking Conference at Stanford University.

This paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook in remarks to business and community leaders in Asheboro, N.C.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed U.S. monetary policy at the Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar on Sept. 26 in Stockholm.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed Federal Reserve history at Christopher Newport University on Aug. 29 in Newport News, Va.

Lacker speaks at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce's Annual Economic Outlook Conference.

Lacker Speaks at Shadow Open Market Committee Symposium in New York

Speech before the West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference Nov. 15, 2012

Lacker Addresses Business and Government Leaders in Roanoke, Va.

Speech before the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy Oct. 12, 2012

Speech before Money Marketeers Sept. 18, 2012

This Economic Brief argues that the current fiscal position is not sustainable. Though financial markets seem unconcerned, for the time being, about U.S. fiscal health, as evidenced by low rates on Treasury securities, lawmakers should not be complacent.

Lacker Addresses Richmond Risk Management Association.

Lacker on Understanding the Interventionist Impulse of the Modern Central Bank,CATO Institute Monetary Conference

Several recent research efforts have found that stimulative fiscal policy — government spending or tax cuts — can have unusual effects when nominal interest rates are as low as they are today. In particular, some studies have found that the government spending "multiplier" can be much larger at the zero lower bound.

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "The Financial Crisis: Toward an Explanation and Policy Response"

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke March 9, 2007 at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum 2007 in Washington, D.C. 

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke December 1, 2006 at The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum in Philadelphia, Pa.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke October 30, 2006 at the Baltimore Convention Center in Baltimore, Md.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke February 14, 2006 at the West Virginia University's Acordia/Royal & SunAlliance Distinguished Lecture Series in Morgantown, Va.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve"

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke October 20, 2005 at the Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C.

Cover Story: Homeward Bound
Housing markets work just fine for most people. But certain markets in the Fifth District aren't producing homes and apartments that working families can afford.

As usual I’ll begin with a recap of recent developments in the economy to put the outlook in perspective. Then I’ll comment on the outlook — as others see it and I see it — and finally I’ll conclude with a few remarks about monetary policy.

It is a pleasure to be with you this morning. The theme of this session is “How Banks Compete.” I want to develop a variation on this theme and consider how the intensity of competition in banking has increased over the years, and some of the challenges this change presents.

It's a pleasure to be back with you once again. I don't know exactly how many years you've honored me by inviting me back, but it's an appreciable number, and I always enjoy being with you. I guess I should say most of the time.

It's a pleasure to be here today and to have this opportunity to comment on conducting monetary policy in a low inflation environment.

This has been a very useful conference in my view, and I am honored by this opportunity to be a part of it.1 As some of you may know, I was the second choice for this slot, but that doesn't bother me at all because the first choice was Don Brash, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a pathbreaker in bringing both transparency and accountability to central banking in practice.

The paper explores the relationship between financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy. A discussion of narrow liquidity, broad liquidity, market liquidity, and financial distress provides the foundation for the analysis.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "What Assets Should the Federal Reserve Buy?"

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "The Role of a Regional Bank in a System of Central Banks"

Needless to say, it's a great pleasure for both Margaret and me to have this opportunity to return to IU, where we spent four very happy years between mid-1966 and mid-1970.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Monetary Policy Comes of Age: A 20th Century Odyssey"

Mr. Broaddus wishes to thank his long-time colleague, Timothy Cook, for substantial assistance in preparing the address.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Foreign Exchange Operations and the Federal Reserve"

Thank you very much for that kind introduction. It is very nice indeed to be here in the Shenandoah Valley.