Inflation

Speech

A woman buying her son new clothes in a store. She’s at the checkout, paying contactless with her smartphone.

Why Were Forecasts Off?

June 28, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores why it has been particularly challenging to predict the path of the economy over the last few years.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

The Fed's Inflation Target

Speaking of the Economy

May 22, 2024

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's establishment of an inflation target in 2012 and how that has fit within the Fed's evolving monetary policy framework. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Richmond Fed.

Blog Post

Person looking at a long receipt after shopping at the grocery store.

How Broad Are Elevated Price Increases?

Macro Minute

May 14, 2024

Are price increases being experienced across many categories, or is inflation mostly driven by a few stubborn categories? The PCE price index seems to suggest pricing pressure remains broad.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Navigating Data Whiplash

May 6, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on recent data and shares his view on where the U.S. economy is headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Residual Seasonality in Monthly Core Inflation

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-13

Early 2024 inflation numbers appear high, but should such an early-year jump be expected most years?

Andreas Hornstein

Article

When Economists Navigate by the Stars

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Taking into account the uncertainty of the state of the world is the hallmark of good policymaking in economics. Moreover, r* and other stars are just one of many inputs in this process.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Ulrike Malmendier

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

University of California, Berkeley professor Ulrike Malmendier on the long-term effects of inflation and the remembrance of crises past.

David A. Price

Article

A Forecasting Personality Test

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

It's easy to see why people might differ on the path forward for the economy — each forecaster sees the future through his or her own lens.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

The Origins of the 2 Percent Inflation Target

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

The FOMC established its explicit inflation target in January 2012 after a decades-long deliberation. It came in part from the Richmond Fed.

Matthew Wells

Speech

How You Might Look at Recent Data

April 4, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores different ways to look at recent data, and then gives his own perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Inflation and Relative Price Changes Since the Onset of the Pandemic

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-09

High inflation starting in 2021 has coincided with a more dispersed distribution of relative price changes.

Alexander L. Wolman

Podcast

How Inflation Expectations Feed Into Price Setting at Firms

Speaking of the Economy

March 6, 2024

Felipe Schwartzman and Sonya Waddell discuss their research on the relationship between inflation and firms' expectations for their costs and prices, informed by the responses to special questions added to the Richmond Fed's business surveys since 2021.

Blog Post

Small business owner, wearing an apron, sits at a desk as she adds up the day's sales in a notebook and enters the data into her laptop.

Signals From Small Businesses

Macro Minute

March 5, 2024

Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Woman at standing desk in home office talking on business video call while walking on treadmill.

Labor Productivity Is Popping

Macro Minute

February 13, 2024

Due to an increase in labor productivity, strong wage growth is coexisting with encouraging signs of inflation in recent readings. However, productivity growth has historically shown to be volatile.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Inflation: Handle With Care

Feb. 8, 2024

Recent data have been remarkable. President Tom Barkin shares why he still sees reasons for caution.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Man looking at prices and grabbing food from the freezer section of a grocery store.

Are Fifth District Firms Revisiting Their Prices Less Often Amid Cooling Inflation?

Regional Matters

February 2, 2024

Price growth in the Fifth District is slowing, but firms expect annualized growth and price adjustments to be above pre-COVID-19 norms, suggesting that pricing uncertainty persists.

Jason Kosakow and Adam Scavette

Podcast

Woman measuring the height of a really big dollar bill with a tape measure

Measuring Inflation

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 17, 2024

John O'Trakoun reviews different ways of tracking inflation that are intended to screen out noise and provide a more accurate forecast of price levels. He also discusses his unique approach to capturing this key economic indicator. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Stack of coins with arrows pointing upward on top to indicate inflated prices.

Inflation Expectations and Price Setting Among Fifth District Firms

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-03

Even though expectations are not paramount in how most firms set their prices, there is evidence that inflation expectations matter.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

Close up of compass with map and lighthouse overlay to demonstrate charting course.

Charting the Path of Interest Rates

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 10, 2024

Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes discuss how economists wrestle with measuring the natural rate of interest or r-star, why this measure is important for monetary policymakers, and how their model has evolved to better chart the path of interest rates. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Matthes is a professor of economics at Indiana University.

Speech

Heading for a Soft Landing?

Jan. 3, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on 2023 and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Kartik Athreya, the Richmond Fed's research director, answers listeners' questions

Ask the Richmond Fed

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 20, 2023

Kartik Athreya, the Richmond Fed's research director, answers questions submitted by listeners about housing, the Fed's bond purchases, interest rate targeting, and artificial intelligence.

Article

Black and white photo of woman walking into store with prices written on window.

How the Pandemic Era Changed Price-Setting

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

While price-setting is challenging even in normal times, shocks during the past few years, such as the pandemic and inflation, have made it harder.

David A. Price, Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Probing the Pattern of Price Changes: An Update

Macro Minute

December 19, 2023

Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but the recent deviations from target have been close to what one would expect when the Fed has effectively stabilized inflation around its target.

Alexander L. Wolman

Webinar

Economics in the Hot Seat

Nov. 30, 2023

Upcoming Event: What do Uber and the Federal Reserve have in common? They both hire economists! Did you know that some of your favorite brands also hire economists? But what do economists actually do? Registration required.

Blog Post

Households Feeling Down in the Dumps

Macro Minute

November 28, 2023

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Profits and Inflation in the Time of COVID

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-38

An alternative measure of profits — the price-cost markup — suggests that its contribution to inflation in the nonfinancial corporate business sector was rather small.

Andreas Hornstein

Speech

A crane and construction equipment being used to build a new apartment complex

The Housing Challenge

Nov. 15, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how communities in the Fifth District are working to move the needle on housing.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation?

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-37

The evolving behavior of sectoral inflation complicates focusing on aggregate trends.

Paul Ho and Mark W. Watson

Speech

A paved road in the forest forks into two directions

What’s Next for the Economy?

Nov. 9, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores potential paths for the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

An Alternative Measure of Core Inflation: The Trimmed Persistence PCE Price Index

Working Paper Series

November 2023, No. 23-10

John O'Trakoun introduces the "trimmed persistence PCE," a new measure of core inflation in which component prices are weighted according to the time-varying persistence of their price changes.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

News

Fed Listens Fosters Feedback on Post-Pandemic Recovery

Oct. 30, 2023

Richmond Fed leaders and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman heard business and community leaders' perspectives on the state of the local economy.

Forum

woman holding a microphone in front of a group of people

Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy

Oct. 18, 2023

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will lead a discussion about the lingering impact of the pandemic on the economy and the workforce. The general public is invited to listen in, via livestream, as Barkin, Bowman and several special guests explore the challenges and opportunities that exist as the region served by the Richmond Fed continues the transition to a new normal.

Speech

Tom Barkin meeting with community members in a cafe

Looking Beyond Recent Data

Oct. 17, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses what he is hearing on the ground from Fifth District contacts, and how it compares to recent data.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Long-Run Average Inflation

Macro Minute

October 17, 2023

How does the latest monthly data affect progress versus the Fed's long-run 2 percent average inflation target?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Warehouse supervisor walking and talking with senior manager

The New Job Hierarchy

Sept. 28, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Untangling Persistent Inflation: Understanding the Factors at Work

Economic Brief

September 2023, No. 23-31

The factors include intrinsic persistence, indexation, fiscal policy and unanchoring of expectations.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Elevated Margins in the PPI

Macro Minute

September 5, 2023

Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Is PCE Inflation Back on Track?

Macro Minute

August 29, 2023

In three of the last four months, inflation has been within the prediction interval based on data from the pre-pandemic era, when inflation was stable near the Fed's 2 percent target.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

A Rate Cycle Unlike Any Other

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-26

The current cycle appears to be unique in how inflation has moved during this most recent series of rate hikes.

Conner Mulloy, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Erin Henry

Podcast

Uncertainty About the Effects of Monetary Policy

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 9, 2023

Paul Ho talks about how economists model the interactions between monetary policy and the economy and the challenges of determining the economic effects of policy with precision. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

A hand erasing question marks on a blackboard

Recession Revisited

Aug. 3, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses what’s driving the resilient U.S. economy and where it may be headed next.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Directional signs pointing in various directions

Where are the Region's Economies Heading?

Speaking of the Economy

June 28, 2023

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matt Martin share what their business contacts have told them about regional economic conditions in the Fifth District.

Conference

CORE Week branded image of a presenter talking about his paper to economists

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

Speech

Close up of a person's hand swiping a credit card.

The Inflation Story

June 16, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores a plausible story for how inflation returns to target.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Inflation Staying Persistent

Macro Minute

May 09, 2023

Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

the word "inflation" with a small chart on newsprint

Detecting Inflation Instability

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-11

Do relative price changes account for the behavior of inflation in the pandemic and post-pandemic eras?

Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

The Need to Be Nimble

March 30, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses recent data and events and explores potential implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Woman holding a receipt while seated at a laptop

What’s Keeping Inflation Elevated?

March 3, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses how he sees the economy, and the implications for inflation and for policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Trade-offs in Fulfilling the Fed’s Dual Mandate

Economic Brief

March 2023, No. 23-08

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

A CPI Basket Case

Macro Minute

February 28, 2023

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Tom Barkin on Inflation and the Fed's Response

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 8, 2023

Tom Barkin discusses the state of inflation and the monetary policy response of the Federal Reserve, as well as his outlook on the national economy. Barkin is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

What Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Tell Us

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-03

Many models and surveys on inflation expectations exist to help answer this question. In this Economic Brief, we explore the accuracy of these measures of inflation expectations and what information can be obtained from them.

Erin Henry, Conner Mulloy and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Speech

Directional sign silhouetted against the sunset.

2023 Economic Outlook

Jan. 12, 2023

President Tom Barkin reflects on monetary policy and the economy in 2022 and shares his thoughts on what’s ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Watching Services Inflation in 2023

Macro Minute

January 10, 2023

For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Inflation in the Economy: Getting Here, and Looking Ahead

Jan. 6, 2023

The past few years have seen unprecedented real economy shocks, which are particularly hard to deal with for any central bank, and so drove a lot of the inflation in the wake of the pandemic's arrival.

Kartik Athreya
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Article

A whiteboard with words about Monetary Policy

Inflation and the Road Ahead for Research

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

While the Fed has never been a stranger to criticism, the criticism has been notable and specific during the past year. The subject: inflation.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

How Long Will Higher Inflation Last?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

For the first time in more than a generation, we are grappling with high, broad-based, and persistent inflation. Is there an end in sight?

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Podcast

Manufacturing and service sector surveys

What Surveys Say About the Regional and National Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 7, 2022

Jason Kosakow and Santiago Pinto describe how survey data is gathered and used to assess regional and national economic conditions. Kosakow is survey director and Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Image of the signed Inflation Reduction Act

Understanding the Inflation Reduction Act

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

In August, President Biden signed into law a spending, revenue, and deficit reduction bill titled the Inflation Reduction Act. This bill intends to control inflation and reduce the country's deficit, but critics argue the consequences could outweigh the benefits.

Sam Louis Taylor

Article

Inflation: An Uninvited Thanksgiving Dinner Guest

Macro Minute

November 22, 2022

This year, inflation will probably feature in some of conversations over Thanksgiving dinner. To prepare you for this onslaught, this post will take stock of how inflation has gobbled up part of the holiday budget.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

How Long Will Inflation Stick Around?

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 16, 2022

John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel Sarte discuss the persistence of inflation over the years and what may set apart the current period of elevated prices compared to historical patterns. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist and Sarte is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Are Services Serving Up a Wage-Price Spiral?

Macro Minute

November 15, 2022

How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?

John O'Trakoun and Brennan Merone

Blog Post

stock image for article on causes of recent high inflation

Inflation and the Price Expectations of Firms

Regional Matters

November 10, 2022

Our Fifth District business surveys indicate that firms are paying more attention to inflation as they make price- and wage-setting decisions. But businesses also expect own-price growth and inflation to moderate in the near future.

Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

The Fed vs. Inflation: Monetary Policy Under the Microscope

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 19, 2022

Kartik Athreya responds to recent critiques of the Federal Reserve and its efforts to combat inflation. Athreya is executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Student Debt Cancellation Raises the Price Level and Inflation

Macro Minute

October 11, 2022

A key concern about the Biden administration's debt forgiveness program is its inflationary impact. This post provides a back-of-the-envelope calculation of this impact, based on a specific view of the federal budget and how it interacts with monetary and fiscal policies.

Aubrey George and Thomas A. Lubik

Blog Post

How Pump Prices Play With Monetary Policy

Macro Minute

October 4, 2022

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Close-up of hands of person using a tablet computer

The Evolution of Technological Disruption

Oct. 3, 2022

President Barkin reflects on the relationship between technological innovation, the economy and monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Close-up on the hands of a woman picking eggs in a supermarket

What’s Driving Inflation?

Sept. 30, 2022

President Tom Barkin considers the forces behind today’s high inflation and offers his outlook for the economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Rising Rates and Interest Rate Risk Management

Supervision News Flash

September 2022

Learn about key trends and considerations related to balance sheet management and interest rate risk practices in a highly dynamic economic environment.

Greg Dodt and Mina Oldham

Article

Analyzing Fiscal Policy Matters More Than Ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-39

This theory may be obscure, even to economists, but it can have quite an impact on inflation.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Building A Pipeline Between Producer and Consumer Prices

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-38

The relationship between the producer price index and consumer price indexes has not always been clear.

John O'Trakoun and David Ramachandran

Article

Anticipated FOMC Policy, Inflation and Credibility

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-37

One can argue whether the FOMC's response to inflation has been strong enough, but financial markets and surveys suggest that the Fed retains credibility for low inflation in the long run.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflation, and the Fed

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Today's inflationary snarls reflect both supply shocks and policy stimulus.

John Mullin

Article

Following Through

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that monetary policy is a blunt instrument and using it to bring down inflation could entail some short-term pain. This risk, though, must be compared with outcomes that would confront the Fed and the economy were clear action not forthcoming.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Columbia University economist on inflation, capital controls, and finding research topics.

David A. Price

Article

A Shift in the Inflation Winds?

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Following the Great Moderation — an era of low and stable inflation — the wind seems to have shifted. What does this mean for Fed policy?

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

a worker outside a large pile of shipping containers

Are Recession Fears Replacing Supply Chain Challenges? Evidence from Fifth District Business Surveys

Regional Matters

September 1, 2022

Supply chain disruptions and fluctuating input costs are improving for some Fifth District firms, but the threat of a recession looms large according to August's surveys of businesses.

Zach Edwards

Blog Post

The 2021 Rise in U.S. Inflation: A Cross-Country Perspective

Macro Minute

August 23, 2022

Inflation has hit most other advanced economies in addition to the United States. What can we learn from their experiences?

Thomas A. Lubik and Alexander L. Wolman

Podcast

What's Happening in Our Region's Economy? A Focus on Virginia

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 17, 2022

Renee Haltom offers an overview of economic conditions in Virginia, based on her recent conversations with local contacts and analysis of the data. Haltom is a vice president and regional executive at the Richmond Fed, with responsibility for engagement with businesses and communities in Virginia.

Blog Post

Income, Spending and Inflation

Macro Minute

August 16, 2022

Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

an illustration of a figure pushing a cart up a line chart

How Persistent Is Inflation?

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-31

Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.

Conner Mulloy, John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Speech

Woman working with a laptop, pencil, paper and calculator in kitchen at home

Winning the War on Inflation

Aug. 3, 2022

President Tom Barkin outlines how he expects inflation to come down.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Inflation and Fed Policy

Speaking of the Economy

July 13, 2022

John O'Trakoun offers an update on where inflation stands, how it is affecting the economy, and what steps the Federal Reserve is taking to bring it down. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Richmond Fed and primary author of the Bank's Macro Minute blog.

Blog Post

Update on Trimmed Mean Inflation

Macro Minute

July 12, 2022

While some measures of inflation show modest signs of improvement, trimmed mean inflation tells another story.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Do Black Households Face Higher and More Volatile Inflation?

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-25

Many assume that inflation affects all households the same. But that doesn't appear to be true.

Munseob Lee

Blog Post

Experiences and Expectations of Inflation

Macro Minute

June 28, 2022

The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.

Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun

Working Paper

Relative Price Shocks and Inflation (Revised March 2024)

Working Paper Series

June 2022, No. 22-07R

Decomposing the 2012-2019 inflation shortfall, and its surge starting in 2021, we find that sectoral shocks were major contributors to the inflation deviations from target.

Francisco Ruge-Murcia and Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Group of businesspeople raising their hands to ask questions during a conference

The Recession Question

June 21, 2022

As the Fed works to contain inflation, many ask whether we are headed into a recession. President Barkin shares his perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Image of dollar bill with the word fed spelled out in letter blocks

Unwinding Pandemic Monetary Policy

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

When COVID-19 hit, it put consumers and businesses in unprecedented difficulty. Given the magnitude of the unique shock hitting the economy, the Fed acted to ensure that broader financial conditions did not further hurt consumers and businesses.

Kartik B. Athreya

Blog Post

Revisiting Forecasts for Rent Inflation

Macro Minute

May 24, 2022

Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

The Legacy of Marvin Goodfriend

Speaking of the Economy

May 18, 2022

Alex Wolman and Robert King reflect on the life and legacy of Marvin Goodfriend. Throughout his career, Goodfriend wrote a number of influential papers on monetary policy and played a key role in the development of the Richmond Fed's Research Department.

Blog Post

Really Yearning for Real Earnings

Macro Minute

May 17, 2022

Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Man at a desk using a calculator and holding paper money in his hand

Why We Care About Inflation

May 10, 2022

Inflation hasn’t been a hot topic for decades. Now that it’s back, it’s clear consumers and businesses dislike it. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses why and how the Fed is working to contain it.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Credibility and Explicit Inflation Targeting

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

This essay reviews Marvin Goodfriend's path to making the case that the U.S. should adopt an explicit inflation targeting system.

Robert G. King and Yang K. Lu

Article

Reconsidering the Case for Price Stability

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

This essay explains why central banks have targeted a 2 percent target inflation rate instead of literal price stability.

Vitor Gaspar and Frank Smets

Article

Taming Inflation Scares

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

Marvin Goodfriend drew a number of conceptual and policy implications from his analysis of inflation scares, which have become part of the central banks' approaches to monetary policy.

Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams

Article

From the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

This essay reviews the Volcker and Greenspan policy accomplishments at the Fed, as well as Marvin Goodfriend's contributions during this timespan.

Robert L. Hetzel

Article

Rational Expectations and Volcker’s Disinflation

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 9, 2022

An examination of Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King's "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation" paper.

Thomas J. Sargent

Speech

Ocean wave at sunrise in a tropical sea with reflections of the sky

Beyond Today’s Inflation Storm

April 12, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores the conditions we may face once we navigate through the current inflation storm.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Small Towns, Big Cities, Shared Inflation

Macro Minute

April 12, 2022

A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?

Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun

Podcast

The Impact of Relative Price Changes on Recent Inflation

Speaking of the Economy

March 23, 2022

Alexander Wolman provides the basics on how the Fed looks at changes in price levels, reviews the distribution of recent price increases, and discusses their implications for overall inflation. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

A man with a hammer, broken piggy bank and counted savings

Containing Inflation

March 18, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how the Federal Reserve is working to contain inflation and reflects on the post-pandemic era economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Relative Price Changes Are Unlikely to Account for Recent High Inflation

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-10

The recent high inflation had been due to price changes in a small group of expenditures, but that changed a few months ago.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

Are Firms Factoring Increasing Inflation Into Their Prices?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-08

Many firms don't follow inflation closely for setting prices, but the recent high inflation may have some firms taking a closer look.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Your Attention Please ...

Macro Minute

February 15, 2022

While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

illustrative image of infrastructure construction

Does Infrastructure Spending Boost the Economy?

Economic Brief

February 2022, No. 22-04

Studies suggest that short-term effects of such spending are small and long-term effects depend on an economy's sensitivity to such investment.

Marios Karabarbounis

Essay

A business person reviewing charts in a notebook and tablet

The Economy: What We’ve Learned

Jan. 13, 2022

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

I Spy with My PPI … More High CPI?

Macro Minute

January 4, 2022

A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Forecasting Inflation

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

For policymakers and market participants, inflation can be challenging to predict.

Tim Sablik

Podcast

A Look Back at 2021

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 8, 2021

Andy Bauer, Matt Martin and Renee Haltom reflect on the past year, sharing what they have learned from their contacts about the national and regional economies that they follow.

Blog Post

Have Wages Kept Up with Inflation?

Macro Minute

October 19, 2021

Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Inflation Expectations: Separating the Signal from the Noise

Economic Brief

October 2021, No. 21-33

Since 1980, survey forecasts have been modestly and consistently higher on average than the forecasts derived from a signal extraction model.

John Mullin, John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Article

Vision of an upward arrow with Ben Franklin's $100 image in background

How Broad-Based Is the Recent High Inflation?

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-30

The annualized PCE inflation rate over the period March through July is 6.5 percent, the highest five-month rate since November 1981.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

coins and a chart of trendlines in front of a wall calendar

Is Your Inflation Different?

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

Not everyone experiences the same inflation. What does that mean for monetary policy?

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Gimme Shelter Inflation

Macro Minute

July 13, 2021

The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

What Does the FOMC's Shift in Fed Funds Rate Target Language Mean?

Economic Brief

July 2021, No. 21-22

The new language — which has been in each FOMC statement since September — represents a significant shift in the committee's thinking.

Alexander L. Wolman

Blog Post

Trimming Off The Best Bits?

Macro Minute

July 6, 2021

Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

What Decade Are We In?

July 6, 2021

President Tom Barkin shares his perspective on recent economic data and the outlook for inflation.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Fed’s New Framework

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

With a revised strategy, the Fed responds to challenges facing central banks today

Tim Sablik

Article

MMT and Government Finance: You Can't Always Get What You Want

Economic Brief

April 2021, No. 21-12

The "modern monetary theory" tenet that governments can continuously print money to fund deficits ignores the fact that governments ultimately must satisfy creditors.

Michael U. Krause, Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Speech

The Economy and the Question of Inflation

Sept. 24, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin spoke about the outlook for inflation at a webinar hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Making Up Is Hard to Do

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2020

The process of guiding inflation expectations higher is not likely to be easy. Indeed, the historical record suggests that making up for periods of below-target inflation will be challenging.

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Article

Money Supply

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2019

Knowing about the components of the nation's money supply and its evolving role in the economy is important for monetary policy.

Mike Finnegan

Article

Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles

Economic Brief

April 2019, No. 19-04

This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component (cycles up to thirty-two years), and a long-term component (the trend).

Renee Haltom, Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Fabio Verona

Article

Pile of money spread out showing $100 bill

Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship between Money and Prices

Economic Brief

February 2019, No. 19-02

Huberto M. Ennis and Tim Sablik

Speech

The Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch

Oct. 3, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke on the national economic outlook October 3, 2018, in Charleston, West Virginia.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Great Expectations

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2018

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Speech

Unlocking Our Potential

Aug. 8, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to community and business leaders in Roanoke, Virginia, about strategies to boost economic growth.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A Conversation With Tom Barkin

May 7, 2018

President Tom Barkin spoke at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. on May 7, 2018.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Economic Brief

November 2016, No. 16-11

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Publication

Inflation Targeting: Could Bad Luck Explain Persistent One-Sided Misses?

Economic Brief

September 2015, No. 15-09

Andreas Hornstein, Joe Johnson and Karl Rhodes

Article

What's It Like on the FOMC?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

FOMC meetings are set up to bring a wide range of perspectives to bear

Jeffrey M. Lacker

Speech

Economic Outlook, April 2015

April 10, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, March 2015

March 31, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Discussion on "Scarcity of Safe Assets, Inflation, and the Policy Trap" by Andolfatto and Williamson

Working Paper Series

March 2015, No. 15-03

Huberto M. Ennis

Article

Richmond's Hawkish Tradition

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

The Richmond Fed has a long tradition of concern for price stability

Tim Sablik

Article

Birds of a Feather

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Does the hawk-dove distinction still matter in the modern Fed?

Tim Sablik

Article

Disinflation

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Disinflation is when inflation is falling. The Fed sometimes deliberately brings about disinflation, but there is a risk of it becoming outright deflation.

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Prospects for Growth and Labor Markets

Oct. 9, 2014

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the national economic outlook during the Bank’s Regional Forum in Asheville, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Price Dynamics with Customer Markets

Working Paper Series

October 2014, No. 14-17

Luigi Paciello, Andrea Pozzi and Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Economic Outlook, July 2014

July 8, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

Working Paper Series

April 2014, No. 14-10

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, Christian Matthes and Mu-Chun Wang

Working Paper

Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-08

This paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers.

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-07

Timothy Cogley, Christian Matthes and Argia M. Sbordone

Working Paper

Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation

Working Paper Series

February 2014, No. 14-02

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2014

Jan. 17, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

State Dependent Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-17

Nicholas Trachter, Francesco Lippi and Stefania Ragni

Working Paper

Can Monetarists Explain Recession in the Eurozone? (Revised August 2015)

Working Paper Series

July 2013, No. 13-07R

Robert L. Hetzel

Publication

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

May 2013, No. 13-05

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Economics and the Federal Reserve After the Crisis

Feb. 12, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks with students and faculty at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models (Revised September 2015)

Working Paper Series

December 2012, No. 12-09R

Carlos Carvalho and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

July 28, 2011

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Discretionary Monetary Policy in the Calvo Model (Revised March 2017)

Working Paper Series

June 2011, No. 11-03R

Willem Van Zandweghe and Alexander L. Wolman

Working Paper

Inventories, Inflation Dynamics, and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Working Paper Series

February 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Wing Leong Teo

Publication

Is the Output Gap a Faulty Gauge for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

January 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Stephen Slivinski

Region Focus - Fall 2009

Region Focus

Fall 2009

Cover Story: The Price is Right? Has the financial crisis provided a fatal blow to the efficient market hypothesis?

Publication

The Effect of Interest on Reserves on Monetary Policy

Economic Brief

December 2009, No. 09-12

John R. Walter and Renee Haltom

Working Paper

On the Implementation of Markov-Perfect Monetary Policy (Revised August 2011)

Working Paper Series

April 2009, No. 09-6R

Michael Dotsey and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices

Working Paper Series

March 2009, No. 09-2

Alexander L. Wolman

Publication

Inflation Expectations: Their Sources and Effects

Economic Brief

October 2008, No. 08-01

Yash P. Mehra and Devin Reilly

Working Paper

Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis

Working Paper Series

March 2008, No. 08-1

Michael U. Krause, David Lopez-Salido and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Avoiding the Inflation Tax

Working Paper Series

December 2007, No. 07-6

Huberto M. Ennis

Working Paper

Notes on the Inflation Dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Working Paper Series

August 2007, No. 07-4

Andreas Hornstein

Speech

The Inflation Outlook

May 22, 2007

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke May 22, 2007 at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York, N.Y.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Inflation and Unemployment (revised)

April 11, 2007

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke April 11, 2007 at the Charlotte Economics Club in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Comments on "Understanding the Evolving Inflation Process"

March 9, 2007

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke March 9, 2007 at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum 2007 in Washington, D.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

How Should Regulators Respond to Financial Innovation?

Dec. 1, 2006

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke December 1, 2006 at The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum in Philadelphia, Pa.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Region Focus - Winter 2006

Region Focus

Winter 2006

Cover Story: Family Portrait. Life is hard in one of Baltimore's toughest neighborhoods. But for Janice Walker, it's home.

Publication

Annual Report - 2006

Annual Report

2006

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve"

Working Paper

Avoiding the Inflation Tax

Working Paper Series

October 2005, No. 05-10

Huberto M. Ennis

Working Paper

The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look

Working Paper Series

August 2004, No. 04-6

Yash P. Mehra

Working Paper

Price Stability and Japanese Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

February 2004, No. 04-1

Robert L. Hetzel

Working Paper

Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Working Paper Series

December 2003, No. 03-15

Alexander L. Wolman

Working Paper

Fiscal Policy and Regional Inflation in a Currency Union

Working Paper Series

August 2003, No. 03-11

This paper investigates the ability of a region participating in a currency union to affect its inflation differential with respect to the union through fiscal policy.

Margarida Duarte and Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Comments on Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

Jan. 3, 2003

It's a pleasure to be here today and to have this opportunity to comment on conducting monetary policy in a low inflation environment.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Publication

Annual Report - 2003

Annual Report

2003

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Sustaining Price Stability"

Working Paper

The Taylor Principle, Interest Rate Smoothing and Fed Policy in the 1970s and 1980s

Working Paper Series

August 2001, No. 01-5

Yash P. Mehra

Working Paper

The Case for Price Stability

Working Paper Series

April 2001, No. 01-2

Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King

Working Paper

Financial Stability, Deflation, and Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

January 2001, No. 01-1

The paper explores the relationship between financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy. A discussion of narrow liquidity, broad liquidity, market liquidity, and financial distress provides the foundation for the analysis.

Marvin Goodfriend

Publication

Annual Report - 1998

Annual Report

1998

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Mercantilists and Classicals: Insights from Doctrinal History"

Speech

U.S. Monetary Policy: Looking Back to Find the Future

Oct. 17, 1996

Needless to say, it's a great pleasure for both Margaret and me to have this opportunity to return to IU, where we spent four very happy years between mid-1966 and mid-1970.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Publication

Annual Report - 1996

Annual Report

1996

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Monetary Policy Comes of Age: A 20th Century Odyssey"

Speech

Reflections on Monetary Policy

March 16, 1995

Mr. Broaddus wishes to thank his long-time colleague, Timothy Cook, for substantial assistance in preparing the address.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Speech

Central Banking: Then and Now

April 2, 1993

Thank you very much for that kind introduction. It is very nice indeed to be here in the Shenandoah Valley.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President