Employment and Labor Markets

Article

The Value of Government Services: Evidence From Flight Delays During the 2025 Shutdown

Economic Brief

December 2025, No. 25-45

An estimated 1 million extra work-hours of delay were incurred during the 43 days of shutdown beginning Oct. 1, costing $66 million nationwide.

Russell Wong

Podcast

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin giving a speech

Year in Review with Tom Barkin

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 17, 2025

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back at 2025 and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of uncertainty and changes in the economy, including trade policy, consumer sentiment, and labor market demand and supply. He also discusses how monetary policymakers have navigated the year.

Blog Post

Phantom Figures: Missing Data in October

Macro Minute

December 16, 2025

The government shutdown interrupted the collection of price data in October, but what would "actual" conditions have looked like in October if data were available?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Operating With Limited Data

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

While the government shutdown delayed official data releases, private sector data and outreach efforts helped Fed policymakers keep a pulse on the economy.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Field of brown cows grazing in a field with grain silos in the background.

Virginia's Small Farmers Weather Unpredictability

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

Small farmers are important producers in Virginia's agriculture industry, but they face mounting costs and uncertain revenue. What keeps them going?

Katrina Mullen

Blog Post

A concerned business owner pondering his restaurant's expenses.

What Businesses Are Saying: The Economy Kept Chugging Along

Regional Matters

December 12, 2025

Since the last FOMC cycle, businesses said growth has been solid, but narrow; the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium continues.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Working Paper

Spousal Labor Response to Primary Income: Identification and Heterogeneity

Working Paper Series

November 2025, No. 25-13

When a primary worker' income drops unexpectedly, spousal labor supply and earnings increase to compensate, especially in young households with limited financial assets.

Yongsung Chang, Elin Halvorsen and Marios Karabarbounis

Blog Post

Goldfish gathered around a hook with "opportunity" label attached.

Something Fishy With Job Openings?

Macro Minute

November 18, 2025

Something fishy about job openings? As of August, there were 7.2 million job openings, compared to the five-year pre-pandemic average of 6.4 million. This post will explore the V/U ratio and the labor market.

Samina Stack and John O'Trakoun

Article

Anton Korinek

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

Anton Korinek provides insight on how rapid advances in AI might reshape the nature of work and how economists can help society prepare.

Tim Sablik

Article

Woman in business attire hugging her tablet while deep in thought.

Finding New Opportunities for Federal Workers

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

As the federal government shrinks its payroll, local stakeholders are working to bring displaced employees back into the workforce.

Matthew Wells

Podcast

What Businesses Are Saying

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 5, 2025

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom, and Matt Martin share what they are hearing about economic conditions from their business contacts in the Fifth District. They also discuss variations in conditions by sector and region as well as how businesses currently view labor markets and price levels. Bauer, Haltom, and Martin are regional executives at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

A paper's headline reads "The credit crunch" and is placed on top of a one-dollar bill.

Credit Supply Shocks During a Nonfinancial Recession

Economic Brief

November 2025, No. 25-41

Banks' behavior can still amplify economic downturns even when they are not the source of a crisis and have robust liquidity and capital positions.

Carlo Alcaraz, Nicolas Amoroso, Rodolfo Oviedo, Alex Rivadeneira, Brenda Samaniego de la Parra and Horacio Sapriza

Blog Post

Hundred-dollar bill with a stethoscope laying on top.

What Businesses Are Saying: Few Signs of Major Shifts

Regional Matters

October 31, 2025

Conversations with businesses since the last FOMC cycle did not suggest any big shifts in the economy; economic conditions remained stable.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Person using a keyboard to search for job listings on the internet.

Time for a Career Change? Inter-Industry Job Mobility in the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath led to increased job switching, but the recent cooling of the labor market could slow mobility.

Bethany Greene
Regional Economist

Article

Close up on a couple passports laying on a vintage map with one open to show a visa.

Understanding the Potential Impact of H-1B Visa Program Changes

Economic Brief

October 2025, No. 25-39

Proposed changes to the H-1B program, including the new one-time $100,000 processing fee, could have widespread effects.

Nicolas Morales

Blog Post

Man in suit holds his layoff letter as he gathers office materials into a box.

Rising Unemployment Risks: Suddenly, Then Gradually

Macro Minute

October 14, 2025

How have asymmetric unemployment rate movements unfolded during previous recessions?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Staff hire, train, motivate and retain written on sticky notes.

Fifth District Firms' Employment Expectations for the Year Ahead: Findings From the September Business Surveys

Regional Matters

October 3, 2025

While most Fifth District firms intend to increase full-time employment or hold it steady due to projected demand increase, others intend to decrease through attrition or a combination of attrition and layoffs.

Nathan Sumner
Business Analyst

Blog Post

Payroll Revisions: An Upcoming September Surprise?

Macro Minute

September 30, 2025

Are some months noisier than others when estimating payroll employment growth?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Kitchen employee sweeping around their station.

Do Federal Layoffs Have Ripple Effects on Local Economies?

Economic Brief

September 2025, No. 25-36

Federal employees make up 1.8 percent of the U.S. workforce, but they tend to be concentrated in specific regions.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Regional executives meeting with business leaders around a conference table.

What Businesses Are Saying: Activity Up, but Expectations Mixed

Regional Matters

September 19, 2025

This post shares sensing insights from business contacts in recent weeks. Overall, businesses said activity increased somewhat while expectations remained mixed, labor availability improved, and more cost passthrough was expected.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Blog Post

A busy street crossing with men in suits, backpacks, and with suitcases heading to work.

The Foreign-Born Workforce in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

September 4, 2025

Foreign-born workers have made outsized contributions to the Fifth District's labor force growth, but the concentration of these workers varies across industry and geography.

Bethany Greene and Anthony Tringali

Podcast

Teenager sitting beside car pulled off to the side of the road.

The Disconnected Youth Problem

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 3, 2025

Claudia Macaluso shares what she has learned about young people who are not employed, in school, or undergoing training, and what potential interventions could bring these disconnected youth into the workforce. Macaluso is a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Magnifying glass focused on a payroll chart.

Answers Don't Come Easy

Macro Minute

August 26, 2025

Were declining response rates to the Current Employment Statistics survey responsible for July's outsized data revision?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Job applicants waiting in a line of chairs as they review their notes.

How to Gauge Maximum Employment

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-32

The Fed's "maximum employment" mandate isn't directly measurable, so how can we tell if the economy is close?

Marios Karabarbounis

Blog Post

Group of people in business attire awaiting their name to be called for a job interview.

July's Labor Market: Dumbbell-Shaped Dangers

Macro Minute

August 12, 2025

As the least experienced and longest unemployed workers face rising challenges finding jobs, there are signs of "dumbbell-shaped" danger for the labor market.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Man in business attire carrying a box of his office belongings.

Recent Employment Changes in the Washington, D.C., Area

Regional Matters

July 17, 2025

The DMV region comprises a large share of federal employees who have experienced both employment declines and elevated unemployment claims. Employment changes are occurring in the private sector as well.

Taylor Pessin

Podcast

Worker leaving his officed job, carrying stuff from his desk in a box

What's Keeping Workers on the Sidelines?

Speaking of the Economy

July 16, 2025

Andy Bauer and John Bailey Jones discuss the factors that have shaped the demand for and supply of labor in recent years. They also talk about the barriers to labor force participation in Maryland, including lack of affordable child care and housing. Bauer is vice president and regional executive for the Baltimore branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis.

Article

City hall building made of sandstone bricks.

Impacts of Government Spending Changes on Local Economies

Economic Brief

July 2025, No. 25-28

Local multipliers mean changes in government spending can have amplified effects on local economies.

Santiago Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Container ship full of cargo sailing towards us as the sun sets in the distance.

South Carolina's Globalized Economy

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Driven by the auto industry, the Palmetto State is a global economic player. How will tariff uncertainty impact its businesses?

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Young adults sitting around a table and discussing notes as an instructor offers input.

Female-Dominated Industries Driving Payroll Growth

Macro Minute

July 1, 2025

In May, the industries that contributed most to job growth also employ more women than average. This may have ramifications for young job seekers and provide insight into gender divides in employment during recessions.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Group office workers having a meeting in a closed glass conference room.

Fifth District Employment: Findings From the June Business Surveys

Regional Matters

June 24, 2025

Survey data indicates that many Fifth District firms expect to keep employment levels relatively stable, with uncertainty around economic conditions and consumer behavior remaining an important consideration.

Nathan Sumner and Jason Kosakow

Article

Young man wearing safety goggles and receiving vocational training from his teacher.

Human Capital Investment: Would Higher-Order Skills Help Disconnected Youth?

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-24

In 2024, a significant number (12 percent) of 16-24 year olds were classified as "NEET" (not in employment, education or training).

Claudia Macaluso

Article

Researching Rural Economies

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Understanding the place-based economics of rural areas is crucial for identifying the challenges they face and potential opportunities for economic growth in each community.

Anna Kovner
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Podcast

Cartoon of people mining zeros and ones from a pie chart

How the Fed Mines Data for New Insights

Speaking of the Economy

May 14, 2025

Nicolas Morales, Horacio Sapriza, and Chen Yeh take listeners behind the scenes on how they work with detailed, confidential datasets about businesses and individuals. They also discuss how they gain insights on topics like immigration, credit markets, and labor productivity while safeguarding privacy rights. Morales is an economist, Sapriza is a senior economist and policy advisor, and Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Group of nonprofit workers smiling and discussing community outreach plans.

How Big Is the Nonprofit Sector?

Macro Minute

March 25, 2025

The size and role the nonprofit sector play in the economy may have contributed to the slowdown of services spending in January.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

A business owner putting up a help wanted sign on their storefront window.

Hiring Puzzle: Why Do Firms Decrease Hiring So Much in Recessions?

Economic Brief

March 2025, No. 25-10

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.

Katarína Borovičková

Podcast

Office building exterior resembling a blue wave

Has the Wave of New Businesses Crested?

Speaking of the Economy

March 19, 2025

Chen Yeh provides an update on the longevity and broader impacts of the surge in start-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

A teacher leads a sing-along with a group of happy preschoolers.

Early Childhood Education in the Fifth District: The Challenges and the Opportunities

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2025

The benefits of early childhood education are well known, but factors such as cost and a shortage of child care workers still present obstacles.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Blog Post

The United States Capital building with the American flag waving in the wind.

What Might Cuts to the Federal Government Workforce Mean for the Fifth District?

Regional Matters

March 4, 2025

A reduction of the federal workforce will affect D.C., Maryland, and Virginia more extensively than the rest of the country, but much depends on how and where the cuts occur.

Stephanie Norris, Santiago Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Help wanted ad clipped from the classified section of a newspaper.

Sifting Through Revisions, Labor Market Seems Strong

Macro Minute

February 25, 2025

What is the nature of the BLS data revisions, and do they change our understanding of the current state of the labor market?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Artwork of man in suite standing atop a dollar sign that is floating in water; he is peering into the future with his telescope.

Looking Ahead at 2025

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 19, 2025

Renee Haltom and Sonya Waddell share what recent surveys and conversations with Fifth District contacts reveal about the expectations of businesses for their own prospects and the economy as a whole, as well as firms' concerns about inflation, labor markets, and other potential challenges in 2025. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Woman hanging up a chalkboard that advertises a grand opening for her cafe.

Will the Pandemic Surge in Employer Business Formation Last?

Economic Brief

January 2025, No. 25-01

Related indicators have been reverting to historical trends, suggesting the startup boom may be subsiding.

Chen Yeh

Working Paper

The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream

Working Paper Series

January 2025, No. 25-01

Research shows the H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science occupations and helped drive the shift in IT production from the United States to India.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

Center for Advancing Women in Economics (AWE)

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2024, No. 24-40

The topics presented included unconventional monetary and fiscal policy, global inflation patterns and worker responses to labor shocks.

Matthew Wells

Working Paper

A teetering seesaw with wooden figurines representing people balanced on each side sits on a pile of money.

Minority Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

December 2024, No. 24-16

This paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races.

Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Magnifying glass focusing on a set of dice that spell out 2025 and are laying on cash.

Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025

Regional Matters

December 20, 2024

The Richmond Fed's November business survey special questions revealed firms' expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. Firms also shared if they have or plan to reduce the size of their workforce in the coming months.

Joseph Mengedoth and Jason Kosakow

Working Paper

Diverse group of office workers brainstorming an idea that's being formulated on a whiteboard.

Assortative Matching and Wages: The Role of Selection

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-14

Results imply that encouraging high-wage firms to hire low-wage workers may be less effective at reducing wage inequality than wage patterns suggest.

Katarína Borovičková and Robert Shimer

Survey

Students walking on campus between classes

First Look: The 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes

Nov. 19, 2024

In 2024, 121 schools from across all five states in the Fifth District participated in the Survey of Community College Outcomes. We also expanded our survey to include more detailed data on community college wraparound services.

Survey

First Look: The 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes

Nov. 19, 2024

In 2024, 121 schools from across all five states in the Fifth District participated in the Survey of Community College Outcomes. We also expanded our survey to include more detailed data on community college wraparound services.

Article

Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

When examining the effects of H-1B immigration on the labor market, researchers found these immigrants don't seem to displace native workers overall, often complementing their skills instead.

Lindsay Li

Blog Post

Two images: left side is a city; right side is a small town

Rural Populations Face Higher and More Volatile Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

November 19, 2024

Rural communities appear to face higher unemployment rates and grapple with economic challenges that are distinct from their urban neighbors.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

Graphic with binary code around a stack of hundred-dollar bills.

The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-13

This paper explores the role of technological shocks and if their impact triggers a response that resembles business cycles.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Close up young woman holding her letter of recommendation.

To Whom It May Concern: Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-35

Recent research suggests that there are meaningful differences in the content of recommendation letters correlated with gender, race and ethnicity.

Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner

Article

A smiling grocery store clerk with an apron on standing in front of merchandise.

The Persistent Decline of LFP Rates for Older Individuals Around the Pandemic

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-34

Some inferred early retirement or unexpected wealth gains played a role, but the data suggest that these drops were either not very persistent or reflected as part of long-run trends.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Podcast

Students on the steps of a small college

The Role of Anchor Institutions in Regional Economies

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 16, 2024

Deborah Diamond and Adam Scavette discuss how anchor institutions such as universities and hospitals fit into the economic life of communities. Diamond is director of the Anchor Economy Initiative at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Scavette is a regional economist at the Baltimore office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Stacks of coins increasing in a step like-manner with graphical charts in the background showing an upward trend.

Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Decreasing the Gap Between Richer and Poorer Workers

Economic Brief

October 2024, No. 24-32

While closing the gap is difficult to tackle directly through policy, there are potential avenues for policymakers to help.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Working Paper

Close up of a person typing on a keyboard.

Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation for Economics Ph.D. Students (Revised October 2025)

Working Paper Series

October 2024, No. 24-11R

Findings suggest there are meaningful differences in the content of recommendation letters correlated with the gender, race, and ethnicity of the candidate, which matter in predicting early career outcomes.

Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner

Blog Post

Job Finding Rates Are Falling

Macro Minute

October 8, 2024

Looking into what types of workers are having difficulty finding a job sheds light on the recent rise in the unemployment rate.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

What Yesterday's Economy Tells Us About Today

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 25, 2024

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back on recent economic trends and how they have shaped the current state of the national economy.

Article

Children participate in story hour at a child care center in New Britain, Connecticut.

When Uncle Sam Watched Rosie's Kids

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

To support women working on the homefront in World War II, the U.S. government funded a temporary nationwide child care program.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Applying for Unemployment Benefits online

Labor Market Concerns? Neither Here nor There

Macro Minute

September 24, 2024

A softening in the labor market has sparked recession concerns, but comparing the recent uptick in the claims to historical trends seems to indicate the labor market may instead just be normalizing.

Nathan Robino

Blog Post

Aerial shot of Morgantown, West Virginia, on an overcast day in Fall.

Are College Towns Recession Proof?

Regional Matters

September 19, 2024

Although the communities surrounding universities experienced some shielding effects from previous recessions, the unemployment rate actually increased in these areas following the COVID-19 recession.

Adam Scavette and Robert Calvert Jump

Blog Post

Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner passenger plane landing at the airport, under a blue sky with white clouds.

Boeing South Carolina's Economic Impact: Ten Years After Opening

Regional Matters

September 12, 2024

South Carolina's recruitment of a Boeing assembly plant to North Charleston in the late 2000s boosted the state's aerospace sector and Charleston's local labor market over the subsequent decade.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Podcast

Stick figures climbing ladders of different sizes

Not All Career Ladders Are Created Equal

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 11, 2024

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso describe their research on differences in wage growth between workers as they progress in their careers.

Blog Post

Last piece of jigsaw puzzle being put in place. The puzzle has symbols and icons that relate to the labor market and business.

Virginia's Employment Recovery: Now and Then

Regional Matters

September 5, 2024

The pace of hiring has recently slowed in Virginia, but month-over-month growth in the state continues to outpace the national rate, reversing much of the trend of slower growth seen in the post-COVID-19 expansion.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Understanding the Lack of Skill Specialization in Peru

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-29

Peru shows that a brisk pace of job reallocation has the potential to significantly inhibit occupational skill specialization, potentially contributing to human capital and productivity deficits.

Andrea Atencio De Leon, Munseob Lee and Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Are Labor Shortages in Small Cities and Rural Areas Worse Than Urban Ones?

Regional Matters

August 15, 2024

Rural areas were hit hard with labor shortages during COVID-19, more so than their urban counterparts. However, the tides have turned with rural wage growth now exceeding that of urban areas.

Renee Haltom and Jason Kosakow

Article

An accountant preparing tax forms for a client on their laptop while using a calculator.

How Can We Make a Progressive Tax System More Efficient?

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-26

A progressive tax system may reduce the incentive for households to increase their income.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Flexible Work and Women's Participation

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Women disproportionately took on the burden of the heightened need for child care during COVID-19, hitting their labor force participation hard. Hybrid work and work from home seem to have helped many of them return to employment.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Podcast

Big hand moving around figures of people on the planet.

Do Employers Have Too Much Power in Labor Markets?

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 7, 2024

Chen Yeh discusses the differences in how much power companies have in labor markets and how that affects employees and their wages. Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Software developer writing code in his office while using AI tools.

The Productivity Puzzle: AI, Technology Adoption and the Workforce

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-25

Technology improvements may not matter as much as the age and experience of the workforce.

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Blog Post

illustration of lots of people milling about

Visualizing the Breadth of Job Gains: A Follow-Up

Macro Minute

August 6, 2024

With a newly developed index of payroll growth dispersion, the author shows how it differs from the BLS payroll diffusion index and discusses some implications from July's employment report.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Traffic jam on the Capital Beltway in Washington DC on a cloudy overcast day.

Commuting Patterns and Characteristics of Fifth District Counties

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-24

What do commuting patterns look like for Fifth District counties, and what do they tell us about a county's residents?

Santiago Pinto and Sierra Stoney

Article

Raghuram Rajan

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Economist Raghuram Rajan on leading a central bank, creating a digital payment system, and India's future in professional services.

David A. Price

Blog Post

Two factory workers in hard hats and safety vests review the guide for a piece of equipment.

Visualizing the Breadth of Job Gains

Macro Minute

July 16, 2024

With sentiment about the labor market appearing to soften, we explore some ways to visualize the breadth of recent jobs growth across industries.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Small model house sitting and coins sitting on top of paper with charts.

Diving Into Private Fixed Investment

Macro Minute

July 2, 2024

This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Who Is Supplying the Labor for Recent Employment Growth in the Rural Fifth District?

Regional Matters

June 20, 2024

This post explores how changes in total population, out-of-the-labor-force population, and unemployment explain employment growth across the Fifth District's rural counties.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Article

Illustration of a lightbulb with an internal brainstem that says AI and surrounding blocks that represent people.

Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-19

What are early studies suggesting about how AI may impact labor productivity?

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Article

Skill Mismatch, Layoffs, and Bouncing Back

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Being laid off often leads to worse future employment outcomes. A mismatch between the laid-off worker's skills and the local job market can play a significant role in this effect.

Brooke Hansbrough

Blog Post

Group of people in business casual outfits sitting in a waiting room for their job interview.

Employment Change: Are Workers Coming or Going?

Regional Matters

June 14, 2024

Results from the Richmond Fed's May monthly business surveys indicate that for now, firms report employment gains that are driven by increased hiring more than declining separations.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Article

Modern office space with employees working at their computers and collaborating.

Return-to-Office Orders: A Survey Analysis of Employment Impacts

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-16

Negative impacts seem to be more muted than expected, and some firms say RTO increased employment.

Grey Gordon and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Oliko Vardishvili presenting her paper to CORE week participants.

Connecting Women Economists

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

The Richmond Fed's Center for Advancing Women in Economics launched a fellowship program this year as part of its multifaceted approach to raising the visibility of women economists.

Charles Gerena

Article

Hiring manager viewing a resume while they interview a candidate.

How Do College-Educated Immigrants Affect US Firms and Workers?

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-15

Most native U.S. workers seem to benefit from having immigrant coworkers.

Nicolas Morales

Article

Wooden blocks stacked like a staircase with the blocks on the edge decorated with arrows. The block at the top has a target with a push pin in the bullseye.

Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Is There a One-Size-Fits-All Job Ladder?

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-14

Not everyone continues to progress into better-paying jobs.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Article

Labor Supply and COVID-19 Unemployment Insurance

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Following the expansion of unemployment insurance during COVID-19, researchers found that there are different effects for low-wage businesses and high-wage businesses, as well as for different UI policies.

Larissa Chan

Blog Post

Distressed worker buries her face in her hand as she packs her office belongings into a box.

Are Workers Becoming More Anxious?

Macro Minute

May 7, 2024

Anxiety about possible job loss appears to be associated with actual changes in worker behavior, lowering the frequency of job switching in the economy.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Historic style illustration of a restaurant with men in long-tail coats and top hats and women in decorative gowns. Servers are seating and tending to patrons.

Tipping: From Scourge of Democracy to American Ritual

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Over the course of the 20th century, tipping went from rare and reviled to an almost uniquely American custom. We still like to complain about it.

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Tablet and laptop, with people shaking hands

The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery (Revised March 2025)

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-04R

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior.

Parag Mahajan, Nicolas Morales, Kevin Shih, Mingyu Chen and Agostina Brinatti

Podcast

Lots of Indian IT workers sitting at large table

Immigration Policy and the Development of the Tech Sector in the U.S. and India

Speaking of the Economy

April 3, 2024

Richmond Fed economist Nicolas Morales shares his research on immigration policy and how the regulation of the flow of information technology workers from India to the United States during the 1990s benefited both countries' IT sectors.

Article

Two professional women shaking hands while seated at table with laptops in front of them.

Developments in Antitrust Policy Against Labor Market Monopsony

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-11

The effects of monopsony seem to be getting more attention recently.

Chen Yeh

Blog Post

Remotely Interesting? Sensing Tools Shed Light on On-Site Expectations in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

March 26, 2024

Our March business surveys included special questions on return-to-office policies and on-site expectations four years after the pandemic motivated a rapid conversion to remote work for a portion of jobs.

Emily Wavering Corcoran
Senior Manager

Blog Post

Close up of graph on paper showing an unemployment trend line with a faint inflation trend line above.

State Labor Market Update: January 2024 Data Release

Regional Matters

March 11, 2024

This article covers the state-level employment data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for January, written by the Richmond Fed's team of regional economists.

Joseph Mengedoth, Adam Scavette and Laura Dawson Ullrich

Blog Post

Small business owner, wearing an apron, sits at a desk as she adds up the day's sales in a notebook and enters the data into her laptop.

Signals From Small Businesses

Macro Minute

March 5, 2024

Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Close up of cash being spread out with hands.

Is Wage Growth Normalizing? What Fifth District Businesses Are Saying About Wages

Regional Matters

February 28, 2024

The Richmond Fed business survey results suggest that wage growth is slowing, and firms expect a return to pre-COVID-19 levels over the next year.

Jason Kosakow and Zach Edwards

Blog Post

Employees meeting around a table as one employee, who uses a wheelchair, advocates for the importance of inclusion.

Uncertain Outlook for Disabled Employment

Macro Minute

February 27, 2024

Since 2021, there has been a large increase in both the size of the population with disabilities and the disabled labor force participation rate. Expansion of remote work opportunities seems to have contributed to this growth.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Economics in Action

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 21, 2024

Yaa Opoku-Agyeman of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Rachel Lee of Uber Eats talk about their careers as economists and how they have applied their research and analysis skills to address everyday issues.

Blog Post

Line of people raising hands to say pledge while one holds small American Flag.

Investigating the Immigrant Influx

Macro Minute

February 20, 2024

The increasing share of foreign-born immigrant workers is an important influence on today's labor market landscape. The outlook is highly uncertain if this trend will continue.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Woman at standing desk in home office talking on business video call while walking on treadmill.

Labor Productivity Is Popping

Macro Minute

February 13, 2024

Due to an increase in labor productivity, strong wage growth is coexisting with encouraging signs of inflation in recent readings. However, productivity growth has historically shown to be volatile.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Close up of hand holding a pen and filling out unemployment benefits application form.

Did Unemployment Benefits Discourage Returning to Work During COVID-19?

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 7, 2024

Richmond Fed economists Andreas Hornstein and Marios Karabarbounis discuss their research on unemployment insurance (UI), most recently on the disincentive effects of the substantial expansion of UI benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

How Female Labor Supply Shapes Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-04

Several factors include labor market participation, business cycle volatility and responsiveness to the underlying economic environment.

Marios Karabarbounis

News

Bank Initiative Helps Rural Communities Pursue Economic Growth

Jan. 22, 2024

The Richmond Fed's Rural Investment Collaborative will train 20 rural leaders how to create successful proposals for community funding.

Blog Post

Two older workers sitting in front of laptop while looking at documents.

How Older Workers Got Their Groove Back

Macro Minute

January 9, 2024

Labor force participation among older workers is on the rise. Concerns about the sustainability of their finances may explain this happening.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Office with many IT workers sitting in front of computers.

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

The Great Job Reshuffling

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

If good workers remain hard to find, wages could rise further, pressuring margins and prices in turn. So it's important to understand what's happening in the labor market, and where it may go from here.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

diagonally split image of an unemployment chart and the words "Job Vacancy" circled

Assessing Unemployment Insurance

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

The authors aimed to see whether the benefits of unemployment insurance programs outweigh the incentive to look for a new job when sources of wealth inequality are incorporated.

Brennan Merone

Article

Why Is Returning to the Office Contentious?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

CEOs have recently been more insistent on return to office, which is a mixed bag of results. Deal making and spreading the rewards between employers and workers could make the shift less controversial.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Tiles marked with person icons sorted into groups that are connected with lines.

Sorting in the Labor Market

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-41

Do higher-ability workers naturally find their way to higher-productivity firms?

Katarína Borovičková

Podcast

Two workers sitting at a table with laptops in front of them for virtual meeting with an at home worker on a larger screen hanging on the wall.

What We Have Learned About Remote Work

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 13, 2023

Claudia Macaluso discusses the surge in workers doing their jobs at home during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing effects of the remote work option on labor markets and the economy as a whole. Macaluso is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

How Are Women Represented in Economic Research at the Fed?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-40

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics discusses how representation can improve.

Marina Azzimonti, Arantxa Jarque and Acacia Wyckoff

Webinar

Economics in the Hot Seat

Nov. 30, 2023

Upcoming Event: What do Uber and the Federal Reserve have in common? They both hire economists! Did you know that some of your favorite brands also hire economists? But what do economists actually do? Registration required.

Blog Post

Woman wearing a hardhat smiling and shaking hands with worker in orange vest.

What Do Softened Business Expectations Mean for Hiring?

Regional Matters

November 28, 2023

Firms are planning to maintain or increase their workforce in 2024, despite persistent hiring challenges and a recent downturn in short-run expectations. But how would this change if demand decreased unexpectedly?

Zach Edwards

Article

Man with safety vest examining his tablet inside of a factory.

How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-36

Jobs held by temporary workers aren't included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows.

Claudia Macaluso

Working Paper

Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits (Revised December 2024)

Working Paper Series

November 2023, No. 23-11R

This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits.

Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé and Lien Ta

Blog Post

Is the Goods-to-Services Rotation Over?

Macro Minute

November 7, 2023

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Staff wanted sign written in chalk outside of restaurant.

A Penny for Your Thoughts? How Survey Comments Help Us Understand Our Region’s Labor Market

Regional Matters

October 19, 2023

We regularly report the quantitative results from the Richmond Fed business surveys, but participants' comments also provide useful context for changes in local business conditions.

Jason Kosakow, Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Forum

woman holding a microphone in front of a group of people

Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy

Oct. 18, 2023

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will lead a discussion about the lingering impact of the pandemic on the economy and the workforce. The general public is invited to listen in, via livestream, as Barkin, Bowman and several special guests explore the challenges and opportunities that exist as the region served by the Richmond Fed continues the transition to a new normal.

Podcast

Empty classroom with face mask hanging on chair

Learning Losses During the Pandemic

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 11, 2023

Santiago Pinto provides evidence of learning losses among K-12 students during the COVID-19 pandemic. He also discusses the causes, distribution and consequences of these losses. Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Parsing the Slow Post-Pandemic Labor Market Recovery of Maryland’s Capital Suburbs

Regional Matters

October 5, 2023

In this article, we look at labor market activity within the Capital Beltway over the past three years to assess what might be contributing to the slower growth north of the Potomac River.

Adam Scavette and Keith Waters

Speech

Warehouse supervisor walking and talking with senior manager

The New Job Hierarchy

Sept. 28, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

State of the Unions

Macro Minute

September 26, 2023

In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Paper dolls holding hands in a circle, cupped by a pair of human hands

The Importance of Social Capital

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 20, 2023

Stephanie Norris explains the concept of social capital, its value in the economic development of communities, and the challenges of measuring it. Norris is a senior research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

woman shaking hands with people in a meeting

Investing in Women’s Careers

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Many women face the balancing act of managing a successful professional life with the societal expectations that come with being a mother. What impact might this have on a woman's career?

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Bringing Talent to Small Towns

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Now that the pandemic has tightened the labor market further, smaller communities are going to have to figure out how to put their best foot forward.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

A Look at the Impact of the Work-From-Home Revolution

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-28

Workers seem to be in favor, but urban cores may hurt as a result.

Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

The State of Hiring in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

August 22, 2023

Although our surveys show signs that the labor market may be cooling, many Fifth District firms continue to report difficulty finding workers with the right skill sets.

Zach Edwards

Podcast

Figures of man and woman standing on stacks of coins, with the man higher than the woman

The Impact of Marriage on How Much Men Work

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 16, 2023

John Bailey Jones discusses his recent research on the relationship between marital status and the labor force participation of men. Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Circle of Life: What Is the Birth-Death Adjustment?

Macro Minute

August 15, 2023

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

A Mother’s Work Is Never Done?

Macro Minute

August 8, 2023

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

Erin Henry and John O'Trakoun

Article

A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-25

Severe weather shocks can have long-lasting impacts on the macroeconomy.

Toan Phan

Conference

Economist engaging a speaker at CORE Week

CORE Week, featuring the Climate Economics Conference

July 31 – Aug. 4, 2023

Blog Post

Close up of one hundred dollar note with blue market trend lines over top.

Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?

Regional Matters

July 28, 2023

After two years of tightness, many labor market measures have made notable progress toward reaching more normal levels. But we might still have some time before we see the same for wage growth.

Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

How Much Do Multinational Companies in the U.S. Depend on Immigrant Workers?

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-21

Restrictions on immigration could cause production to shift away from the U.S. to other countries.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Directional signs pointing in various directions

Where are the Region's Economies Heading?

Speaking of the Economy

June 28, 2023

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matt Martin share what their business contacts have told them about regional economic conditions in the Fifth District.

Blog Post

Business team trader looking on tablet and laptop with graphs analysis in office room, diagrams on screen.

The Fifth District Labor Market: Normalization or the Beginning of a Slowdown?

Regional Matters

June 27, 2023

The labor market has surprised economists and forecasters with its resilience. Data from our business surveys indicate that the Fifth District labor market may be cooling.

Zach Edwards and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Conference

CORE Week branded image of a presenter talking about his paper to economists

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

Article

Hugo Hopenhayn gives a lecture at Core Week in May 2023

Goodfriend Memorial Lecture: Knowledge Creation and Diffusion

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-18

The inaugural Marvin Goodfriend lecture, given by Hugo Hopenhayn, discussed how intellectual property rights must trade off incentives for innovation and knowledge diffusion.

Hugo Hopenhayn

Article

Learning From Our District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Last year, the Richmond Fed had over 1,700 community engagements — meetings with bankers, business and community leaders, workers, and public officials. These conversations help us see the region's economy more clearly.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Group of economists standing in circle and talking.

Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-17

Researchers covered topics including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.

John Mullin and Matthew Wells

Article

a couple reviews their finances at a laptop

Marriage Is Extra Work

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Blandin, Jones, and Yang sought to answer whether men decide to spend more hours working after becoming married, or whether these men are already working more hours before they get married.

Erin Henry

Article

People interconnected in an illustration

Measuring Social Capital Across the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Social capital — the strength of social networks within communities — can be important to economic mobility. We look at how this measure varies for communities across our district.

Stephanie Norris and Adam Scavette

Podcast

Person looking through window at opportunities

Creative Destruction: The Birth and Death of Firms

Speaking of the Economy

May 17, 2023

Hugo Hopenhayn discusses his research on the factors that affect the entry and exit of firms in a market, as well as the reallocation of labor and other resources that results from this "creative destruction." Hopenhayn is a professor of economics at UCLA and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

a small piggy bank and a big piggy bank balanced on a seesaw

Unemployment Insurance when the Wealth Distribution Matters

Working Paper Series

May 2023, No. 23-08

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of unemployment insurance in general equilibrium using a life-cycle model.

Facundo Piguillem, Hernán Ruffo and Nicholas Trachter

Article

How Much Do Labor Costs Affect Prices in Recessions and in Expansions?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-14

Wage-price pass throughs may help explain why core goods inflation has risen so much faster in the current expansion than in previous ones.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Looking at a computer screen about applying for Unemployment Benefits

Unemployment Changes as Recession Indicators

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-13

Changes in unemployment appear to be strong recession predictors, especially when combined with lagged term spreads.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Blog Post

Bend It Like Beveridge

Macro Minute

April 18, 2023

Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Aerial view of houses lining streets in Roanoke, Virginia

Bringing Talent to Small Towns

April 12, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how small towns in the Fifth District are putting their best foot forward to attract talent.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Business Expectations for 2023

Speaking of the Economy

April 12, 2023

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Waddell discuss the expectations of regional and national business leaders about the economy, based on responses to the CFO Survey and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's regional business surveys during the first quarter of 2023.

Article

man sitting in front of laptop with his resume in hand

Why Do Long-Term Unemployed Workers Struggle to Find New Jobs?

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-10

Two forces may be working against the long-term unemployed in finding new jobs.

Katarína Borovičková

Blog Post

The Landscape of Labor in Leisure and Hospitality

Macro Minute

March 28, 2023

Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

A Labor Drought?

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

Unemployment has dropped and is now basically at pre-pandemic levels. Yet labor force participation has been slow to return.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Trade-offs in Fulfilling the Fed’s Dual Mandate

Economic Brief

March 2023, No. 23-08

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Are Supersized Wage Increases Over?

Macro Minute

February 14, 2023

Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.

Julian Kikuchi and John O'Trakoun

Podcast

The Pandemic-Era Teacher Shortage

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 1, 2023

Sierra Latham and Sarah Gunn discuss the current shortage of teachers nationally and in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, how supply-demand forces have contributed to this labor market gap, and what is happening in response. Latham is a senior research analyst and Gunn is director of economic education at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Marriage and Work among Prime-Age Men (Revised December 2025)

Working Paper Series

January 2023, No. 23-02R

Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. This Working Paper delves into possible explanations for these results.

Adam Blandin, John Bailey Jones and Fang Yang

Article

Secular Trends in Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-02

Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.

Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Podcast

Navigating Tight Labor Markets

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 4, 2023

Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell discuss recent challenges in finding and retaining workers, and how businesses have changed their recruitment tactics, adjusted wages, and made other changes in response to these challenges. Macaluso is an economist and Waddell is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Man with pen in hand looks over documents with a surgical mask laying on the desk

How are CDFIs Managing Pandemic-Related Disruptions?

Regional Matters

December 22, 2022

Results from a recent national Fed survey show that community development financial institutions (CDFIs) and the communities they serve are facing less severe disruptions than last year. Still, staffing and other challenges are preventing CDFIs from fully meeting growing demand for their products and services.

Hailey Phelps

Article

Job Mobility During and After the Pandemic

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

In the past few years, job changing in the United States — workers leaving their current employers for new ones — seems to have been on the rise. This development, often called the "Great Resignation," has attracted much attention, but the reasons behind it are far from clear.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Article

Steven Davis

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

University of Chicago economist on remote work, changes in recruiting, and business startups after the pandemic.

David A. Price

Podcast

Manufacturing and service sector surveys

What Surveys Say About the Regional and National Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 7, 2022

Jason Kosakow and Santiago Pinto describe how survey data is gathered and used to assess regional and national economic conditions. Kosakow is survey director and Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

Is a Labor Challenge Coming?

Dec. 2, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores whether labor will continue to be in short supply, and what that could mean for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

People standing in a room discussing at Core Week

Race and Economic Outcomes: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2022, No. 22-48

Monetary policy, marriage, college admissions, and discrimination and socioeconomic outcomes were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Fifth District Businesses Weigh in on Hiring and Wages

Regional Matters

December 01, 2022

While more than a third of businesses expect to expand their workforce in the coming year, some firms have started to reduce headcount by not replacing outgoing workers. Most businesses would take that approach, or keep employment steady, if demand softened in the near future.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Blog Post

Are Services Serving Up a Wage-Price Spiral?

Macro Minute

November 15, 2022

How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?

John O'Trakoun and Brennan Merone

Article

When Should Employees Be Suspended Instead of Fired?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-45

For some underperforming employees, employers might prefer using suspension rather than outright termination.

Borys Grochulski

Article

How Did Pandemic UI Benefits Affect Employment Recovery in Local Industry Markets?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-44

Pandemic-era unemployment insurance affected recoveries of low-wage job markets and high-wage job markets differently.

Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann and Etienne Lalé

Blog Post

How the CHIPS and Science Act Will Target Economic Development in Distressed Labor Markets

Regional Matters

October 13, 2022

The Recompete Pilot Program intends to boost economic competitiveness in selected underperforming areas by dispersing grants to fund proposed infrastructure, workforce, and business development activities.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Blog Post

How to Get the (High-Skilled) Workers?

Regional Matters

October 6, 2022

Over the past year, firms have had difficulty finding workers. Recent evidence from Fifth District business surveys indicates the difficulty is shifting from lower- to higher-skilled hires.

Nicholas Haltom and Jacob Walker

Blog Post

Lagging Labor Force Participation in Maryland and Virginia

Regional Matters

September 23, 2022

Labor force participation in Maryland and Virginia is down considerably compared to 2019, but different age and gender groups have fallen out of the labor force in the two states.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Changing Recruiting Practices and Methods in the Tight Labor Market

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-36

Data suggest that labor market tightness has meant an increased number of open jobs per unemployed worker and heightened employer recruiting effort per vacancy.

Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Resolving the Gap in Teacher Supply

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

States and school districts are using a variety of policies — including financial incentives — to try to combat a teacher shortage.

Sarah Gunn and Sierra Stoney

Article

The Non-Employment Index

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

A brief review of the development of the Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index, an alternative to the standard unemployment rate that includes all non-employed individuals and accounts for persistent differences in their labor market attachment.

John Mullin

Speech

The Staffing Challenge in Schools and Caregiving

Aug. 24, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores some of the crucial segments lagging behind in the jobs recovery.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

What’s Happening in Our Region’s Economy? A Focus on Maryland, D.C. and West Virginia

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 24, 2022

Andy Bauer reviews economic conditions in Maryland, the District of Columbia and West Virginia, based on recent conversations with local contacts and analysis of the data. Bauer is a vice president and regional executive at the Richmond Fed, with responsibility for business and community engagement in these parts of the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

Blog Post

Real-Time Signs of Cooling Labor Demand

Macro Minute

August 9, 2022

The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.

Brennan Merone and John O'Trakoun

Article

hardcopy review of documents with binders of salaries and payroll nearby

Measuring Employers’ Market Power

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

How competitive is the U.S. labor market? Answering this question quantitatively is helpful for understanding how wages are affected by labor market power, and thus for understanding how workers will be affected by labor policy choices.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Blog Post

Searching for Soft Spots in Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

August 2, 2022

While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Second-Chance Hiring: Fifth District Efforts to Improve Post-Incarceration Outcomes

Regional Matters

July 29, 2022

In a world where employers are struggling to find workers, facilitating meaningful work and competitive pay for previously incarcerated individuals could improve economic outcomes both for the individuals and their communities.

Laura Dawson Ullrich
Director, Community College Initiative

Article

The Impacts of Immigration: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-27

How does immigration policy impact economic growth? Do firms that hire more skilled immigrants perform better? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Article

What are the benefits and drawbacks of using diffusion indexes?

Why Use a Diffusion Index?

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-22

Diffusion indexes can help summarize survey responses, but they have some limitations.

Santiago Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

A man in an apron holds a "Hiring" sign in a shop window

When Will Labor Markets Return to "Normal?"

Speaking of the Economy

June 22, 2022

Andreas Hornstein and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on changes in the labor market since the pandemic. Hornstein and Lubik are senior advisors at the Richmond Fed.

Article

Scene with church peeking out of a large amount of trees

Employment Barriers in the Rural Fifth District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

Numerous factors — including population growth, education, housing, transportation, child care, health, and broadband availability — are shaping the differences in employment outcomes between rural and urban communities.

Stephanie Norris, Jessie Romero, Sierra Stoney and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Why Don’t More Young People Buy Stocks?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

Standard life-cycle models of portfolio choice suggest that individuals should participate in the stock market throughout their lives. Yet the data show that this is not typically the case early in life.

Speech

Team planning in a conference room with a colleague on a hybrid video call

Rethinking the Office

May 26, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how firms can optimize the hybrid work environment.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Can Immigration Help Boost Rural Economies in the Fifth District and Beyond?

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-18

When immigration is restricted in rural areas, native workers don't seem to fill the jobs left empty.

Nicolas Morales

Blog Post

Really Yearning for Real Earnings

Macro Minute

May 17, 2022

Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

The Pandemic, Child Care and Women’s Labor Force Participation

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-16

Unlike in other recessions, women's labor force participation was impacted more than men's. What impact did child care have?

Kartik B. Athreya and Sierra Stoney

Article

Industrial Development and Convergence

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

In this essay, we describe Marvin Goodfriend's Industrial Development model and ponder its lessons for contemporary policy discussions.

Sergio T. Rebelo and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Article

Government Programs and Their Effects on Welfare and Employment: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-13

How did unemployment insurance expansion affect recovery from the pandemic-induced recession? What are the effects of federal minimum wage hikes? A recent research conference addressed these questions and more.

John Mullin

Article

The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-12

The unemployment rate is close to pre-pandemic lows, and job openings are at record highs. Yet, participation and employment rates are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Blog Post

How to Get the Workers?

Regional Matters

March 31, 2022

In our March business survey, we found that firms continue to struggle finding workers across skill levels, particularly in the low- to mid-skill range.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Brush Up Those Resumes, Dust Off That Disco Ball?

Macro Minute

March 29, 2022

While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

The Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from England’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund

Working Paper Series

March 2022, No. 22-02

In this paper, we examine the labor market effects of the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, which targeted eighty-eight of the most deprived areas in England during the early 2000s as part of the Labour Government's National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal.

Robert Calvert Jump and Adam Scavette

Blog Post

The Updated Employment Picture

Regional Matters

March 24, 2022

Revised historical monthly employment and unemployment data provide new clarity on the track of labor market recovery in Fifth District states.

Nicholas Haltom and Jacob Walker

Podcast

A woman talks to her colleagues across the internet

Human Capital Decisions and the Future of Work

Speaking of the Economy

March 9, 2022

Renee Haltom, vice president and regional executive, reflects on key insights from the District Dialogues event held Feb. 8, 2022. The discussion focused on changes in the nature of work, the workforce and the skills needed, and how workers and employers are responding.

Speech

Breaking Down the Labor Shortage

March 3, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how the labor shortage story differs across key segments of the economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Pinelopi Goldberg

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

Yale University economist on developing countries, measuring economies by satellite, and the learning crisis.

David A. Price

Article

The Rural Nursing Shortage

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

The pandemic has worsened a long-standing national shortage of nurses. Rural communities face the greatest challenges.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

a worker outside a large pile of shipping containers

Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?

Regional Matters

February 25, 2022

Fifth District firms report that two years into the pandemic, they still cannot provide enough goods and services to completely meet customer demand.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Are Firms Using Remote Work to Recruit and Retain Workers?

Economic Brief

February 2022, No. 22-07

Remote work options seem to go hand in hand with greater geographic reach in recruitment efforts for some firms.

Steven J Davis, Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

Labor Market Decisions Over the Life Cycle

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 23, 2022

For the 50th episode of the podcast, hosts Jessie Romero, Charles Gerena and Tim Sablik use previous episodes to explore how labor markets are shaped by the economic choices we make throughout our lifetimes, from childhood to adulthood to old age.

Blog Post

Hiring Problems Persist

Macro Minute

February 22, 2022

Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Calling in Sick to Work

Macro Minute

February 8, 2022

There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.

Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun

Essay

A business person reviewing charts in a notebook and tablet

The Economy: What We’ve Learned

Jan. 13, 2022

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Descriptive image of a manufacturing plant

Measuring Labor Market Power in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Economic Brief

January 2022, No. 22-01

Workers are not fully compensated for their marginal contributions to their employers' revenues, and employers' market power has been increasing since the early 2000s.

Chen Yeh

Podcast

The Flow of Human Capital

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 12, 2022

Mark Bils of the University of Rochester and Niklas Engbom of New York University discuss their research on how easily labor is substituted or shifted between jobs and its implications for policies to bolster human capital.

Blog Post

Strong Start for Job Openings in 2022

Macro Minute

January 11, 2022

While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Rising Wages and Increased Hiring Two Years Into the COVID-19 Pandemic

Regional Matters

January 6, 2022

Fifth District firms increase employment and raise wages in response to a changing economy.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Blog Post

COVID’s Long Shadow on the Labor Market

Macro Minute

December 21, 2021

Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments (Revised April 2025)

Working Paper Series

December 2021, No. 21-16R

The authors document significant heterogeneity in immigrant share across employers in Germany, with large firms spending a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small firms.

Agostina Brinatti and Nicolas Morales

Article

Paycheck Protection and the Pandemic

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

The Paycheck Protection Program was intended to help business owners sustain their employees' wages during the pandemic.

Article

Illustration of lightbulb with different graphics drawn inside to indicate ideas

A Pandemic-Era Startup Boom

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

A surge of interest in starting new businesses could reverse a long-running drought.

Tim Sablik

Article

Where Did the Workers Go?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

For many observers, the most exceptional aspect of the COVID-19 economic recovery has been the unprecedented number of unfilled jobs openings.

Kartik B. Athreya

Podcast

A Look Back at 2021

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 8, 2021

Andy Bauer, Matt Martin and Renee Haltom reflect on the past year, sharing what they have learned from their contacts about the national and regional economies that they follow.

Article

descriptive image of a cashier demonstrating employment recovery from the pandemic

Anatomy of a Pandemic Recovery Across Sectors and Regions

Economic Brief

December 2021, No. 21-40

The rebound in employment from pandemic lows varied considerably across regions and sectors.

Andrew Foerster and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Blog Post

Three professionals sit across a table from an interviewee.

How Much for Your Time? Fifth District Firms Struggle to Find Workers

Regional Matters

December 2, 2021

In a tight labor market, Fifth District firms struggle to attract qualified workers.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Article

COVID Transfers Dampening Employment Growth, but Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Economic Brief

November 2021, No. 21-39

Government transfers may allow households to pull back from work to take care of loved ones or engage in other valued activities.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Regional Job Openings and Quits Rates Jolt to New Highs

Regional Matters

November 18, 2021

The Bureau of Labor Statistics started releasing state-level data from the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), giving a unique perspective on labor demand around our District.

Joseph Mengedoth and Jacob Walker

Article

The Role of Demographics and Incarceration in Mortality Risk

Economic Brief

November 2021, No. 21-37

Less-educated White men who are incarcerated at least once have a higher survival probability than those who are never incarcerated.

Grey Gordon and Urvi Neelakantan

Blog Post

More on Mismatch

Macro Minute

November 9, 2021

In the post-COVID-19 labor market, there is still an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, expressed as the Beveridge curve. But it takes a lot more openings to get to the same level of unemployment. This shift suggests a high degree of labor market mismatch.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Revisiting the Beveridge Curve: Why Has It Shifted so Dramatically?

Economic Brief

October 2021, No. 21-36

The Beveridge curve — which measures the inverse relationship between the unemployment and vacancy rates — has shifted significantly outward and is much steeper than in pre-COVID times.

Thomas A. Lubik

Speech

Mother helping her daughters with remote school work

What’s Sidelining Women?

Oct. 21, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses how we can connect more women with employment.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

What Can Firm-Level Data Show about Immigration's Impact on Labor Markets?

Economic Brief

October 2021, No. 21-35

Increasing labor competition may drive wages down, but natives and immigrants specializing in working for different firms helps offset this effect.

Nicolas Morales and Agostina Brinatti

Speech

Close-up of two pairs of feet on opposite sides of a line in the road

What’s Sidelining Workers?

Oct. 19, 2021

President Tom Barkin talks about who is on the sidelines of the labor market, what’s keeping them there, and how we can remove barriers in their way.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Have Wages Kept Up with Inflation?

Macro Minute

October 19, 2021

Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Two women working at a cash register in a cafe

The Pandemic’s Toll on Minority Women in the Labor Force

Regional Matters

September 24, 2021

This post explores lagged recovery in labor force participation for Black and Hispanic women that started at the onset of the COVID-19 recession.

Katie Daniluk and Sierra Stoney

Speech

woman with box of belongings leaving a job

Are More Quits on the Horizon?

Sept. 10, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses forces that could keep quits elevated in the months to come and what that could mean for employers and the economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Working or the Weekend?

Macro Minute

September 7, 2021

There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Will Employers Cast a Wider Net?

Sept. 2, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses how employers might change their hiring practices to bring more people into the labor market as the recovery continues.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Demand for Goods Grows: Will Manufacturers Be Able to Meet It?

Regional Matters

September 2, 2021

Manufacturers have recently seen an increase in orders, but disruptions in the supply chain have made meeting demand a challenge.

Roisin McCord and Alexander Nikolov

Article

Image of woman looking at resume while in a virtual interview.

How Do Employers Recruit New Workers?

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-28

Recent Richmond Fed surveys shed light on how employers attempt to fill jobs.

Steven J Davis, Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

A person online applying for unemployment compensation

Unemployment Insurance: Economic Lessons from the Last Two Recessions

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-26

Unemployment insurance seems to help smooth consumer spending after a job loss, but there's disagreement on how much it discourages people from finding new jobs.

Marios Karabarbounis

Podcast

Are Employers Paying Enough?

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 11, 2021

Renee Haltom and John O'Trakoun explore recent wage inflation within the context of the short-term challenges of hiring workers in certain industries as well as longer term trends in income growth.

Blog Post

The Jobs Numbers Don't Add Up?

Macro Minute

August 10, 2021

The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

What Difference Does a Minimum Wage Make?

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

Many states, including some in the Fifth District, have enacted legislation in the last year to increase the minimum wage, and those increases will have both direct and indirect effects on workers, households, and businesses in the District.

Stephanie Norris and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Ayşegül Şahin

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

University of Texas at Austin economist on wage growth, labor's share of income, and the gender unemployment gap

David A. Price

Article

Do Employees Expect More Now?

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

The reservation wage increased 26 percent between 2020 and 2021 for those making less than $60,000. The impact of the pandemic experience and expectation shifts could be contributing.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

Wages Are Rising: How Far Will They Go?

Regional Matters

August 5, 2021

Surveyed Fifth District firms are raising wages at an above normal pace as they struggle to fill open positions.

Roisin McCord

Blog Post

Workers for the Right Wage

Macro Minute

August 3, 2021

Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

How Much Women Work: Taxes and Social Security Matter

Speaking of the Economy

July 21, 2021

Mariacristina De Nardi of the University of Minnesota discusses her research on the effects of tax policy and Social Security benefits on women's labor supply.

Article

Eldernomics: A Richmond Fed Conference

Economic Brief

July 2021, No. 21-23

A recent Richmond Fed conference covered housing, Social Security claiming, savings and labor supply related to older households.

John Bailey Jones and David A. Price

Speech

Great Expectations: Do Employees Want More Now?

July 13, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses the factors keeping workers out of the labor force—and how employers are responding.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Incarceration, Earnings, and Race

Working Paper Series

July 2021, No. 21-11

We study the implications of incarceration for the earnings and employment of different groups, characterized by their race, gender, and education.

Grey Gordon, John Bailey Jones, Urvi Neelakantan and Kartik B. Athreya

Speech

coins and a chart of trendlines in front of a wall calendar

What Decade Are We In?

July 6, 2021

President Tom Barkin shares his perspective on recent economic data and the outlook for inflation.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Understanding Disparities in Hispanic Employment

June 30, 2021

President Tom Barkin spoke to a joint meeting of Hispanic Chambers of Commerce about the challenges and opportunities facing Hispanic workers.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Comprendiendo las disparidades en el empleo hispano

June 30, 2021

El presidente Tom Barkin habló en una reunión conjunta de Cámaras Hispanas de Comercio sobre los desafíos y oportunidades que enfrentan los trabajadores hispanos.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

The Role of Immigration in Labor Markets

Speaking of the Economy

June 21, 2021

Nicolas Morales discusses the interplay between immigrants and native-born workers in labor markets and how immigration can contribute to U.S. productivity.

Podcast

Getting People Back to Work in West Virginia

Speaking of the Economy

June 11, 2021

Andy Bauer discusses West Virginia's progress in recovering from the economic downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

Was There a Better Way to Contain COVID-19?

Economic Brief

June 2021, No. 21-18

Targeted interventions toward COVID-19, rather than universal stay-at-home orders, might have resulted in less economic damage and fewer deaths, according to one researcher.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Speech

A Unique Wage Environment

June 2, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses the factors influencing wage growth in the wake of the pandemic.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Evolving Employment Story

May 26, 2021

What explains diverging employment outcomes for college graduates and older workers? Read more in President Tom Barkin’s latest essay.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

person receiving a vaccination shot from a health care provider

Who Should Get Vaccines First?

Economic Brief

May 2021, No. 21-16

When rolling out vaccines to combat a pandemic, focusing first on those with intermediate vulnerability provides the greatest returns to society.

Joshua Weiss and Nikhil Vellodi

Article

woman advising another woman who is holding a baby

The Shortcomings of a Work-Biased Welfare System

Economic Brief

May 2021, No. 21-15

Recent legislation has again highlighted the U.S. welfare system. This EB summarizes the welfare system and a "work bias" embedded in many U.S. welfare programs.

Claudia Macaluso

Podcast

Beyond Jail: The Economic Consequences of Incarceration

Speaking of the Economy

May 12, 2021

Millions of Americans face diminished earnings and employment prospects years after they have spent time in prison. Grey Gordon and Urvi Neelakantan share their insights.

Article

a man online attending a virtual conference

Gender Diversity, Vaccine Allocation, Immigration and More: A Recap of the Spring Research Workshop

Economic Brief

May 2021, No. 21-14

Does gender diversity improve team performance? How should vaccines be allocated to combat a pandemic? How do employers affect how immigration impacts native workers? These were among the questions discussed by researchers during a recent virtual research workshop.

Tim Sablik

Article

Male Labor Force Participation: Patterns and Trends

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

Over the past 50 years, male labor force participation in the U.S. has fallen over 10 percentage points. What are the factors behind this decline?

Laura Dawson Ullrich
Director, Community College Initiative

Article

On Remote Work, Markets Will Decide

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

How much reshuffling of businesses and residents will we see among cities, suburbs, and rural areas? The answer will have important implications for local economies.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Working Paper

Big Push in Distorted Economies

Working Paper Series

March 2021, No. 21-07

Many countries have industrialized and grown rapidly by adopting modern technologies. Why don't poor countries adopt more productive technologies? Is there a role for policies that coordinate technology adoption?

Francisco Buera, Hugo Hopenhayn, Yongseok Shin and Nicholas Trachter

Podcast

Diversity in Economics and Central Banking

Speaking of the Economy

March 25, 2021

Senior policy economist Arantxa Jarque discusses the importance of having diverse voices represented at the Federal Reserve and in the economics profession in general.

Speech

Investing to Address Disparities

March 23, 2021

President Tom Barkin spoke about investments to help address long-term disparities exposed by COVID-19.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Anticipating COVID Scarring

March 21, 2021

President Tom Barkin spoke about the potential for COVID-19 to leave long-lasting scars on the economy—and how policy can help.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

College-Educated Immigrants Bolster U.S. Productivity

Economic Brief

March 2021, No. 21-08

This brief discusses the main contributions that college-educated immigrants make to U.S. productivity growth, such as providing scarce skills that supplement and complement skills of native workers, contributing disproportionately to innovation and promoting job creation in the United States by foreign-based multinational corporations.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

The U.S. Welfare System: Does it Do the Job?

Speaking of the Economy

March 19, 2021

Claudia Macaluso looks at the history of the United States' welfare system and its effectiveness in combating poverty during recessions and the recent pandemic.

Podcast

Tracking the Economy in Real Time

Speaking of the Economy

March 11, 2021

Marios Karabarbounis, Nicholas Trachter, and Adam Blandin discuss using high-frequency datasets to track the economy's health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

High Labor Market Churn During the 2020 Recession

Economic Brief

February 2021, No. 21-06

High labor market churn in the COVID-19 recession may exacerbate barriers to sustained wage growth for workers in high-turnover service sector jobs.

Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Gauging Unemployment Rates When Workers Are on the Sidelines

Regional Matters

February 26, 2021

Labor force participation took a big hit from the pandemic. How then should we interpret states' reported unemployment rates?

Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Speech

To Invest in Infrastructure, Invest in People

Feb. 24, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses the importance of training the next generation of infrastructure workers.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

The K-Shaped Recovery in Maryland

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 19, 2021

Andy Bauer provides an update on economic conditions in Maryland as the state recovers from the severe downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Blog Post

Unemployment Benefits Under the New Stimulus Package

Regional Matters

February 1, 2021

The most recent stimulus bill extends many 2020 changes to the unemployment insurance program but reduces the supplement to weekly benefits.

Surekha Carpenter, Sam Louis Taylor and Laura Dawson Ullrich

Speech

Man working from home with his faithful dog at his side

The Future “Hybrid” Office

Feb. 1, 2021

President Tom Barkin talks about the pandemic’s lasting influence on office life.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Looking Back at 2020 in the Fifth District

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 29, 2021

Ann Macheras discusses the state of the economy in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina and South Carolina.

Podcast

The Benefits Cliff: Keeping Working Families From Falling Off the Edge

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 13, 2021

Tiffany Hollin-Wright and Erika Bell explain "benefits cliffs" ― when workers receiving public assistance earn a raise and then are disqualified from receiving government help.

Blog Post

2020 Special Survey of Wages and Hiring

Regional Matters

December 18, 2020

Firms report how the coronavirus is influencing their employment levels, hiring plans, and wages in our annual survey.

Surekha Carpenter

Podcast

Why Economists Care about Climate Change

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 18, 2020

Toan Phan talks about his research on the effects of climate change on economic growth and discusses other work on this important topic.

Blog Post

Man before a slew of monitors reviewing data

Understanding the Fifth District Labor Market through High-Frequency Data

Regional Matters

November 13, 2020

Job postings, employment by income level, and business formation data tells the story of labor market activity during the economic downturn caused by COVID-19.

Jacob Crouse

Podcast

A Look at the Virginia Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 21, 2020

Renee Haltom shares what she has been hearing about Virginia's economy, especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

Learning About the Labor Market from High-Frequency Data

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

Traditional employment data are often lagged, so during the COVID-19 pandemic, economists and policymakers shifted to high-frequency data that may better capture rapidly changing conditions.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Don't Graduate into a Recession

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

Much of the previous economic research on the aftermath of recessions has focused on their short-term effects on earnings and jobs. New research suggests that with longer-term consequences, workers' earnings, health and family outcomes may be affected.

Emily Green

Article

Joshua Gans

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

University of Toronto economist on managing pandemics, allocating vaccines, and low-cost prediction with artificial intelligence.

David A. Price

Speech

A woman discussing something with a male co-worker on his computer screen

Enabling Women to Work

Sept. 14, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin spoke about workforce barriers at a virtual summit hosted by West Virginia Women Moving Forward.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Effect of Lockdown Measures on Unemployment

Special Reports

September 4, 2020

Do the timing and length of lockdowns explain state-level differences in unemployment?

Marios Karabarbounis, Reiko Laski, James Lee and Nicholas Trachter

Speech

What Happens to Young Workers?

Aug. 24, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discusses the loss of service-industry jobs and the effects on younger workers.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Interpreting Unemployment Data in the Time of COVID-19

Regional Matters

August 7, 2020

Policy changes and the unique nature of the COVID-19 pandemic may impact the way labor market health is evaluated going forward.

Lucas Moyon and Laura Dawson Ullrich

Working Paper

two seniors reviewing a check from the SSA

Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality

Working Paper Series

July 2020, No. 20-09

John Bailey Jones and Yue Li

Blog Post

Payroll Employment Trends across the Fifth District

Regional Matters

July 9, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented amount of job loss, yet only a few industries have accounted for a significant portion of it. How do these industry-specific trends in the Fifth District compare to the U.S. overall, and is there any relationship between recent job recovery and states’ phased reopening plans?

Lucas Kenley

Blog Post

Observing Recent Trends in Hours Worked by Hourly Employees

Regional Matters

July 1, 2020

The number of hours worked by hourly employees dropped considerably in the United States and the Fifth District in March but showed signs of recovery in May and June. A look at high frequency data shows how hours worked by hourly employees in the food and drink, leisure and entertainment, and retail industries have been impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jacob Crouse

Blog Post

Observing Recent Trends in Job Postings

Regional Matters

June 17, 2020

Job postings dropped considerably in the United States and Fifth District in March and April but showed signs of recovery in May.

Surekha Carpenter and Jacob Crouse

Speech

The Foundation for Long-Term Recovery

June 15, 2020

Read President Tom Barkin’s new essay on how supporting families and workers supports the economy’s long-term recovery.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?

Economic Brief

June 2020, No. 20-07

Researchers and policymakers are wondering whether the economic losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will prove temporary or persistent. Examining the housing crisis of 2006—09 may provide some clues.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Unemployment Benefits and Changes under the CARES Act

Regional Matters

May 22, 2020

As part of the U.S. response to COVID-19, unemployment insurance recipients are receiving increased weekly payments. For many individuals in the Fifth District, these enhanced unemployment benefits are greater than the wages they earned while at work.

Surekha Carpenter and Laura Dawson Ullrich

Article

COVID-19 and Women's (Un)Employment

Special Reports

May 13, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly rearranges the U.S. labor market, women have been disproportionately affected.

Nina Mantilla

Speech

The Path to Full Recovery

May 4, 2020

President Tom Barkin wrote about the potential longer-term impact of COVID-19.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Unemployment Insurance Programs and the Role of the States

Regional Matters

April 14, 2020

In recent weeks, unemployment insurance claims have hit record numbers. But what exactly do unemployment insurance programs cover? And what roles do states play?

Ann Battle Macheras

Blog Post

COVID-19: Unemployment Claims and Unemployment in Virginia

Regional Matters

April 13, 2020

Between mid-March and early April, more than 360,000 Virginians filed for unemployment. What does this mean for employment measures and the state's economy?

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Blog Post

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy

Regional Matters

April 6, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Jacob Crouse

Article

man addresses a group of students at college

Who Values Access to College?

Economic Brief

March 2020, No. 20-03

A quantitative model of college enrollment suggests that the value of college access varies greatly across individuals.

Kartik B. Athreya, Felicia Ionescu, Urvi Neelakantan, Jessie Romero and Ivan Vidangos

Blog Post

Maryland’s Sluggish Payroll Employment Growth

Regional Matters

February 26, 2020

Explore how payroll employment growth in Maryland has differed from the nation since the Great Recession in this Regional Matters article.

Alexander Marre

Article

Janice Eberly

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

Northwestern University economist on firms' investment decisions, intangible capital, and the college premium

Jessie Romero

Blog Post

Update: 2019 Special Survey of Hiring and Wages

Regional Matters

December 13, 2019

A special survey on hiring and wages, conducted in November, showed that a majority of Fifth District firms expect to hire or hold payrolls steady and plan to use wage increases to attract and retain workers over the next twelve months.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Speech

Getting People off the Sidelines: The Ultimate Workforce Development Plan

Nov. 12, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlighted strategies for drawing people back into the workforce at the Danville Pittsylvania Chamber of Commerce Institute for Advanced Learning & Research.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Moving the Needle in Smaller Towns

Oct. 2, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discussed economic differences between small towns and urban areas at the Investing in Rural America conference.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Old bald headed man doing some work on a laptop

Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Economic Brief

September 2019, No. 19-09

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mullin

Speech

Fostering Entrepreneurship

Aug. 28, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discussed how entrepreneurship can boost economic growth at the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019 Annual Meeting and Business Summit.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

No Poaching

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2019

Luna Shen

Article

Switching Occupational Categories

Economic Brief

July 2019, No. 19-07

Aspen Gorry, Devon Gorry, Tim Sablik and Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Challenges to Women’s Labor Force Participation

June 3, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to the Charlotte Economics Club on women's labor force participation, including trends, challenges and solutions.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Reflections of people on a building window

Fifth District Trends in Labor Market Participation

Regional Matters

May 15, 2019

The labor force participation rate varies considerably across Fifth District jurisdictions, from West Virginia's 53.3 percent to the District of Columbia's 70.4 percent. What is driving the differences among jurisdictions?

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Blog Post

Fifth District Payroll Revisions

Regional Matters

April 18, 2019

Recently revised payroll employment data for 2018 showed that fewer jobs were added in the Fifth District than originally reported. The largest downward revisions occurred with data for North Carolina, West Virginia, and Virginia.

Akbar Naqvi

Working Paper

Lots of different people and different jobs

Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Working Paper Series

March 2019, No. 19-08

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Working Paper

illustration of a house split by a downward trending arrow

Local Scars of the U.S. Housing Crisis* (Revised September 2020)

Working Paper Series

March 2019, No. 19-07R

Saroj Bhattarai, Felipe F. Schwartzman and Choongryul Yang

Blog Post

the big words "Now Hiring" circled on a newspaper-like page

Local Unemployment Rates in Virginia: How Low Can They Go?

Regional Matters

February 27, 2019

As of December 2018, unemployment rates declined in every county and independent city in the Commonwealth of Virginia from December 2017. But how do the most recent rates compare with previous lows?

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Speech

Ensuring Longer-Term Growth

Jan. 10, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 10, 2019, in Raleigh to the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce at its 2019 Economic Forecast event.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Growth

Jan. 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 4, 2019, at the Maryland Bankers Association’s First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Fifth District Firms Report on Hiring and Wages

Regional Matters

December 21, 2018

According to a survey conducted in November 2018, many Fifth District businesses plan on increasing employment in the next year and are generally offering higher starting wages for at least some job types.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Help Wanted

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2018

In 2018, the unemployment rate was at historic lows. Were employers having trouble hiring because there weren't enough workers, or because they had the wrong skills?

Jessie Romero

Blog Post

2017 Educational Attainment Data Are Released

Regional Matters

October 30, 2018

Although changes in educational attainment, employment status, and median earnings were inconsistent across Fifth District jurisdictions in 2017, most saw lower unemployment and higher median earnings.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Speech

Crossing the Geographic Divide

Oct. 2, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discussed geographic differences between rural and urban areas, workforce development, and mobility at the Reinventing Our Communities conference.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Closing the Gap

Sept. 28, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivered remarks to a Federal Reserve conference on minorities in banking.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Prescription drugs in the foreground and a man in the background staring at them

The Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2018

The Richmond Fed looks at the economic impact of the opioid crisis in the Fifth District.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Speech

Unlocking Our Potential

Aug. 8, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke to community and business leaders in Roanoke, Virginia, about strategies to boost economic growth.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Caution: Pipeline Construction Ahead

Regional Matters

June 29, 2018

Natural gas production has experienced tremendous growth over the last decade in the U.S. and West Virginia and continues to grow. In West Virginia, six new pipeline projects have been proposed. How will these pipelines service the natural gas market, and how long until they are in service? What has the impact been on job growth and wages?

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

A Conversation With Tom Barkin

May 7, 2018

President Tom Barkin spoke at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. on May 7, 2018.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Payroll Revisions in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

April 20, 2018

Revised employment data show fewer jobs added in the Fifth District than originally reported. By December 2017 (the most recent month revised), total employment was revised lower by 75,300 jobs or 0.5 percent.

Michael Stanley

Blog Post

Through the Looking Glass: South Carolina's Labor Market Recovery

Regional Matters

March 23, 2018

December 2017 marked the 10-year anniversary of the start of the economic downturn which would ultimately evolve into the Great Recession. As bad as the Great Recession was nationally, South Carolina's descent into the trough was steeper. And its recovery has been more impressive, particularly in the Charleston and Upstate regions.

Richard Kaglic

Blog Post

Update: Educational Attainment in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

February 20, 2018

In 2016, every Fifth District jurisdiction, along with the nation, saw an increase in the share of the over-25 population with a bachelor's degree or higher. What else changed since 2015?

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

How Does Family Structure during Childhood Affect College Preparedness and Completion?

Economic Brief

February 2018, No. 18-02

Adam Blandin, Christopher Herrington and Aaron Steelman

Article

Unauthorized Immigration: Evaluating the Effects and Policy Responses

Economic Brief

January 2018, No. 18-01

Santiago Pinto and Tim Sablik

Blog Post

the back of a North Carolina quarter on a dollar bill

Eastern North Carolina Businesses Weigh In On Labor Challenges

Regional Matters

December 15, 2017

The Richmond Fed worked with NCEast Alliance to facilitate a business and industry roundtable meeting that focused on payroll employment growth.

Richard Kaglic

Working Paper

Global Dynamics in a Search and Matching Model of the Labor Market

Working Paper Series

October 2017, No. 17-12

Nika Lazaryan and Thomas A. Lubik

Blog Post

man with clipboard at a manufacturing shop

The Hispanic Population in the Fifth District: Growing and Working

Regional Matters

October 3, 2017

The Fifth District Hispanic population has been exhibiting significant growth, but labor market indicators provide insight on income disparity relative to population overall.

Ann Battle Macheras

Blog Post

What a Shrinking Federal Government Could Mean for the Fifth District

Regional Matters

June 2, 2017

The Fifth District has a disproportionately high share of federal government employment and contract dollars, and could be more heavily affected by reductions than other comparable areas.

Michael Stanley

Article

Why Aren't More Women Working?

Econ Focus

Third/Fourth Quarter 2016

The share of American women in the labor force is slipping even as it rises in the rest of the developed world

Helen Fessenden

Blog Post

Building Momentum: Garrett County, Md., Economy on the Upswing

Regional Matters

March 3, 2017

How has the Garrett County economy progressed since the Great Recession? How has the labor market improved? Has business activity stabilized?

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Article

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?

Economic Brief

March 2017, No. 17-03

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Article

Does Redistribution Increase Output?

Economic Brief

January 2017, No. 17-01

According to conventional wisdom, wealth redistribution boosts output by increasing aggregate consumption. However, while redistributive policies can have a short-run stimulative effect on consumption, their effect on output depends, potentially quite importantly, on the nature of household labor supply.

Kartik B. Athreya, Andrew Owens, Jessie Romero and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Updated Survey on Hiring and Wages

Regional Matters

December 21, 2016

Earlier this year, we reported the results of a special survey on hiring and wages. A similar survey was conducted in November ... the results are in.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Assessing the Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Part-Time Employment

Economic Brief

October 2016, No. 16-10

Andreas Hornstein and David A. Price

Blog Post

Virginia's Labor Market Recovery Resumes

Regional Matters

August 24, 2016

Virginia gained jobs at a brisk pace during 2015, but the pace slowed during the first five months of 2016 and has only recently picked up again. Employment growth by industry and by metro area varies substantially.

Ann Battle Macheras

Blog Post

Survey Says: Employers' Hiring and Wage Plans

Regional Matters

May 27, 2016

In May, the Richmond Fed added questions to our regular monthly surveys to explore employer opinions on hiring, employee retention, and wage plans.

Aileen Watson

Article

The Role of Option Value in College Decisions

Economic Brief

April 2016, No. 16-04

Jessie Romero and Nicholas Trachter

Publication

Measuring CEO Compensation

Economic Brief

March 2016, No. 16-3

Arantxa Jarque and David A. Price

Article

Why Do College Graduates Earn More?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2015

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

The Competitiveness of Inner Cities

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2015

Are the majority of inner cities experiencing a renaissance thanks to rapid gentrification, or is growth limited to a small number of high-technology regions, resulting in inequality among metropolitan areas?

Lisa Davis

Article

Building the Aerospace Cluster in South Carolina

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

State governments that recognize the tremendous economic value that aircraft manufacturing can bring their communities are actively courting such plants to bolster their aerospace clusters.

Richard Kaglic

Article

Claudia Goldin

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

Harvard University economist on the history of women's employment, mapping the gender wage gap, and for-profit colleges

Jessie Romero

Article

How Real is the U.S. Manufacturing Revival?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

Around the Fed

Lisa Davis

Speech

Economic Outlook, April 2015

April 10, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, March 2015

March 31, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Value of High School Employment

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Research Spotlight

David A. Price

Article

Raise the Wage?

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Some argue that there's no downside to a higher minimum wage, but others say the poor would be hit hardest

Wendy Morrison

Article

How the Geography of Jobs Affects Unemployment

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Why job accessibility is limited for some groups and what it means for anti-poverty policies

Frank Muraca

Article

Limiting Bank Size is not the Answer

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Around the Fed

Lisa Davis

Article

The Long View of the Labor Market

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Article

The Dropout Dilemma

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Why do kids drop out of high school, and what can be done to help them finish?

Jessie Romero

Publication

How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Economic Brief

February 2015, No. 15-02

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Working Paper

Equilibrium Price Dispersion Across and Within Stores

Working Paper Series

January 2015, No. 15-01

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Modeling Labor Markets in Macroeconomics: Search and Matching

Working Paper Series

December 2014, No. 14-19

Thomas A. Lubik and Michael U. Krause

Article

Expanding Unemployment Insurance

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Longer unemployment benefits often mean longer unemployment spells, but economists say that's not always a bad thing

Tim Sablik

Article

Moral Hazard and Measurement Hazard

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

John A. Weinberg
(Emeritus)

Article

Investing in People as an Economic Growth Strategy

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Presidents Message

Jeffrey M. Lacker

Publication

Does Enforcement of Employee Noncompete Agreements Impede the Development of Industry Clusters?

Economic Brief

November 2014, No. 14-11

David A. Price

Working Paper

images of location markers with silhouettes of people in them

Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories

Working Paper Series

October 2014, No. 14-18

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange

Speech

Prospects for Growth and Labor Markets

Oct. 9, 2014

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the national economic outlook during the Bank’s Regional Forum in Asheville, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Putting the Beveridge Curve Back to Work

Economic Brief

September 2014, No. 14-09

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

Working Paper

The Complexity of CEO Compensation

Working Paper Series

September 2014, No. 14-16

I study firm characteristics that justify the use of options or refresher grants in the optimal compensation packages for CEOs in the presence of moral hazard.

Arantxa Jarque

Working Paper

Learning and Life Cycle Patterns of Occupational Transitions

Working Paper Series

August 2014, No. 14-15

Aspen Gorry, Devon Gorry and Nicholas Trachter

Publication

The Prevalence of Apprenticeships in Germany and the United States

Economic Brief

August 2014, No. 14-08

Nika Lazaryan, Urvi Neelakantan and David A. Price

Article

Equilibrium

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2014

Equilibrium occurs when supply and demand are balanced, a concept that helps policymakers understand the likely effects of a given policy.

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Economic Outlook, July 2014

July 8, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles (Revised July 2017)

Working Paper Series

June 2014, No. 14-13R

A great uncertainty in the labor market--high unemployment risk, frequent job turnovers, and an unknown career path--prevents young workers from taking too much risk in the financial market. As labor-market uncertainty is resolved over time, workers start taking more risk in their financial portfolios.

Yongsung Chang, Jay H. Hong and Marios Karabarbounis

Publication

Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?

Economic Brief

June 2014, No. 14-06

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Fabian Lange and Tim Sablik

Working Paper

The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration (Revised July 2016)

Working Paper Series

May 2014, No. 14-12R

R. Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak

Publication

Expanding the Scope of Workforce Development

Economic Brief

May 2014, No. 14-05

Kartik B. Athreya, Urvi Neelakantan and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

Young Unskilled Women and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives? (Revised July 2014)

Working Paper Series

April 2014, No. 14-11R

Kartik B. Athreya, Devin Reilly and Nicole B. Simpson

Working Paper

Does Redistribution Increase Output? The Centrality of Labor Supply (Revised December 2016)

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-04R

Kartik B. Athreya, Andrew Owens and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

Economic Outlook, February 2014

Feb. 4, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Feb. 4, 2014, in remarks to students, faculty and community leaders at Shenandoah University in Winchester, Virginia.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Stepping Stone and Option Value in a Model of Postsecondary Education

Working Paper Series

February 2014, No. 14-03

Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2014

Jan. 17, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Human Capital Investment as a Major Financial Decision

Oct. 4, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed teachers at the Council for Economic Education’s 52nd Annual Conference in Baltimore.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

The Shifting and Twisting Beveridge Curve: An Aggregate Perspective

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-16

Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

A Road Map for Efficiently Taxing Heterogeneous Agents (Revised June 2015)

Working Paper Series

September 2013, No. 13-13R

Marios Karabarbounis

Working Paper

The Time-Varying Beveridge Curve

Working Paper Series

August 2013, No. 13-12

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model

Working Paper Series

August 2013, No. 13-11

In a stylized quantitative analysis, we show that the consumption effect dominates, so that unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. We also analyze the welfare-maximizing benefit level and find that it decreases as moving costs increase.

David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren

Publication

Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement?

Economic Brief

August 2013, No. 13-08

Andreas Hornstein and Karl Rhodes

Publication

Implications of Risks and Rewards in College Decisions

Economic Brief

June 2013, No. 13-06

Kartik B. Athreya and David A. Price

Working Paper

Market-based Incentives (Revised May 2016)

Working Paper Series

May 2013, No. 13-05R

Borys Grochulski and Yuzhe Zhang

Publication

Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search

Economic Brief

April 2013, No. 13-04

A new database of online job posting data sheds light on how workers search for jobs.

Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

Banker Compensation, Relative Performance, and Bank Risk (Revised November 2019)

Working Paper Series

March 2013, No. 13-03R

Arantxa Jarque and Edward S. Prescott

Speech

Economic Outlook, December 2012

Dec. 17, 2012

Lacker speaks at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce's Annual Economic Outlook Conference.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Are Depression-Era Employment Swings Overstated?

Economic Brief

November 2012, No. 12-11

Jonathon Lecznar, Jessie Romero and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Working Paper

Accounting for Unemployment: The Long and Short of It

Working Paper Series

November 2012, No. 12-07

In view of the increasing share of long-term unemployment since the 2007-09 recession, we provide an extension of the Shimer (2012) unemployment accounting scheme that allows for both short-term and long-term unemployment and that uses data on the duration distribution of unemployment.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Speech

Economic Outlook, October 2012

Oct. 15, 2012

Lacker Addresses Business and Government Leaders in Roanoke, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Maximum Employment and Monetary Policy

Sept. 18, 2012

Speech before Money Marketeers Sept. 18, 2012

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and Recovery

Economic Brief

June 2012, No. 12-06

Marianna Kudlyak and David A. Price

Working Paper

Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters

Working Paper Series

June 2012, No. 12-04

We show that, whereas during earlier recessions it was sufficient to examine the flows between employment and unemployment to account for the dynamics of the unemployment rate, this was not true in the Great Recession.

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

Technology, Unemployment and Workforce Development in a Rapidly Changing World

May 7, 2012

Lacker Addresses Business and Community Leaders in Greensboro, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data (Revised September 2014)

Working Paper Series

April 2012, No. 12-03R

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev

Publication

Recoveries From Recessions Associated With Banking Crises: How Does This One Compare?

Economic Brief

November 2011, No. 11-11

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, David A. Price and Jonathan Tompkins

Publication

Potential Causes and Implications of the Rise in Long-Term Unemployment

Economic Brief

September 2011, No. 11-09

Andreas Hornstein, Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

Speech

What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

July 28, 2011

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Monetary Policy with Unknown Natural Rates

Economic Brief

July 2011, No. 11-07

Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

Speech

Manufacturing in the New Southern Economy

June 13, 2011

Lacker speaks at Southern Growth's 2011 Chairman's Conference in Roanoke, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics in Hong Kong

Working Paper Series

May 2011, No. 11-02

Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Deferred Pay for Bank Employees: Implications of Hidden Actions with Persistent Effects in Time (Revised September 2015)

Working Paper Series

October 2010, No. 10-16R

Arantxa Jarque and Edward S. Prescott

Working Paper

The Cyclical Price of Labor When Wages Are Smoothed

Working Paper Series

August 2010, No. 10-13

Marianna Kudlyak

Working Paper

On the Job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market

Working Paper Series

June 2010, No. 10-12

Michael U. Krause and Thomas A. Lubik

Publication

Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions

Economic Brief

April 2010, No. 10-04

Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly and Stephen Slivinski

Working Paper

The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor (Revised: March 2013)

Working Paper Series

September 2009, No. 09-12R

Marianna Kudlyak

Working Paper

Unemployment Insurance with a Hidden Labor Market

Working Paper Series

June 2009, No. 09-9

Fernando Álvarez-Parra and Juan M. Sanchez

Publication

Annual Report - 2009

Annual Report

2009

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Systemic Risk and the Pursuit of Efficiency"

Publication

What Income Inequality Measures Can (and Cannot) Tell Us

Economic Brief

November 2008, No. 08-02

Leonardo Martinez and Stephen Slivinski

Working Paper

Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis

Working Paper Series

March 2008, No. 08-1

Michael U. Krause, David Lopez-Salido and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Risky Human Capital and Deferred Capital Income Taxation

Working Paper Series

December 2006, No. 06-13

Borys Grochulski and Tomasz Piskorski

Working Paper

Technology-Policy Interaction in Frictional Labor Markets

Working Paper Series

November 2006, No. 06-10

Andreas Hornstein, Per Krusell and Giovanni L. Violante

Working Paper

The Political Economy of Labor Subsidies

Working Paper Series

September 2006, No. 06-9

Marina Azzimonti, Eva de Francisco and Per Krusell

Working Paper

Technical Appendix for "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment"

Working Paper Series

September 2006, No. 06-8

Andreas Hornstein, Per Krusell and Giovanni L. Violante

Working Paper

Understanding How Employment Responds to Productivity Shocks in a Model with Inventories

Working Paper Series

August 2006, No. 06-6

Yongsung Chang, Andreas Hornstein and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Working Paper

Home Production

Working Paper Series

May 2006, No. 06-4

Yongsung Chang and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

On the Aggregate and Distributional Implications of Productivity Differences across Countries

Working Paper Series

February 2006, No. 06-2

Andrés Erosa, Tatyana Koreshkova and Diego Restuccia

Working Paper

Reputation, Career Concerns, and Job Assignments (Revised Apr. 2009)

Working Paper Series

January 2006, No. 06-1R

Leonardo Martinez

Publication

Annual Report - 2006

Annual Report

2006

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve"

Working Paper

Optimal Wealth Taxes with Risky Human Capital

Working Paper Series

December 2005, No. 05-13

Borys Grochulski and Tomasz Piskorski

Working Paper

A Quantitative Theory of the Gender Gap in Wages

Working Paper Series

September 2005, No. 05-9

Andrés Erosa, Luisa Fuster and Diego Restuccia

Working Paper

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Parental Leave Policies

Working Paper Series

August 2005, No. 05-8

Andrés Erosa, Luisa Fuster and Diego Restuccia

Working Paper

Do Technological Improvements in the Manufacturing Sector Raise or Lower Employment?

Working Paper Series

April 2005, No. 05-2

Yongsung Chang and Jay H. Hong

Working Paper

The Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies: A Near-Equivalence Result

Working Paper Series

April 2005, No. 05-1

Andreas Hornstein, Per Krusell and Giovanni L. Violante

Speech

Technology and Labor Markets

Jan. 18, 2005

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke January 18, 2005 at the Guilford College, University of North Carolina -- Greensboro, FNB Southeast in Greensboro, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities

Working Paper Series

December 2004, No. 04-8

Andreas Hornstein, Per Krusell and Giovanni L. Violante

Working Paper

Productivity, Employment, and Inventories

Working Paper Series

December 2004, No. 04-9

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Andreas Hornstein and Yongsung Chang

Publication

Annual Report - 2004

Annual Report

2004

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "What's Driving Wage Inequality? The Effects of Technical Change on the Labor Market"

Working Paper

Heterogeneity and Aggregation in the Labor Market: Implications for Aggregate Preference Shifts

Working Paper Series

January 2004, No. 03-17

Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim

Working Paper

Labor Supply Shifts and Economic Fluctuations

Working Paper Series

July 2003, No. 03-7

Yongsung Chang and Frank Schorfheide

Working Paper

On the Employment Effect of Technology: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing for 1958-1996

Working Paper Series

July 2003, No. 03-6

Yongsung Chang and Jay H. Hong

Working Paper

From Individual to Aggregate Labor Supply: A Quantitative Analysis based on a Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomy

Working Paper Series

July 2003, No. 03-5

Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim

Working Paper

Vintage Capital as an Origin of Inequalities

Working Paper Series

August 2002, No. 02-2

Giovanni L. Violante, Per Krusell and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928-37

Working Paper Series

August 2001, No. 01-7

We study the behavior of output, employment, consumption, and investment in Germany during the Great Depression of 1928-37. In this time period, real wages were countercyclical, and productivity and fiscal policy was procyclical.

Jonas D.M. Fisher and Andreas Hornstein

Working Paper

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bargaining

Working Paper Series

July 2001, No. 01-4

Huberto M. Ennis

Working Paper

Sticky Prices and Inventories: Production Smoothing Reconsidered

Working Paper Series

March 2001, No. 01-6

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Andreas Hornstein

Publication

Annual Report - 1998

Annual Report

1998

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Mercantilists and Classicals: Insights from Doctrinal History"