Employment and Labor Markets

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Measuring AI Adoption

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 9, 2026

John Haltiwanger discusses his work with the U.S. Census Bureau to improve the tracking of AI usage by workers and their employers. Haltiwanger, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland, shared this research during the August 2026 CORE Week held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

How Prevalent Is Holding Multiple Jobs in the Postpandemic Labor Market?

Economic Brief

September 2026, No. 26-29

Official labor market statistics tend to understate informal and platform-based work, such as ride-hailing and food-delivery services.

Kyle DeMaria and Urvi Neelakantan

Blog Post

Rising Fuel Costs in Fifth District States

Regional Matters

September 3, 2026

This post explores how state and local economies in the Fifth District might be impacted by elevated fuel costs.

Taylor Pessin

Podcast

The Rise in Long-Term Unemployment

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 2, 2026

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso discuss their research on the long-term unemployed, including the factors like AI adoption that could be affecting the movement of people into and out of this employment status and the broader economic implications of these labor market flows. Macaluso and Borovičková are senior economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Reemployment Challenges for the Long-Term Jobless

Macro Minute

September 1, 2026

Those who have been out of work for a year or more are experiencing an even more challenging labor market than usual.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Aggregate or Structural? Diagnosing the Rise in Unemployment

Economic Brief

August 2026, No. 26-27

Workers less exposed to artificial intelligence account for roughly half of the aggregate decline in the job-finding rate since mid-2023.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Article

Steady Overall With Pockets of Stress

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2026

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Podcast

Artificial Intelligence and the Entry-Level Worker

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 12, 2026

Erik Hurst discusses his research on the potential impacts of AI adoption on the labor market, in particular entry-level workers and their human capital development over time through the acquisition of new skills and knowledge. Hurst is the Roman Family Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and John E. Jeuck Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.

Article

Worker Types, AI Exposure and the Recent Decline in Job-Finding Rates

Economic Brief

August 2026, No. 26-26

The recent rise in long-term unemployment is largely due to a decline in unemployment outflow rates, especially the rate at which unemployed workers find jobs.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Article

The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment

Economic Brief

August 2026, No. 26-25

The recent rise in long-term unemployment is largely due to a decline in unemployment outflow rates, especially the rate at which unemployed workers find jobs.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Steady Overall With Pockets of Stress

Regional Matters

July 31, 2026

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

What Unemployment Insurance Claims Can — and Cannot — Tell Us

Economic Brief

July 2026, No. 26-24

Continuing claims are falling, but this might not necessarily be good news.

Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Where Degrees Meet Demand: Occupational Projections and Higher Education

Regional Matters

June 25, 2026

Employment projections give us a forward-looking perspective into where demand for workers is expanding and contracting in fields across the economy, offering valuable insight to employers and employees alike.

Davy Sell, Stephanie Norris and Anthony Tringali

Article

Forecasting Wage Growth Using Months Supply

Economic Brief

June 2026, No. 26-20

A new measure of labor market tightness could help produce more accurate forecasts of wage growth.

Grey Gordon

Blog Post

Job Openings Up, But Jury Still Out

Macro Minute

June 23, 2026

At first glance, labor market activity seems to be picking up, but other metrics suggest otherwise.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Surprisingly Solid Demand but Signs of Strain Persist

Regional Matters

June 19, 2026

In the lead up to the June FOMC meeting, businesses reported increased cost pressures, surprisingly resilient demand, and limited pricing power.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Podcast

Explaining the K-Shaped Economy

Speaking of the Economy

June 17, 2026

Urvi Neelakantan describes how employment, income growth and consumption can differ between groups of households and reviews recent trends in this divergence of economic outcomes. Neelakantan is a senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024

Working Paper Series

May 2026, No. 26-10

Population aging and educational upgrading explain most long-run movements in aggregate trends, while cohort effects drive large gender differences in participation.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Article

The Postpandemic City: Urban Employment Centers and Commuting in the Fifth District

Economic Brief

June 2026, No. 26-18

Employer-reported data through 2023 reveal a divergence in postpandemic commuting patterns across four large metropolitan areas within the Fifth District.

Santiago M. Pinto

Article

The Natural Beveridge Curve

Economic Brief

May 2026, No. 26-17

Analyzing the gap between the actual and natural Beveridge curves gives policymakers a better sense of how much stabilization policy can accomplish.

Katherine Anderson and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Modelling Unemployment Insurance in the Real World

Economic Brief

May 2026, No. 26-16

One model suggests that the optimal unemployment insurance program would be set up pretty close to what the U.S. currently has.

Spencer Cooper-Ohm and Nicholas Trachter

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now

Regional Matters

May 1, 2026

Businesses reported limited impact from the Middle East conflict in the lead up to the April FOMC meeting, with consumers continuing to spend and more cost pressure and supply chain disruption still to come.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Working Paper

U.S. Import Tariffs in 2025: Realized Tariff Rates, Import Prices, and Local Labor-Market Effects

Working Paper Series

April 2026, No. 26-08

The authors analyze the effects of the 2025 U.S. import tariffs on import prices and local labor markets and find that the tariffs did not generate large labor market changes in either direction.

Marina Azzimonti and Jacob Titcomb

Podcast

The Connection Between Health and Employment in Rural Communities

Speaking of the Economy

April 15, 2026

Surekha Carpenter and Bethany Greene discuss the connections between the health of workers and the health of labor markets in rural communities. Carpenter is a senior research analyst and Greene is a regional economist, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Working on Wellness: The Rural Health and Employment Link

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

The relationship between health and employment is bidirectional and intensified by structural and geographic factors unique to rural communities.

Surekha Carpenter, Bethany Greene and Stephanie Norris

Blog Post

Application Accepted: Business Formation Boom Continues

Macro Minute

April 14, 2026

This week's post explores the most recent data on business applications to assess prospects for business formation and employment growth.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

What Are You Working On?

Speaking of the Economy

April 8, 2026

For the 200th episode of Speaking of the Economy, four economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond share their current research and how that work connects with the Fed's mission: Nicholas Trachter on the growth in firm size, Urvi Neelakantan on the relationship between going to college and investing in the stock market, Russell Wong on the impact of AI on employment, and Horacio Sapriza on the ability of central bank communications to stabilize financial markets.

Podcast

Tariffs: What We Have Learned One Year Later

Speaking of the Economy

April 1, 2026

Renee Haltom shares what the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has learned from its business contacts and regional surveys about the impact of trade policy changes since last April. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president of sensing, engagement and publications at the Richmond Fed.

Blog Post

How Might AI Change the Workplace? Evidence From Corporate Executives

March 25, 2026

By leveraging timely survey data from financial decision-makers, our study provides novel firm-level evidence on how AI is affecting productivity and the workforce.

Salomé Baslandze, Zach Edwards, John Graham, Ty McClure, Brent Meyer, Michael Sparks, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Daniel Weitz

Blog Post

Regional Firms Report Wage Growth Returns to Normal Levels

Regional Matters

March 24, 2026

The Richmond Fed business surveys found that realized and expected wage growth returned to prepandemic levels.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Blog Post

A JOLTing Labor Market Situation?

Macro Minute

March 24, 2026

By itself, the combination of low hiring and low separations may not necessarily raise concerns, so what makes some economy watchers uneasy about the current labor market?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Tentative Momentum as Renewed Uncertainty Looms

Regional Matters

March 20, 2026

Businesses sounded more upbeat in the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting but still hesitated to hire and raise prices. New global uncertainty could temper this optimism going forward.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Monthly Job Reports: How Do Private Sources Fare?

Economic Brief

March 2026, No. 26-08

Alternative data sources seem to replicate trends of official data sources, but accuracy can be challenging at higher frequencies.

Chen Yeh

Survey

Measuring Success: Results from the 2025 Survey of Community College Outcomes

Feb. 25, 2026

The first release of findings from the 2025 Survey of Community College Outcomes features aggregate Richmond Fed Success Rates across 189 institutions and highlights the continued value in a community college specific measure of student success.

Stephanie Norris, Davy Sell and Anthony Tringali

Article

Business Cycles: Is the Current Economic Environment Different?

Economic Brief

February 2026, No. 26-07

The current business cycle episode does not fit neatly into historical templates.

Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Rising Inequality at the Bottom: Low-Wage Workers Falling Behind Their Closest Peers

Macro Minute

February 24, 2026

Following the COVID-19 pandemic recession, earnings growth for lower-income earners significantly outpaced the median earner. The situation has now reversed with their earnings growth below the median, but the implications for earnings inequality are complicated.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment

Working Paper Series

February 2026, No. 26-01

How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment?

Ping Wang and Russell Wong

Article

Charting Career and Education Pathways

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

Through initiatives like Invest in What's Next, the Richmond Fed supports a healthy job market by helping students make informed decisions about future work and education pathways.

Charles Gerena

Article

Does Household Labor Supply Insure Against Income Shocks?

Economic Brief

February 2026, No. 26-06

Household income and wealth levels play notable roles in how spousal labor supply responds to a drop in family income.

Yongsung Chang, Elin Halvorsen and Marios Karabarbounis

Blog Post

All in the Same Boat: A Look at States’ Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

February 10, 2026

Has the slowing in the labor market been common across states? Some states may be bearing the brunt of a softening labor market more than others.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Responding to a Spouse's Lost Income

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

Does a spouse increase the amount they work when their spouse loses income? Recent research provides new evidence of this added worker effect.

Spencer Cooper-Ohm

Blog Post

Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update

Regional Matters

February 5, 2026

The Richmond Fed's December business surveys found that businesses were increasingly providing employees with access to artificial intelligence (AI) tools but were less likely to have incorporated AI into their operations.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

Regional Impacts of a Shrinking Federal Government

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 4, 2026

Andy Bauer and Amy Liu discuss the direct and spillover economic effects of the recent reductions in federal employment and spending on the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. Bauer is a regional executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Liu is a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-author of the DMV Monitor.

Article

Public and Private Labor Market Data: Insights From the Government Shutdown

Economic Brief

February 2026, No. 26-04

The government shutdown showed the value of private sector data sources but also the difficulty in interpreting them and reconciling potential differences with official sources.

Claudia Macaluso

Article

How Does the Foreign-Born Population Affect Labor Force Growth?

Economic Brief

January 2026, No. 26-03

Labor force growth has slowed, and aging populations are a significant factor.

Santiago M. Pinto

Podcast

Keeping Up on the Economy with Anna Kovner

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 14, 2026

Anna Kovner, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, reviews the significant, rapid changes in trade policy, immigration policy, and the size of the federal workforce in 2025. She also discusses how the Richmond Fed has assessed the economic impact of these changes through its research and outreach programs.

Article

The Value of Government Services: Evidence From Flight Delays During the 2025 Shutdown

Economic Brief

December 2025, No. 25-45

An estimated 1 million extra work-hours of delay were incurred during the 43 days of shutdown beginning Oct. 1, costing $66 million nationwide.

Russell Wong

Podcast

Year in Review with Tom Barkin

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 17, 2025

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back at 2025 and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of uncertainty and changes in the economy, including trade policy, consumer sentiment, and labor market demand and supply. He also discusses how monetary policymakers have navigated the year.

Blog Post

Phantom Figures: Missing Data in October

Macro Minute

December 16, 2025

The government shutdown interrupted the collection of price data in October, but what would "actual" conditions have looked like in October if data were available?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Virginia's Small Farmers Weather Unpredictability

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

Small farmers are important producers in Virginia's agriculture industry, but they face mounting costs and uncertain revenue. What keeps them going?

Katrina Mullen

Article

Operating With Limited Data

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

While the government shutdown delayed official data releases, private sector data and outreach efforts helped Fed policymakers keep a pulse on the economy.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: The Economy Kept Chugging Along

Regional Matters

December 12, 2025

Since the last FOMC cycle, businesses said growth has been solid, but narrow; the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium continues.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Working Paper

Spousal Labor Response to Primary Income: Identification and Heterogeneity (Revised August 2026)

Working Paper Series

November 2025, No. 25-13R

When a primary worker' income drops unexpectedly, spousal labor supply and earnings increase to compensate, especially in young households with limited financial assets.

Yongsung Chang, Elin Halvorsen and Marios Karabarbounis

Blog Post

Something Fishy With Job Openings?

Macro Minute

November 18, 2025

Something fishy about job openings? As of August, there were 7.2 million job openings, compared to the five-year pre-pandemic average of 6.4 million. This post will explore the V/U ratio and the labor market.

Samina Stack and John O'Trakoun

Article

Anton Korinek

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

Anton Korinek provides insight on how rapid advances in AI might reshape the nature of work and how economists can help society prepare.

Tim Sablik

Article

Finding New Opportunities for Federal Workers

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

As the federal government shrinks its payroll, local stakeholders are working to bring displaced employees back into the workforce.

Matthew Wells

Podcast

What Businesses Are Saying

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 5, 2025

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom, and Matt Martin share what they are hearing about economic conditions from their business contacts in the Fifth District. They also discuss variations in conditions by sector and region as well as how businesses currently view labor markets and price levels. Bauer, Haltom, and Martin are regional executives at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Credit Supply Shocks During a Nonfinancial Recession

Economic Brief

November 2025, No. 25-41

Banks' behavior can still amplify economic downturns even when they are not the source of a crisis and have robust liquidity and capital positions.

Carlo Alcaraz, Nicolas Amoroso, Rodolfo Oviedo, Alex Rivadeneira, Brenda Samaniego de la Parra and Horacio Sapriza

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Few Signs of Major Shifts

Regional Matters

October 31, 2025

Conversations with businesses since the last FOMC cycle did not suggest any big shifts in the economy; economic conditions remained stable.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Time for a Career Change? Inter-Industry Job Mobility in the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2025

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath led to increased job switching, but the recent cooling of the labor market could slow mobility.

Bethany Greene
Regional Economist

Article

Understanding the Potential Impact of H-1B Visa Program Changes

Economic Brief

October 2025, No. 25-39

Proposed changes to the H-1B program, including the new one-time $100,000 processing fee, could have widespread effects.

Nicolas Morales

Blog Post

Rising Unemployment Risks: Suddenly, Then Gradually

Macro Minute

October 14, 2025

How have asymmetric unemployment rate movements unfolded during previous recessions?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Fifth District Firms' Employment Expectations for the Year Ahead: Findings From the September Business Surveys

Regional Matters

October 3, 2025

While most Fifth District firms intend to increase full-time employment or hold it steady due to projected demand increase, others intend to decrease through attrition or a combination of attrition and layoffs.

Nathan Sumner
Business Analyst

Blog Post

Payroll Revisions: An Upcoming September Surprise?

Macro Minute

September 30, 2025

Are some months noisier than others when estimating payroll employment growth?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Do Federal Layoffs Have Ripple Effects on Local Economies?

Economic Brief

September 2025, No. 25-36

Federal employees make up 1.8 percent of the U.S. workforce, but they tend to be concentrated in specific regions.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

What Businesses Are Saying: Activity Up, but Expectations Mixed

Regional Matters

September 19, 2025

This post shares sensing insights from business contacts in recent weeks. Overall, businesses said activity increased somewhat while expectations remained mixed, labor availability improved, and more cost passthrough was expected.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Blog Post

The Foreign-Born Workforce in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

September 4, 2025

Foreign-born workers have made outsized contributions to the Fifth District's labor force growth, but the concentration of these workers varies across industry and geography.

Bethany Greene and Anthony Tringali

Podcast

The Disconnected Youth Problem

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 3, 2025

Claudia Macaluso shares what she has learned about young people who are not employed, in school, or undergoing training, and what potential interventions could bring these disconnected youth into the workforce. Macaluso is a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Answers Don't Come Easy

Macro Minute

August 26, 2025

Were declining response rates to the Current Employment Statistics survey responsible for July's outsized data revision?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

How to Gauge Maximum Employment

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-32

The Fed's "maximum employment" mandate isn't directly measurable, so how can we tell if the economy is close?

Marios Karabarbounis

Blog Post

July's Labor Market: Dumbbell-Shaped Dangers

Macro Minute

August 12, 2025

As the least experienced and longest unemployed workers face rising challenges finding jobs, there are signs of "dumbbell-shaped" danger for the labor market.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Recent Employment Changes in the Washington, D.C., Area

Regional Matters

July 17, 2025

The DMV region comprises a large share of federal employees who have experienced both employment declines and elevated unemployment claims. Employment changes are occurring in the private sector as well.

Taylor Pessin

Podcast

What's Keeping Workers on the Sidelines?

Speaking of the Economy

July 16, 2025

Andy Bauer and John Bailey Jones discuss the factors that have shaped the demand for and supply of labor in recent years. They also talk about the barriers to labor force participation in Maryland, including lack of affordable child care and housing. Bauer is vice president and regional executive for the Baltimore branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis.

Article

Impacts of Government Spending Changes on Local Economies

Economic Brief

July 2025, No. 25-28

Local multipliers mean changes in government spending can have amplified effects on local economies.

Santiago M. Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

South Carolina's Globalized Economy

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Driven by the auto industry, the Palmetto State is a global economic player. How will tariff uncertainty impact its businesses?

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Female-Dominated Industries Driving Payroll Growth

Macro Minute

July 1, 2025

In May, the industries that contributed most to job growth also employ more women than average. This may have ramifications for young job seekers and provide insight into gender divides in employment during recessions.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Fifth District Employment: Findings From the June Business Surveys

Regional Matters

June 24, 2025

Survey data indicates that many Fifth District firms expect to keep employment levels relatively stable, with uncertainty around economic conditions and consumer behavior remaining an important consideration.

Nathan Sumner and Jason Kosakow

Article

Human Capital Investment: Would Higher-Order Skills Help Disconnected Youth?

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-24

In 2024, a significant number (12 percent) of 16-24 year olds were classified as "NEET" (not in employment, education or training).

Claudia Macaluso

Article

Researching Rural Economies

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Understanding the place-based economics of rural areas is crucial for identifying the challenges they face and potential opportunities for economic growth in each community.

Anna Kovner
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Podcast

How the Fed Mines Data for New Insights

Speaking of the Economy

May 14, 2025

Nicolas Morales, Horacio Sapriza, and Chen Yeh take listeners behind the scenes on how they work with detailed, confidential datasets about businesses and individuals. They also discuss how they gain insights on topics like immigration, credit markets, and labor productivity while safeguarding privacy rights. Morales is an economist, Sapriza is a senior economist and policy advisor, and Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

How Big Is the Nonprofit Sector?

Macro Minute

March 25, 2025

The size and role the nonprofit sector play in the economy may have contributed to the slowdown of services spending in January.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Hiring Puzzle: Why Do Firms Decrease Hiring So Much in Recessions?

Economic Brief

March 2025, No. 25-10

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.

Katarína Borovičková

Podcast

Has the Wave of New Businesses Crested?

Speaking of the Economy

March 19, 2025

Chen Yeh provides an update on the longevity and broader impacts of the surge in start-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Early Childhood Education in the Fifth District: The Challenges and the Opportunities

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2025

The benefits of early childhood education are well known, but factors such as cost and a shortage of child care workers still present obstacles.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Blog Post

What Might Cuts to the Federal Government Workforce Mean for the Fifth District?

Regional Matters

March 4, 2025

A reduction of the federal workforce will affect D.C., Maryland, and Virginia more extensively than the rest of the country, but much depends on how and where the cuts occur.

Stephanie Norris, Santiago M. Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Sifting Through Revisions, Labor Market Seems Strong

Macro Minute

February 25, 2025

What is the nature of the BLS data revisions, and do they change our understanding of the current state of the labor market?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Looking Ahead at 2025

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 19, 2025

Renee Haltom and Sonya Waddell share what recent surveys and conversations with Fifth District contacts reveal about the expectations of businesses for their own prospects and the economy as a whole, as well as firms' concerns about inflation, labor markets, and other potential challenges in 2025. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Will the Pandemic Surge in Employer Business Formation Last?

Economic Brief

January 2025, No. 25-01

Related indicators have been reverting to historical trends, suggesting the startup boom may be subsiding.

Chen Yeh

Working Paper

The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream

Working Paper Series

January 2025, No. 25-01

Research shows the H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science occupations and helped drive the shift in IT production from the United States to India.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2024, No. 24-40

The topics presented included unconventional monetary and fiscal policy, global inflation patterns and worker responses to labor shocks.

Matthew Wells

Working Paper

Minority Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

Working Paper Series

December 2024, No. 24-16

This paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races.

Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025

Regional Matters

December 20, 2024

The Richmond Fed's November business survey special questions revealed firms' expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. Firms also shared if they have or plan to reduce the size of their workforce in the coming months.

Joseph Mengedoth and Jason Kosakow

Working Paper

Assortative Matching and Wages: The Role of Selection

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-14

Results imply that encouraging high-wage firms to hire low-wage workers may be less effective at reducing wage inequality than wage patterns suggest.

Katarína Borovičková and Robert Shimer

Survey

First Look: The 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes

Nov. 19, 2024

In 2024, 121 schools from across all five states in the Fifth District participated in the Survey of Community College Outcomes. We also expanded our survey to include more detailed data on community college wraparound services.

Survey

First Look: The 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes

Nov. 19, 2024

In 2024, 121 schools from across all five states in the Fifth District participated in the Survey of Community College Outcomes. We also expanded our survey to include more detailed data on community college wraparound services.

Article

Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

When examining the effects of H-1B immigration on the labor market, researchers found these immigrants don't seem to displace native workers overall, often complementing their skills instead.

Lindsay Li

Blog Post

Rural Populations Face Higher and More Volatile Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

November 19, 2024

Rural communities appear to face higher unemployment rates and grapple with economic challenges that are distinct from their urban neighbors.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-13

This paper explores the role of technological shocks and if their impact triggers a response that resembles business cycles.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

To Whom It May Concern: Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-35

Recent research suggests that there are meaningful differences in the content of recommendation letters correlated with gender, race and ethnicity.

Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner

Article

The Persistent Decline of LFP Rates for Older Individuals Around the Pandemic

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-34

Some inferred early retirement or unexpected wealth gains played a role, but the data suggest that these drops were either not very persistent or reflected as part of long-run trends.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Podcast

The Role of Anchor Institutions in Regional Economies

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 16, 2024

Deborah Diamond and Adam Scavette discuss how anchor institutions such as universities and hospitals fit into the economic life of communities. Diamond is director of the Anchor Economy Initiative at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Scavette is a regional economist at the Baltimore office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Decreasing the Gap Between Richer and Poorer Workers

Economic Brief

October 2024, No. 24-32

While closing the gap is difficult to tackle directly through policy, there are potential avenues for policymakers to help.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Working Paper

Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation for Economics Ph.D. Students (Revised October 2025)

Working Paper Series

October 2024, No. 24-11R

Findings suggest there are meaningful differences in the content of recommendation letters correlated with the gender, race, and ethnicity of the candidate, which matter in predicting early career outcomes.

Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner

Blog Post

Job Finding Rates Are Falling

Macro Minute

October 8, 2024

Looking into what types of workers are having difficulty finding a job sheds light on the recent rise in the unemployment rate.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

What Yesterday's Economy Tells Us About Today

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 25, 2024

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back on recent economic trends and how they have shaped the current state of the national economy.

Article

When Uncle Sam Watched Rosie's Kids

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

To support women working on the homefront in World War II, the U.S. government funded a temporary nationwide child care program.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Labor Market Concerns? Neither Here nor There

Macro Minute

September 24, 2024

A softening in the labor market has sparked recession concerns, but comparing the recent uptick in the claims to historical trends seems to indicate the labor market may instead just be normalizing.

Nathan Robino

Blog Post

Are College Towns Recession Proof?

Regional Matters

September 19, 2024

Although the communities surrounding universities experienced some shielding effects from previous recessions, the unemployment rate actually increased in these areas following the COVID-19 recession.

Adam Scavette and Robert Calvert Jump

Blog Post

Boeing South Carolina's Economic Impact: Ten Years After Opening

Regional Matters

September 12, 2024

South Carolina's recruitment of a Boeing assembly plant to North Charleston in the late 2000s boosted the state's aerospace sector and Charleston's local labor market over the subsequent decade.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Podcast

Not All Career Ladders Are Created Equal

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 11, 2024

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso describe their research on differences in wage growth between workers as they progress in their careers.

Blog Post

Virginia's Employment Recovery: Now and Then

Regional Matters

September 5, 2024

The pace of hiring has recently slowed in Virginia, but month-over-month growth in the state continues to outpace the national rate, reversing much of the trend of slower growth seen in the post-COVID-19 expansion.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Understanding the Lack of Skill Specialization in Peru

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-29

Peru shows that a brisk pace of job reallocation has the potential to significantly inhibit occupational skill specialization, potentially contributing to human capital and productivity deficits.

Andrea Atencio De Leon, Munseob Lee and Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

Are Labor Shortages in Small Cities and Rural Areas Worse Than Urban Ones?

Regional Matters

August 15, 2024

Rural areas were hit hard with labor shortages during COVID-19, more so than their urban counterparts. However, the tides have turned with rural wage growth now exceeding that of urban areas.

Renee Haltom and Jason Kosakow

Article

How Can We Make a Progressive Tax System More Efficient?

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-26

A progressive tax system may reduce the incentive for households to increase their income.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Flexible Work and Women's Participation

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Women disproportionately took on the burden of the heightened need for child care during COVID-19, hitting their labor force participation hard. Hybrid work and work from home seem to have helped many of them return to employment.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Podcast

Do Employers Have Too Much Power in Labor Markets?

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 7, 2024

Chen Yeh discusses the differences in how much power companies have in labor markets and how that affects employees and their wages. Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

The Productivity Puzzle: AI, Technology Adoption and the Workforce

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-25

Technology improvements may not matter as much as the age and experience of the workforce.

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Blog Post

Visualizing the Breadth of Job Gains: A Follow-Up

Macro Minute

August 6, 2024

With a newly developed index of payroll growth dispersion, the author shows how it differs from the BLS payroll diffusion index and discusses some implications from July's employment report.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Commuting Patterns and Characteristics of Fifth District Counties

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-24

What do commuting patterns look like for Fifth District counties, and what do they tell us about a county's residents?

Santiago M. Pinto and Sierra Stoney

Article

Raghuram Rajan

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Economist Raghuram Rajan on leading a central bank, creating a digital payment system, and India's future in professional services.

David A. Price

Blog Post

Visualizing the Breadth of Job Gains

Macro Minute

July 16, 2024

With sentiment about the labor market appearing to soften, we explore some ways to visualize the breadth of recent jobs growth across industries.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Diving Into Private Fixed Investment

Macro Minute

July 2, 2024

This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Who Is Supplying the Labor for Recent Employment Growth in the Rural Fifth District?

Regional Matters

June 20, 2024

This post explores how changes in total population, out-of-the-labor-force population, and unemployment explain employment growth across the Fifth District's rural counties.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Article

Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-19

What are early studies suggesting about how AI may impact labor productivity?

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Article

Skill Mismatch, Layoffs, and Bouncing Back

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Being laid off often leads to worse future employment outcomes. A mismatch between the laid-off worker's skills and the local job market can play a significant role in this effect.

Brooke Hansbrough

Blog Post

Employment Change: Are Workers Coming or Going?

Regional Matters

June 14, 2024

Results from the Richmond Fed's May monthly business surveys indicate that for now, firms report employment gains that are driven by increased hiring more than declining separations.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Vice President

Article

Return-to-Office Orders: A Survey Analysis of Employment Impacts

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-16

Negative impacts seem to be more muted than expected, and some firms say RTO increased employment.

Grey Gordon and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Connecting Women Economists

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

The Richmond Fed's Center for Advancing Women in Economics launched a fellowship program this year as part of its multifaceted approach to raising the visibility of women economists.

Charles Gerena

Article

How Do College-Educated Immigrants Affect US Firms and Workers?

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-15

Most native U.S. workers seem to benefit from having immigrant coworkers.

Nicolas Morales

Article

Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Is There a One-Size-Fits-All Job Ladder?

Economic Brief

May 2024, No. 24-14

Not everyone continues to progress into better-paying jobs.

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso

Article

Labor Supply and COVID-19 Unemployment Insurance

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2024

Following the expansion of unemployment insurance during COVID-19, researchers found that there are different effects for low-wage businesses and high-wage businesses, as well as for different UI policies.

Larissa Chan

Blog Post

Are Workers Becoming More Anxious?

Macro Minute

May 7, 2024

Anxiety about possible job loss appears to be associated with actual changes in worker behavior, lowering the frequency of job switching in the economy.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Tipping: From Scourge of Democracy to American Ritual

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Over the course of the 20th century, tipping went from rare and reviled to an almost uniquely American custom. We still like to complain about it.

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery (Revised March 2025)

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-04R

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior.

Parag Mahajan, Nicolas Morales, Kevin Shih, Mingyu Chen and Agostina Brinatti

Podcast

Immigration Policy and the Development of the Tech Sector in the U.S. and India

Speaking of the Economy

April 3, 2024

Richmond Fed economist Nicolas Morales shares his research on immigration policy and how the regulation of the flow of information technology workers from India to the United States during the 1990s benefited both countries' IT sectors.

Article

Developments in Antitrust Policy Against Labor Market Monopsony

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-11

The effects of monopsony seem to be getting more attention recently.

Chen Yeh

Blog Post

Remotely Interesting? Sensing Tools Shed Light on On-Site Expectations in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

March 26, 2024

Our March business surveys included special questions on return-to-office policies and on-site expectations four years after the pandemic motivated a rapid conversion to remote work for a portion of jobs.

Emily Wavering Corcoran
Senior Manager

Blog Post

State Labor Market Update: January 2024 Data Release

Regional Matters

March 11, 2024

This article covers the state-level employment data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for January, written by the Richmond Fed's team of regional economists.

Joseph Mengedoth, Adam Scavette and Laura Dawson Ullrich

Blog Post

Signals From Small Businesses

Macro Minute

March 5, 2024

Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Is Wage Growth Normalizing? What Fifth District Businesses Are Saying About Wages

Regional Matters

February 28, 2024

The Richmond Fed business survey results suggest that wage growth is slowing, and firms expect a return to pre-COVID-19 levels over the next year.

Jason Kosakow and Zach Edwards

Blog Post

Uncertain Outlook for Disabled Employment

Macro Minute

February 27, 2024

Since 2021, there has been a large increase in both the size of the population with disabilities and the disabled labor force participation rate. Expansion of remote work opportunities seems to have contributed to this growth.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Economics in Action

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 21, 2024

Yaa Opoku-Agyeman of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Rachel Lee of Uber Eats talk about their careers as economists and how they have applied their research and analysis skills to address everyday issues.

Blog Post

Investigating the Immigrant Influx

Macro Minute

February 20, 2024

The increasing share of foreign-born immigrant workers is an important influence on today's labor market landscape. The outlook is highly uncertain if this trend will continue.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Labor Productivity Is Popping

Macro Minute

February 13, 2024

Due to an increase in labor productivity, strong wage growth is coexisting with encouraging signs of inflation in recent readings. However, productivity growth has historically shown to be volatile.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Did Unemployment Benefits Discourage Returning to Work During COVID-19?

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 7, 2024

Richmond Fed economists Andreas Hornstein and Marios Karabarbounis discuss their research on unemployment insurance (UI), most recently on the disincentive effects of the substantial expansion of UI benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Article

How Female Labor Supply Shapes Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-04

Several factors include labor market participation, business cycle volatility and responsiveness to the underlying economic environment.

Marios Karabarbounis

News

Bank Initiative Helps Rural Communities Pursue Economic Growth

Jan. 22, 2024

The Richmond Fed's Rural Investment Collaborative will train 20 rural leaders how to create successful proposals for community funding.

Blog Post

How Older Workers Got Their Groove Back

Macro Minute

January 9, 2024

Labor force participation among older workers is on the rise. Concerns about the sustainability of their finances may explain this happening.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

The Great Job Reshuffling

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

If good workers remain hard to find, wages could rise further, pressuring margins and prices in turn. So it's important to understand what's happening in the labor market, and where it may go from here.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Assessing Unemployment Insurance

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

The authors aimed to see whether the benefits of unemployment insurance programs outweigh the incentive to look for a new job when sources of wealth inequality are incorporated.

Brennan Merone

Article

Why Is Returning to the Office Contentious?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2023

CEOs have recently been more insistent on return to office, which is a mixed bag of results. Deal making and spreading the rewards between employers and workers could make the shift less controversial.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

Sorting in the Labor Market

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-41

Do higher-ability workers naturally find their way to higher-productivity firms?

Katarína Borovičková

Podcast

What We Have Learned About Remote Work

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 13, 2023

Claudia Macaluso discusses the surge in workers doing their jobs at home during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing effects of the remote work option on labor markets and the economy as a whole. Macaluso is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

How Are Women Represented in Economic Research at the Fed?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-40

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics discusses how representation can improve.

Marina Azzimonti, Arantxa Jarque and Acacia Wyckoff

Blog Post

What Do Softened Business Expectations Mean for Hiring?

Regional Matters

November 28, 2023

Firms are planning to maintain or increase their workforce in 2024, despite persistent hiring challenges and a recent downturn in short-run expectations. But how would this change if demand decreased unexpectedly?

Zach Edwards

Article

How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-36

Jobs held by temporary workers aren't included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows.

Claudia Macaluso

Working Paper

Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits (Revised December 2024)

Working Paper Series

November 2023, No. 23-11R

This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits.

Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé and Lien Ta

Blog Post

Is the Goods-to-Services Rotation Over?

Macro Minute

November 7, 2023

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

A Penny for Your Thoughts? How Survey Comments Help Us Understand Our Region’s Labor Market

Regional Matters

October 19, 2023

We regularly report the quantitative results from the Richmond Fed business surveys, but participants' comments also provide useful context for changes in local business conditions.

Jason Kosakow, Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

Learning Losses During the Pandemic

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 11, 2023

Santiago Pinto provides evidence of learning losses among K-12 students during the COVID-19 pandemic. He also discusses the causes, distribution and consequences of these losses. Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Parsing the Slow Post-Pandemic Labor Market Recovery of Maryland’s Capital Suburbs

Regional Matters

October 5, 2023

In this article, we look at labor market activity within the Capital Beltway over the past three years to assess what might be contributing to the slower growth north of the Potomac River.

Adam Scavette and Keith Waters

Speech

The New Job Hierarchy

Sept. 28, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

State of the Unions

Macro Minute

September 26, 2023

In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

The Importance of Social Capital

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 20, 2023

Stephanie Norris explains the concept of social capital, its value in the economic development of communities, and the challenges of measuring it. Norris is a senior research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Bringing Talent to Small Towns

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Now that the pandemic has tightened the labor market further, smaller communities are going to have to figure out how to put their best foot forward.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Investing in Women’s Careers

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Many women face the balancing act of managing a successful professional life with the societal expectations that come with being a mother. What impact might this have on a woman's career?

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

A Look at the Impact of the Work-From-Home Revolution

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-28

Workers seem to be in favor, but urban cores may hurt as a result.

Claudia Macaluso

Blog Post

The State of Hiring in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

August 22, 2023

Although our surveys show signs that the labor market may be cooling, many Fifth District firms continue to report difficulty finding workers with the right skill sets.

Zach Edwards

Podcast

The Impact of Marriage on How Much Men Work

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 16, 2023

John Bailey Jones discusses his recent research on the relationship between marital status and the labor force participation of men. Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Circle of Life: What Is the Birth-Death Adjustment?

Macro Minute

August 15, 2023

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

A Mother’s Work Is Never Done?

Macro Minute

August 8, 2023

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

Erin Henry and John O'Trakoun

Article

A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-25

Severe weather shocks can have long-lasting impacts on the macroeconomy.

Toan Phan

Conference

CORE Week, featuring the Climate Economics Conference

July 31 – Aug. 4, 2023

Blog Post

Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?

Regional Matters

July 28, 2023

After two years of tightness, many labor market measures have made notable progress toward reaching more normal levels. But we might still have some time before we see the same for wage growth.

Nicholas Haltom and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

How Much Do Multinational Companies in the U.S. Depend on Immigrant Workers?

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-21

Restrictions on immigration could cause production to shift away from the U.S. to other countries.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Where are the Region's Economies Heading?

Speaking of the Economy

June 28, 2023

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matt Martin share what their business contacts have told them about regional economic conditions in the Fifth District.

Blog Post

The Fifth District Labor Market: Normalization or the Beginning of a Slowdown?

Regional Matters

June 27, 2023

The labor market has surprised economists and forecasters with its resilience. Data from our business surveys indicate that the Fifth District labor market may be cooling.

Zach Edwards and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Conference

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

Article

Goodfriend Memorial Lecture: Knowledge Creation and Diffusion

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-18

The inaugural Marvin Goodfriend lecture, given by Hugo Hopenhayn, discussed how intellectual property rights must trade off incentives for innovation and knowledge diffusion.

Hugo Hopenhayn

Article

Learning From Our District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Last year, the Richmond Fed had over 1,700 community engagements — meetings with bankers, business and community leaders, workers, and public officials. These conversations help us see the region's economy more clearly.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-17

Researchers covered topics including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.

John Mullin and Matthew Wells

Article

Measuring Social Capital Across the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Social capital — the strength of social networks within communities — can be important to economic mobility. We look at how this measure varies for communities across our district.

Stephanie Norris and Adam Scavette

Article

Marriage Is Extra Work

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2023

Blandin, Jones, and Yang sought to answer whether men decide to spend more hours working after becoming married, or whether these men are already working more hours before they get married.

Erin Henry

Podcast

Creative Destruction: The Birth and Death of Firms

Speaking of the Economy

May 17, 2023

Hugo Hopenhayn discusses his research on the factors that affect the entry and exit of firms in a market, as well as the reallocation of labor and other resources that results from this "creative destruction." Hopenhayn is a professor of economics at UCLA and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Unemployment Insurance when the Wealth Distribution Matters (Revised March 2026)

Working Paper Series

May 2023, No. 23-08R

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of unemployment insurance in a life-cycle model, focusing on partial vs. general equilibrium effects.

Facundo Piguillem, Hernán Ruffo and Nicholas Trachter

Article

How Much Do Labor Costs Affect Prices in Recessions and in Expansions?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-14

Wage-price pass throughs may help explain why core goods inflation has risen so much faster in the current expansion than in previous ones.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Unemployment Changes as Recession Indicators

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-13

Changes in unemployment appear to be strong recession predictors, especially when combined with lagged term spreads.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Blog Post

Bend It Like Beveridge

Macro Minute

April 18, 2023

Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Bringing Talent to Small Towns

April 12, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how small towns in the Fifth District are putting their best foot forward to attract talent.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

Business Expectations for 2023

Speaking of the Economy

April 12, 2023

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Waddell discuss the expectations of regional and national business leaders about the economy, based on responses to the CFO Survey and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's regional business surveys during the first quarter of 2023.

Article

Why Do Long-Term Unemployed Workers Struggle to Find New Jobs?

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-10

Two forces may be working against the long-term unemployed in finding new jobs.

Katarína Borovičková

Blog Post

The Landscape of Labor in Leisure and Hospitality

Macro Minute

March 28, 2023

Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

A Labor Drought?

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

Unemployment has dropped and is now basically at pre-pandemic levels. Yet labor force participation has been slow to return.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

Trade-offs in Fulfilling the Fed’s Dual Mandate

Economic Brief

March 2023, No. 23-08

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Are Supersized Wage Increases Over?

Macro Minute

February 14, 2023

Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.

Julian Kikuchi and John O'Trakoun

Podcast

The Pandemic-Era Teacher Shortage

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 1, 2023

Sierra Latham and Sarah Gunn discuss the current shortage of teachers nationally and in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, how supply-demand forces have contributed to this labor market gap, and what is happening in response. Latham is a senior research analyst and Gunn is director of economic education at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Marriage and Work among Prime-Age Men (Revised December 2025)

Working Paper Series

January 2023, No. 23-02R

Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. This Working Paper delves into possible explanations for these results.

Adam Blandin, John Bailey Jones and Fang Yang

Article

Secular Trends in Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-02

Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.

Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Podcast

Navigating Tight Labor Markets

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 4, 2023

Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell discuss recent challenges in finding and retaining workers, and how businesses have changed their recruitment tactics, adjusted wages, and made other changes in response to these challenges. Macaluso is an economist and Waddell is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

How are CDFIs Managing Pandemic-Related Disruptions?

Regional Matters

December 22, 2022

Results from a recent national Fed survey show that community development financial institutions (CDFIs) and the communities they serve are facing less severe disruptions than last year. Still, staffing and other challenges are preventing CDFIs from fully meeting growing demand for their products and services.

Hailey Phelps

Article

Job Mobility During and After the Pandemic

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

In the past few years, job changing in the United States — workers leaving their current employers for new ones — seems to have been on the rise. This development, often called the "Great Resignation," has attracted much attention, but the reasons behind it are far from clear.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Article

Steven Davis

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2022

University of Chicago economist on remote work, changes in recruiting, and business startups after the pandemic.

David A. Price

Podcast

What Surveys Say About the Regional and National Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 7, 2022

Jason Kosakow and Santiago Pinto describe how survey data is gathered and used to assess regional and national economic conditions. Kosakow is survey director and Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speech

Is a Labor Challenge Coming?

Dec. 2, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores whether labor will continue to be in short supply, and what that could mean for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Race and Economic Outcomes: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2022, No. 22-48

Monetary policy, marriage, college admissions, and discrimination and socioeconomic outcomes were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Fifth District Businesses Weigh in on Hiring and Wages

Regional Matters

December 01, 2022

While more than a third of businesses expect to expand their workforce in the coming year, some firms have started to reduce headcount by not replacing outgoing workers. Most businesses would take that approach, or keep employment steady, if demand softened in the near future.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Blog Post

Are Services Serving Up a Wage-Price Spiral?

Macro Minute

November 15, 2022

How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?

John O'Trakoun and Brennan Merone

Article

When Should Employees Be Suspended Instead of Fired?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-45

For some underperforming employees, employers might prefer using suspension rather than outright termination.

Borys Grochulski

Article

How Did Pandemic UI Benefits Affect Employment Recovery in Local Industry Markets?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-44

Pandemic-era unemployment insurance affected recoveries of low-wage job markets and high-wage job markets differently.

Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann and Etienne Lalé

Blog Post

How the CHIPS and Science Act Will Target Economic Development in Distressed Labor Markets

Regional Matters

October 13, 2022

The Recompete Pilot Program intends to boost economic competitiveness in selected underperforming areas by dispersing grants to fund proposed infrastructure, workforce, and business development activities.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Blog Post

How to Get the (High-Skilled) Workers?

Regional Matters

October 6, 2022

Over the past year, firms have had difficulty finding workers. Recent evidence from Fifth District business surveys indicates the difficulty is shifting from lower- to higher-skilled hires.

Nicholas Haltom and Jacob Walker

Blog Post

Lagging Labor Force Participation in Maryland and Virginia

Regional Matters

September 23, 2022

Labor force participation in Maryland and Virginia is down considerably compared to 2019, but different age and gender groups have fallen out of the labor force in the two states.

Joseph Mengedoth
Regional Economist

Article

Changing Recruiting Practices and Methods in the Tight Labor Market

Economic Brief

September 2022, No. 22-36

Data suggest that labor market tightness has meant an increased number of open jobs per unemployed worker and heightened employer recruiting effort per vacancy.

Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Resolving the Gap in Teacher Supply

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

States and school districts are using a variety of policies — including financial incentives — to try to combat a teacher shortage.

Sarah Gunn and Sierra Stoney

Article

The Non-Employment Index

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

A brief review of the development of the Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index, an alternative to the standard unemployment rate that includes all non-employed individuals and accounts for persistent differences in their labor market attachment.

John Mullin

Speech

The Staffing Challenge in Schools and Caregiving

Aug. 24, 2022

President Tom Barkin explores some of the crucial segments lagging behind in the jobs recovery.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Podcast

What’s Happening in Our Region’s Economy? A Focus on Maryland, D.C. and West Virginia

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 24, 2022

Andy Bauer reviews economic conditions in Maryland, the District of Columbia and West Virginia, based on recent conversations with local contacts and analysis of the data. Bauer is a vice president and regional executive at the Richmond Fed, with responsibility for business and community engagement in these parts of the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

Blog Post

Real-Time Signs of Cooling Labor Demand

Macro Minute

August 9, 2022

The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.

Brennan Merone and John O'Trakoun

Article

Measuring Employers’ Market Power

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

How competitive is the U.S. labor market? Answering this question quantitatively is helpful for understanding how wages are affected by labor market power, and thus for understanding how workers will be affected by labor policy choices.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Blog Post

Searching for Soft Spots in Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

August 2, 2022

While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Second-Chance Hiring: Fifth District Efforts to Improve Post-Incarceration Outcomes

Regional Matters

July 29, 2022

In a world where employers are struggling to find workers, facilitating meaningful work and competitive pay for previously incarcerated individuals could improve economic outcomes both for the individuals and their communities.

Laura Dawson Ullrich
Director, Community College Initiative

Article

The Impacts of Immigration: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

July 2022, No. 22-27

How does immigration policy impact economic growth? Do firms that hire more skilled immigrants perform better? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Article

Why Use a Diffusion Index?

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-22

Diffusion indexes can help summarize survey responses, but they have some limitations.

Santiago M. Pinto and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

When Will Labor Markets Return to "Normal?"

Speaking of the Economy

June 22, 2022

Andreas Hornstein and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on changes in the labor market since the pandemic. Hornstein and Lubik are senior advisors at the Richmond Fed.

Article

Employment Barriers in the Rural Fifth District

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

Numerous factors — including population growth, education, housing, transportation, child care, health, and broadband availability — are shaping the differences in employment outcomes between rural and urban communities.

Stephanie Norris, Jessie Romero, Sierra Stoney and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Why Don’t More Young People Buy Stocks?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

Standard life-cycle models of portfolio choice suggest that individuals should participate in the stock market throughout their lives. Yet the data show that this is not typically the case early in life.

Speech

Rethinking the Office

May 26, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how firms can optimize the hybrid work environment.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Can Immigration Help Boost Rural Economies in the Fifth District and Beyond?

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-18

When immigration is restricted in rural areas, native workers don't seem to fill the jobs left empty.

Nicolas Morales

Blog Post

Really Yearning for Real Earnings

Macro Minute

May 17, 2022

Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

The Pandemic, Child Care and Women’s Labor Force Participation

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-16

Unlike in other recessions, women's labor force participation was impacted more than men's. What impact did child care have?

Kartik B. Athreya and Sierra Stoney

Article

Industrial Development and Convergence

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

In this essay, we describe Marvin Goodfriend's Industrial Development model and ponder its lessons for contemporary policy discussions.

Sergio T. Rebelo and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Article

Government Programs and Their Effects on Welfare and Employment: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-13

How did unemployment insurance expansion affect recovery from the pandemic-induced recession? What are the effects of federal minimum wage hikes? A recent research conference addressed these questions and more.

John Mullin

Article

The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-12

The unemployment rate is close to pre-pandemic lows, and job openings are at record highs. Yet, participation and employment rates are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Blog Post

How to Get the Workers?

Regional Matters

March 31, 2022

In our March business survey, we found that firms continue to struggle finding workers across skill levels, particularly in the low- to mid-skill range.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Brush Up Those Resumes, Dust Off That Disco Ball?

Macro Minute

March 29, 2022

While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

The Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from England’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund

Working Paper Series

March 2022, No. 22-02

In this paper, we examine the labor market effects of the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, which targeted eighty-eight of the most deprived areas in England during the early 2000s as part of the Labour Government's National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal.

Robert Calvert Jump and Adam Scavette

Blog Post

The Updated Employment Picture

Regional Matters

March 24, 2022

Revised historical monthly employment and unemployment data provide new clarity on the track of labor market recovery in Fifth District states.

Nicholas Haltom and Jacob Walker

Podcast

Human Capital Decisions and the Future of Work

Speaking of the Economy

March 9, 2022

Renee Haltom, vice president and regional executive, reflects on key insights from the District Dialogues event held Feb. 8, 2022. The discussion focused on changes in the nature of work, the workforce and the skills needed, and how workers and employers are responding.

Speech

Breaking Down the Labor Shortage

March 3, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how the labor shortage story differs across key segments of the economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Rural Nursing Shortage

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

The pandemic has worsened a long-standing national shortage of nurses. Rural communities face the greatest challenges.

Tim Sablik

Article

Pinelopi Goldberg

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

Yale University economist on developing countries, measuring economies by satellite, and the learning crisis.

David A. Price

Blog Post

Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?

Regional Matters

February 25, 2022

Fifth District firms report that two years into the pandemic, they still cannot provide enough goods and services to completely meet customer demand.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Article

Are Firms Using Remote Work to Recruit and Retain Workers?

Economic Brief

February 2022, No. 22-07

Remote work options seem to go hand in hand with greater geographic reach in recruitment efforts for some firms.

Steven J Davis, Claudia Macaluso and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

Labor Market Decisions Over the Life Cycle

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 23, 2022

For the 50th episode of the podcast, hosts Jessie Romero, Charles Gerena and Tim Sablik use previous episodes to explore how labor markets are shaped by the economic choices we make throughout our lifetimes, from childhood to adulthood to old age.

Blog Post

Hiring Problems Persist

Macro Minute

February 22, 2022

Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Calling in Sick to Work

Macro Minute

February 8, 2022

There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.

Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun

Essay

The Economy: What We’ve Learned

Jan. 13, 2022

President Tom Barkin reflects on lessons learned last year and looks forward at what this year could look like for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Measuring Labor Market Power in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Economic Brief

January 2022, No. 22-01

Workers are not fully compensated for their marginal contributions to their employers' revenues, and employers' market power has been increasing since the early 2000s.

Chen Yeh

Podcast

The Flow of Human Capital

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 12, 2022

Mark Bils of the University of Rochester and Niklas Engbom of New York University discuss their research on how easily labor is substituted or shifted between jobs and its implications for policies to bolster human capital.

Blog Post

Strong Start for Job Openings in 2022

Macro Minute

January 11, 2022

While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Blog Post

Rising Wages and Increased Hiring Two Years Into the COVID-19 Pandemic

Regional Matters

January 6, 2022

Fifth District firms increase employment and raise wages in response to a changing economy.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Blog Post

COVID’s Long Shadow on the Labor Market

Macro Minute

December 21, 2021

Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments (Revised April 2025)

Working Paper Series

December 2021, No. 21-16R

The authors document significant heterogeneity in immigrant share across employers in Germany, with large firms spending a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small firms.

Agostina Brinatti and Nicolas Morales

Article

Where Did the Workers Go?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

For many observers, the most exceptional aspect of the COVID-19 economic recovery has been the unprecedented number of unfilled jobs openings.

Kartik B. Athreya

Article

A Pandemic-Era Startup Boom

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

A surge of interest in starting new businesses could reverse a long-running drought.

Tim Sablik

Article

Paycheck Protection and the Pandemic

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

The Paycheck Protection Program was intended to help business owners sustain their employees' wages during the pandemic.

Podcast

A Look Back at 2021

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 8, 2021

Andy Bauer, Matt Martin and Renee Haltom reflect on the past year, sharing what they have learned from their contacts about the national and regional economies that they follow.

Article

Anatomy of a Pandemic Recovery Across Sectors and Regions

Economic Brief

December 2021, No. 21-40

The rebound in employment from pandemic lows varied considerably across regions and sectors.

Andrew Foerster and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Blog Post

How Much for Your Time? Fifth District Firms Struggle to Find Workers

Regional Matters

December 2, 2021

In a tight labor market, Fifth District firms struggle to attract qualified workers.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Article

COVID Transfers Dampening Employment Growth, but Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Economic Brief

November 2021, No. 21-39

Government transfers may allow households to pull back from work to take care of loved ones or engage in other valued activities.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Blog Post

Regional Job Openings and Quits Rates Jolt to New Highs

Regional Matters

November 18, 2021

The Bureau of Labor Statistics started releasing state-level data from the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), giving a unique perspective on labor demand around our District.

Joseph Mengedoth and Jacob Walker

Article